The No. 6 Phoenix Suns will meet the No. 3 Minnesota Timberwolves in the first round of the 2024 NBA Playoffs with Game 1 taking place in Minneapolis Saturday afternoon. These sides met on the final day of the regular season, with Phoenix grabbing a win to secure its automatic playoff berth and set up this matchup. The Suns won all three matchups during the regular season between these teams, with two wins coming in the last 15 days.
Damion Lee remains out for the Suns. The Timberwolves are clean on the injury front.
The Timberwolves are 1-point favorites according to DraftKings Sportsbook, with the total set at 214. Minnesota is -115 on the moneyline while Phoenix is -105.
Suns vs. Timberwolves, 3:30 p.m. ET
Pick ATS: Timberwolves -1
The Suns were one of the worst ATS teams during the regular season but went 10-11 ATS as betting underdogs. More importantly, they’ll have confidence after winning two games over the Timberwolves recently. Phoenix ended the regular season on a three-game winning streak as well. Minnesota went 28-31-2 ATS as a favorite during the regular season, with a 14-21-2 ATS mark as a home favorite.
This is essentially a pick ‘em, and the Timberwolves have had a week to think about what went wrong for them in the final game of the season against the Suns. Despite the blowout loss, Minnesota still went 30-11 at home during the regular season. I think the Timberwolves are able to get their first win over the Suns this season in Game 1.
Over/Under: Over 214
Two of the three meetings between these teams went over this number but the first clash was back in November. The sides were 1-1 to the over in the two games in April. The Suns were actually one of the most under-friendly teams in the regular season at 36-45-1 to the over. The Timberwolves were 41-40-1 to the over despite one of the best defensive teams in the league. Even though I believe Minnesota will be better at containing Phoenix’s scorers in this game, I’ll take the over to hit.