Update: All three Nuggets players who were listed as questionable are in for Game 3. The line is now Timberwolves -3.5 and the total is 205. I’ll still back Denver as the ATS pick and the under on the total.
The defending champions Denver Nuggets are on the ropes as they head north for Game 3 against the Minnesota Timberwolves in the second round of the 2024 NBA Playoffs. The Nuggets dropped both games at home to open this series and looked out of sorts while the Timberwolves seemed like the more experienced and determined side. We’ll see if Denver can grab a game on the road or if Minnesota will effectively finish the series with a home win.
Jamal Murray, Reggie Jackson and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope have all been listed as questionable for this contest. Murray was fined for tossing a heat pad on the court in Game 2 from the bench but avoided a suspension. Even one of those three missing this game would significantly impact Denver’s depth. Rudy Gobert missed Game 2 for personal reasons but has been taken off the injury report for Game 3.
The Timberwolves are 4-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook with the total coming in at 204.5. Minnesota is -175 on the moneyline while Denver is +145.
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves, 9:30 p.m. ET
Pick ATS: Nuggets +4
Denver’s Game 1 loss could’ve been chalked up to several things. The defending champions largely walked through the first round over the Lakers, barely holding leads in that series until the end of games. They could’ve easily overlooked Minnesota coming into the contest. However, to not put forth any fight in Game 2 with your back against the wall is telling. Perhaps the Nuggets are satisfied with one championship and don’t have the drive to get to the top of the mountain again. Maybe they are simply overmatched with Minnesota’s depth. Murray’s injury is clearly impacting his play but that’s no longer an excuse after he’s pushed through it for several games.
Maybe I’m the sucker for a veteran team that has found a way to execute at a high level in clutch time with its back against the wall but I’ll take the Nuggets to at least cover in this game. The defending champions have to respond after the drubbing in Game 2 and I think they do that Friday, even if they don’t end up winning the game.
Over/Under: Under 204.5
Game 1 went over this number while Game 2 went way under, largely because it was a blowout win for Minnesota. Home unders have been a hit for the Timberwolves this season, thanks to their stellar defensive play. The Nuggets have looked abysmal on that end of the floor and will need to clean things up, which I think they do to some extent in Game 3. It’s a low number but I think the under hits tonight.
