Update: Leonard has been ruled out for Game 1. The Mavericks remain 3-point favorites and the total comes in at 221.5. I’ll keep Clippers as the ATS pick and the under on the total.
One of the best recent rivalries in the NBA will continue Sunday with Game 1 between the Dallas Mavericks and Los Angeles Clippers. This is the third time these teams will meet in the postseason in the last five years, with the Clippers winning both the previous series. LA won two of the three meetings during the regular season. These teams have been evenly matched since Luka Doncic joined the Mavericks, and the outcome of this series could have huge implications beyond this postseason.
Tim Hardaway Jr. is considered questionable for Dallas, while Dereck Lively is off the injury report. The biggest question is the status of Kawhi Leonard, who missed the final seven games of the regular season with knee inflammation. Leonard is officially listed as questionable and was expected to be able to play, but it seems like he is trending in the wrong direction. He’ll likely be a game-time call.
The Mavericks are 3-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook with the total set at 222.5. Dallas is -148 on the moneyline while Los Angeles is +124.
Mavericks vs. Clippers, 3:30 p.m. ET
Pick ATS: Clippers +3
The Mavericks went 34-17 ATS as favorites during the regular season and were 19-4 ATS as away favorites, so it feels like Dallas is the team to back here especially if Leonard is ruled out. However, the Clippers did win two out of the three games against the Mavericks and have some depth to tread water without Leonard. LA has had bad injury luck with Leonard or Paul George during the playoffs, which has hindered the team but also allowed role players to get used to playing without the stars. I think George and Harden offer enough for the Clippers to cover regardless of Leonard’s status.
Over/Under: Under 222.5
Dallas was 20-20-1 to the over as the road team this season while Los Angeles was 18-22-1 to the over at home. Two of the three meetings between these sides went over this line but I think the Clippers will be more deliberate in this game and attempt to avoid turning this into a track meet. The Mavericks will attempt to push the pace but they’ve also been playing well defensively of late. I think this defensive surge, along with Leonard potentially being out for LA, will lead to the under hitting.
