The Milwaukee Bucks and the Indiana Pacers will play the fourth game of their Eastern Conference first-round playoff matchup on Sunday, April 28. Tipoff from Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis is set for 7 p.m. ET, and the game will air on TNT. The Pacers lead the series 2-1.
Milwaukee is in a bad spot with injuries. Forward Chris Livingston was ruled out heading into the day with an illness. Star forward Giannis Antetokounmpo(calf) and point guard Damian Lillard (Achilles) were both doubtful entering the day, but have been ruled out well before the game starts. Small forward Khris Middleton is dealing with an ankle sprain but is probable.
Indiana doesn’t have any new injuries on their report heading into game day.
The Pacers are 10-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook. Indianapolis is the -395 favorite, while Milwaukee is installed as the +310 underdog. The point total is set at 216.5.
Bucks vs. Pacers, 7 p.m. ET
Pick ATS: Pacers -10
Milwaukee won the first game of the series 109-94, but Indiana battled back, winning Game 2 125-108 and Game 3 121-118 in overtime. The fact that the Bucks will be without Lillard and Antetokounmpo hurts their chances of not only winning but covering the near double-digit point spread. With both stars ruled out, Milwaukee will be missing an average of 54.7 points per game.
The Pacers are also one of the best teams against the spread this season. They covered in 54.2% of their games, the sixth-best mark in the NBA. The Bucks haven’t been as successful, covering in 44.1% of their games, the sixth-worst in the league. It’s nearly a double-digit spread, but Indiana should hold strong and cover at home.
Over/Under: Under 216.5
The first three games in this series have finished with 203, 233 and 239 points scored. Indiana had the 10th-best rate of hitting the over this season, doing so in 52.4% of its games. Milwaukee split its games evenly against the point total, with half hitting the over and half hitting the under. Even with the lowered total, the lack of both Antetokounmpo and Lillard in this game should favor the under hitting.
