Unabated is an industry leader in real-time betting data and profitable sports betting tools. For the NBA season, they created the industry’s first-ever Conditional Projections. Every day, the Unabated NBA team creates projection sets for different scenarios based upon which key players are Questionable on the injury report with massive potential ramifications on the slate.
If you’ve played an NBA slate as a DFS player or prop bettor, you know the deal with the NBA: The injuries are everything. A minute here or there can be the difference between good chalk and bad chalk, quality value or lineup-ruining value, or an over/under winning or losing by the hook.
Every day we have dozens of players marked as questionable up until game time with their statuses often impacting the edges or microedges you can have. A couple of times each week here on DraftKings Network, I’ll bring you the latest news and information on a few of the players who seem most noteworthy in Unabated’s Conditional Projections.
The Unabated NBA team, led by industry veteran Justin Phan, currently projects the Lakers’ newly minted 40-year-old star LeBron James to have a 50% chance to play. Previously, LeBron and Anthony Davis were both questionable. But now, Anthony Davis has been upgraded to probable, while we wait for an update on LeBron.
With D’Angelo Russell shipped out of town for much lower usage rotational pieces in Dorian Finney-Smith and Shake Milton, there’s a lot of questions already for the Lakers’ rotation. With LeBron’s injury making him questionable for tonight’s game at home versus Cleveland, there’s even more layers of uncertainty. The Lakers game is also the last on tonight’s New Year’s Eve slate, so it’ll be crucial to understand how the Lakers may be impacted for tonight’s DraftKings DFS tournaments, as well as betting markets.
If LeBron plays tonight, he’d project well with his usual 30% usage, 12.6% rebound rate and 43.8% assist rate — good for 1.33 DraftKings Points Per Minute this year. Unabated’s NBA Conditional Projections would have LeBron projected for 23.2 points, 7.5 rebounds and 10.0 assists if he plays.
If LeBron sits, he’d open up even more opportunity for the Lakers with their team down two lead ballhandlers in LeBron and the traded D’Angelo Russell. Unabated’s projection team would expect the following for the Lakers if LeBron sits out:
- Anthony Davis projects for 29.2 points, 12.7 rebounds and 5.0 assists (26 points, 11.9 rebounds and 3.5 assists if LeBron plays)
- Austin Reaves projects for 20.2 points, 4.5 rebounds and 8.2 assists (17.7 points, 4.2 rebounds and 5.7 assists if LeBron plays)
- Dorian Finney-Smith projects for 9.8 points, 4.6 rebounds and 2.5 assists (7.6 points, 3.8 rebounds and 1.5 assists if LeBron plays)
- Max Christie projects for 11.4 points, 4.3 rebounds and 2.7 assists (9.4 points, 3.7 rebounds and 1.7 assists if LeBron plays)
Unabated’s simulation tools projects 29.9% Expected Value for an over on Austin Reaves’ current 27.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists line and 24.2% EV on Anthony Davis’s over 41.5 PRAs line if LeBron were to sit.
Let’s see if our King straps in or if he starts to prepare for the midnight ball drop earlier than expected. Happy New Year to you all and here’s to a slightly less questionable 2025!
See all of the Conditional Projections for tonight’s slate along with live news updates and premium content on Unabated NBA. Start now with promo code SPLASH to get $30 off as a special thank you to DraftKings Network readers.
