The first round of the 2024 NBA Playoffs will continue on Saturday and the slate will feature with the No. 1 Boston Celtics visiting the No. 8 Miami Heat for Game 3 of their best-of-seven series. Tipoff for this Eastern Conference showdown is set for 6 p.m. ET and the game will air on TNT.
The series is tied at 1-1 after the teams split the first two games in Boston. After suffering a 20-point loss in Game 1, Miami was able to get on the board with a 111-101 victory in Game 2 on Wednesday. A 15-3 run in the third quarter gave the Heat a comfortable cushion and they were able to maintain defensively the rest of the way to win. They also went nuclear from beyond the arc, burying 23 threes throughout the evening.
In fact, three-point shooting has proven to be the difference as the winning team in both games have buried at least 22 treys in their respective victories. That gives a good explanation as to why both the Heat and Celtics were +20 in points in the paint in their respective losses.
On the injury front, Jimmy Butler (MCL sprain) is still out for the Heat as he’s expected to miss the entire series for the Heat. Meanwhile, Terry Rozier (neck) is also out while Delon Wright (personal) is questionable. Kevin Love (arm), Haywood Highsmith (arm), and Duncan Robinson (left facet) will be available for Miami.
Boston enters the game as a 9-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook, accompanied by a total of 204. The Celtics are listed as a -440 moneyline favorite, making the Heat a +340 underdog.
Celtics vs. Heat, 6 p.m. ET
Pick ATS: Celtics -9
A stat that immediately jumps out is Miami being a league-worst 1-9 against the spread as a home underdog this season. Tyler Herro and the Heat certainly stepped up in Game 2, but you have to question if performances like that are sustainable with Butler still absent from the lineup.
If the Heat aren’t hitting threes, they are going to be forced inside and the Celtics’ length will play a factor with them outblocking the Heat 14-2 through the first two games. Give me Boston to cover as a road favorite and go up 2-1 in the series.
Over/Under: Under 204
Outside of the threes, this series is being played in a phone booth with both teams shooting under 50% from the field. With a few days to make adjustments, I think this game becomes a defensive struggle that ultimately favors the visitors. So even with a total of 204, I’ll take the under.
