The 2024 NFL Draft is here, when all our mock drafts are shown to be completely wrong. Sure, we’ll probably get Caleb Williams correct, but on the whole, mock drafts are usually based on erroneous information and personal bias. Of course, as sports fans, we know how hard it is to predict anything in the sports world.
What we do know about the NFL Draft is what kind of players teams need, who they’ve brought in for visits, and how well they played in college. If teams couldn’t trade draft picks, that information would likely give us a shooter’s chance, but it’s the trades that’ll getcha! Once a trade hits that you didn’t account for, it’s like your March Madness bracket all over again.
I’m also no tape grinder. This is a first-round mock and all of these guys are friggin’ awesome at playing football. There are enough detailed looks at every possible first-round pick to get a good idea of their strengths and then as an NFL guy, I can look at those strengths and match them with the team that needs those strengths. We don’t all have to watch every college snap of each draft eligible player.
What happens to them in the NFL is tough to know. Will they deal with injuries? Will their coaches not use their strengths well? Will they get a little money and not do what is needed to keep their edge? Add in about a million other things that can derail a person’s goals and you have all the reasons a player might not become a star in the NFL.
So yeah, it’s a tough assignment, but it’s also one where we have many of the pieces and if we can just fit them together correctly, we can come up with a pretty good set of predictions. It won’t be perfect, but it should at least make sense!
1. Chicago Bears (from CAR) — QB, Caleb Williams, USC
2. Washington Commanders — QB, Jayden Daniels, LSU
3. New England Patriots — QB, Drake Maye, UNC
4. Arizona Cardinals — WR, Marvin Harrison Jr., OSU
5. Denver Broncos (TRADE with Chargers) — QB, J.J. McCarthy, Michigan
6. New York Giants — WR, Malik Nabers, LSU
7. Tennessee Titans — OT, Joe Alt, Notre Dame
8. Atlanta Falcons — EDGE, Dallas Turner, Florida St.
9. Chicago Bears — WR, Rome Odunze, Washington
10. New York Jets — OT, Troy Fautanu, Washington
11. Minnesota Vikings — DT, Byron Murphy, Texas
12. Los Angeles Chargers (TRADE with Broncos) — OT, JC Latham, Alabama
13. Las Vegas Raiders — QB, Michael Penix Jr., Washington
14. New Orleans Saints — OT, Olumuyiwa Fashanu, Penn St.
15. Indianapolis Colts — TE, Brock Bowers, Georgia
16. Seattle Seahawks — OT, Taliese Fuaga, Oregon St.
17. Jacksonville Jaguars — WR, Brian Thomas, LSU
18. Cincinnati Bengals — OT, Amarius Mims, Georgia
19. Los Angeles Rams — EDGE, Laiatu Latu, UCLA
20. Pittsburgh Steelers — G, Graham Barton, Duke
21. Miami Dolphins — EDGE, Jared Verse, Florida St.
22. Philadelphia Eagles — CB, Quinyon Mitchell, Toledo
23. Minnesota Vikings (from CLE through HOU) — QB, Bo Nix, Oregon
24. Dallas Cowboys — OT, Tyler Guyton, Oklahoma
25. Green Bay Packers — CB, Terrion Arnold, Alabama
26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers — EDGE, Chop Robinson, Penn St.
27. Arizona Cardinals (from HOU) — CB, Cooper DeJean, Iowa
28. Buffalo Bills — WR, Xavier Worthy, Texas
29. Detroit Lions — OL, Jackson-Powers-Johnson, Oregon
30. Baltimore Ravens — OL, Zach Frazier, West Virginia
31. San Francisco 49ers — WR, Ladd McConkey, Georgia
32. Kansas City Chiefs — WR, Adonai Mitchell, Texas
I do expect some of these teams to trade out of the first round and I don’t like that cornerbacks Arnold and Mitchell fall this far, but I believe teams to go hard after offensive linemen early.
The Vikings are more equipped to trade up for McCarthy than the Broncos, but I just have a hunch that Sean Payton wants to get his QB now and he’ll trade players and/or a bunch of future picks to get it done.
I’d love to see Xavier Worthy go to Kansas City, but it doesn’t look like he’ll last that long. Kansas City is a good spot for Mitchell to land, as the culture there should keep him focused and he has all the talent in the world.
I don’t think Penix Jr. or Nix should go in the first round, but I also think teams should take swings on QBs they see something in. The Raiders can’t go into the season with Aidan O’Connell as their main starter, and the same is true for the Vikings and Sam Darnold. They should be able to wait on these second/third tier QBs, but they might not want to take that risk. And if the Vikings beat out the Broncos for a trade up, the Broncos would be in the same situation.
I currently have nine offensive linemen going in this first round, but feel that could go higher, especially if teams trade up to grab one. The position feels top heavy and I expect teams to want an OL as early as possible.
Overall, I don’t feel confident in this mock, but I do think it makes sense for the most part. It should give you an idea of how things might play out.
