Happy New Year, NBA fans!
Will 2025 see the seventh consecutive new champion, or will the Boston Celtics become the first repeat winners since the 2016-18 Golden State Warriors?
As the calendar flips to 2025, we all have a lot to look forward to in the new year and plenty of fresh goals to work towards. Like so many of us, most of the NBA will experience disappointment at some point over the next year, but for now, teams are clear-eyed and optimistic about the year ahead.
Whether you’ve written down your New Year’s resolutions yet or not, I’ve done so here for every Western Conference team, and my colleague Bill Yin has done the same for the East.
Also, Bill and I have set some limits on ourselves; only one team in each conference can have “draft Cooper Flagg” as its resolution, and only one can have “win the NBA championship”. Let’s dive in:
Note: All team records and championship odds are accurate through December 30, 2024.
Northwest Division
Utah Jazz (7-24), +100000 to win NBA Championship at DraftKings Sportsbook: Figure out Lauri Markkanen’s role in their future
After being involved in trade rumors for most of his first two seasons in Utah, small forward Lauri Markkanen signed a five-year, $238 million extension with the Jazz on August 7, keeping him in Salt Lake City at least through the end of the season. While Markkanen has still been solid this season, he has not lived up to the standards that made him the NBA’s Most Improved Player in 2022-23. He has been worse as both a scorer and a rebounder, averaging just 19.7 points per game on a 54.6% effective field goal percentage despite being Utah’s No. 1 option.
Meanwhile, the Jazz figure to be major lottery players, as they have since trading away Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert two summers ago. In each of the first two seasons of Utah’s rebuild, it has started off competitive before tailing off in the second half of the season. That hasn’t been the case this year, as the Jazz’s 7-23 record is the fifth-worst in basketball.
Especially if it wins the lottery and has the chance to draft Flagg — a versatile six-foot-nine forward from Duke — Utah will likely listen to offers for Markkanen once again in the summer. Despite an up-and-down season, Markkanen is a seven-foot former All-Star who has shot 37.5% from beyond the arc for his career and would return assets in addition to the 13 draft picks that the Jazz already control over the next five years. At 27, he’s also young enough that, if Utah chooses to keep him, he should still be in his prime by the time the next core is ready to contend.
Portland Trail Blazers (11-21), +100000: Anything — literally anything — from Scoot Henderson
Point guard Scoot Henderson had big shoes to fill from his very first NBA minute, as any player replacing Damian Lillard — Portland’s franchise leader in points, three-pointers, and free throws — would. Unfortunately, the third overall pick in the 2023 NBA Draft hasn’t nearly lived up to his lofty expectations, averaging 11.5 points, 2.9 rebounds, and 5.0 assists per game on putrid 40-32-76 shooting splits while being a negative defender. Henderson looks overmatched and has a negative-4.2 box plus-minus, barely better than his -5.8 last year.
While Victor Wembanyama (No. 1 overall in 2023), Brandon Miller (No. 2), and Amen Thompson (No. 4) thrive, Henderson is floundering. While he has demonstrated slight improvements, especially as a finisher and on defense, he is far from a replacement for Lillard. He has also been outplayed by several other guards from the 2023 class, especially Keyonte George (No. 16) and Brandin Podziemski (No. 19).
2025 will be a critical year from Henderson if he wants to prove his viability as a franchise point guard. Prior to a stinker on December 30, he strung together four solid games in a row, averaging 15.8 points, 5.3 assists, and 2.0 steals per game across that stretch while shooting 47.4% from deep. While it would be unrealistic to expect Henderson to suddenly become an elite three-point shooter, more four-game stretches like his recent tear would demonstrate the potential that the Trail Blazers saw in him. If nothing else, it might ward Portland away from drafting his replacement in June.
Minnesota Timberwolves (17-14), +3000: Find an eighth man
The Timberwolves came ever so close to reaching the promised land last year, falling to the Dallas Mavericks in five games in the Western Conference Finals with a core of Anthony Edwards, Karl-Anthony Towns, and Rudy Gobert. But, after a grueling seven-game series against the Denver Nuggets in the conference semifinals, Minnesota was exhausted and ran out of momentum, losing by 21 in Game 5 after three tight losses to open the series.
During the offseason, the Timberwolves made a surprising blockbuster trade intended to avoid paying luxury tax and increase depth, dealing star center Karl-Anthony Towns to the New York Knicks for power forward Julius Randle and shooting guard Donte DiVincenzo. Randle has been fine in Minnesota, averaging 20.2 points per game and shooting 36.4% from beyond the arc — the second-best efficiency of his career. DiVincenzo, meanwhile, has struggled, shooting 38.9% from the field and averaging under 10 points per game. They’ve neither solved Minnesota’s lack of top-end talent nor its lack of depth.
As a top three, Randle, Edwards, and Gobert aren’t good enough to lead a championship team, so the Timberwolves will have to compensate through depth. Last season’s Sixth Man of the Year, Naz Reid, has been as reliable as ever, averaging 12.2 points and 4.9 rebounds per game, even if his shooting efficiency has dipped somewhat, and DiVincenzo — who shot 40.1% from deep on huge volume with the Knicks in 2023-24 — figures to turn it around eventually.
But beyond Reid, Minnesota’s depth is thin. Nickeil Alexander-Walker has not improved much since last year, and Josh Minott is a negative on offense. The Timberwolves’ window is rapidly closing with Randle, Gobert, and Mike Conley all on the wrong side of 30, so their best shot at winning a title is probably this year. They’ll need improvements from Alexander-Walker and Minott to get there.
Denver Nuggets (18-13), +1300: Add quality role players around Nikola Jokić
Nikola Jokić is a singularly brilliant player, inarguably the best in the NBA. The three-time MVP is somehow having his best offensive season yet, averaging 31.0 points, 12.9 rebounds, and 9.5 assists per game while shooting a league-leading 48.9% from deep. But despite his mind-numbing play, the Nuggets have been pretty mediocre, sitting at 18-13 with an elite offense and a below-average defense.
In the 37.2 minutes per game Denver plays with Jokić on the court, it outscores opponents by 10.4 points per 100 possessions, the third-best net rating in the league, behind only the Oklahoma City Thunder and Cleveland Cavaliers. But when he is sidelined, it is outscored by 13.4 points per 100 possessions, worse even than the historically bad Washington Wizards. Co-star Jamal Murray is having arguably his worst season since his rookie year, and forward Michael Porter Jr. continues to offset his strong offense with atrocious defense. Denver’s core role players — Christian Braun, Julian Strawther, and Peyton Watson — are all below NBA replacement level. Russell Westbrook has been good, but is he still reliable in the playoffs at 36 years old?
Jokić has two more seasons on his contract, plus a player option, so the Nuggets know their timeline to appease him. He is both fiercely loyal and media-shy, so it’s unlikely that he’d publicly demand a trade.
Still, the future first-ballot Hall of Famer deserves better. Jokić has had a greater five-year peak than any other player, posting five of the greatest seven seasons in the league’s history, as measured by box plus-minus, in the last five seasons. Denver cannot afford to let him eventually retire with only one championship. The Nuggets made a mistake by letting shooting guard Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, a valuable two-way piece on that 2022-23 championship team, walk in free agency. Unfortunately, Denver has few tradable assets to increase the team’s depth, but scrounging on the cheap to find the best possible pieces is a must.
Oklahoma City Thunder (26-5), +300: Win the NBA Championship
The mantra this season is pretty simple for the Thunder, who have the second-best net rating in NBA history: championship or bust.
Led by point guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who finished second in MVP voting last season, Oklahoma City has all the pieces to contend now. Small forward Jalen Williams is a two-way star who might make his first All-Star team this season, averaging 21.2 points and 1.7 steals per game. Center Isaiah Hartenstein is enjoying the best season of his career, and guards Alex Caruso and Luguentz Dort are defensive stalwarts. This isn’t even accounting for Chet Holmgren, the No. 2 overall pick in the 2022 draft who averaged 2.3 blocks per game in his rookie season and is currently out with a hip fracture.
The Thunder have the second-shortest odds to win the championship at DraftKings Sportsbook, and for good reason. There’s pretty much nothing that they have to do to improve. Oklahoma City has the seventh-best offensive rating in the league and by far the best defensive rating. If there’s any nitpicking to be done, the Thunder have the second-lowest rebounding percentage in basketball, but even that should improve as Hartenstein continues to get more comfortable with head coach Mark Daigneault’s system and Holmgren returns from injury.
To make matters even scarier for the rest of the NBA, Oklahoma City controls up to 16 first-round draft picks over the next seven years and has all the tools it needs to build a dynasty.
Pacific Division
Sacramento Kings (14-19), +15000: Test out Doug Christie as a head coach
Two seasons ago, vibes were flying high in California’s capital as the core of point guard De’Aaron Fox, center Domantas Sabonis, and head coach Mike Brown broke the NBA’s longest playoff drought and earned the third seed in the Western Conference. Although that Kings team fell in seven games to the Golden State Warriors in the first round of the playoffs, Fox was spectacular and the accolades rolled in. Fox won the NBA’s inaugural Clutch Player of the Year award and Brown earned Coach of the Year honors.
Since then, everything has fallen apart, despite individual leaps from both Fox and Sabonis. Sacramento sits just 14-19 and fired Brown two games ago amidst a six-game skid. Appointed to replace Brown is former Kings shooting guard Doug Christie, who Fox passed on December 28 for the second-most steals in franchise history. Christie earned his first win on December 30 as Sacramento notched a 110-100 victory over a Dallas Mavericks team missing both Luka Dončić and Kyrie Irving.
With a 2.5-game gap to the bottom of the play-in, the Kings aren’t out of contention, but most of the West’s contenders seem to be rising, while Sacramento’s form is falling. Fox has been involved in trade rumors, with the Houston Rockets and San Antonio Spurs particularly interested. With so much competition in the West, the Kings would be best off using this season as a gap year to evaluate Christie as a head coach and Fox and Sabonis as franchise-defining stars.
Phoenix Suns (15-16), +4000: Resurgent play from Bradley Beal
Despite reaching the NBA Finals in 2021 behind a core of Devin Booker, Chris Paul, and quality role players, the Suns decided to shake things up, trading for Kevin Durant once his foray in Brooklyn reached its expiration date at the trade deadline in 2023. Then, after Durant had played just eight games in Phoenix, the Suns made another huge swing, sending Paul, Landry Shamet, four first-round pick swaps, and six second-round picks to the Washington Wizards for guard Bradley Beal, who had averaged 31.3 points per game in 2020-21 with Washington.
Since arriving in the desert, Beal hasn’t lived up to his billing. He hasn’t been terrible, averaging 18.4 points, 4.2 rebounds, and 4.5 points per game on pretty efficient shooting over his first 74 games with the team. Still, he’s struggled to stay healthy and has been a consistent negative on the defensive end.
Beal hasn’t been the only problem for the Suns this year, and Booker and Durant need to do their part to stay healthy too. However, Phoenix is stuck in neutral, sitting 11th in the Western Conference with Booker having missed the last five games, and is asset-poor after the blockbuster trades for Durant and Beal. The Suns likely don’t have the depth to win a championship this year, and their chances will only get worse as their stars age, but more assertive play from Beal might help them at least avoid the Play-In Tournament.
Golden State Warriors (16-16), +2200: Trade for Jimmy Butler
After winning 12 of their first 15 games, the Warriors have fallen off a cliff, losing 13 of their last 16 and falling to 9th in the Western Conference. The 12-man rotation that head coach Steve Kerr utilized at the start of the rotation has been unreliable, former lottery pick Jonathan Kuminga has somewhat regressed after a breakout 2023-24 season, and even Stephen Curry is starting to show signs of age. Trading for veteran Dennis Schroder isn’t the answer; Golden State has lost four of six games with Schroder on the roster.
For most teams, trading for an aging star on a $48.8 million contract would be an immediate nonstarter, and, with his inconsistent three-point shot, Butler is far from a perfect fit for the Warriors. But the last month and a half has shown that, as constructed, Golden State is not a championship contender, and Curry deserves better in the waning years of his Hall of Fame career.
The Warriors have attempted to bridge two timelines ever since Curry missed most of the 2019-20 season with an injury, and, with the exception of the 2021-22 championship run, it hasn’t really worked. The young pieces — Kuminga, Moses Moody, and Brandin Podziemski — are too far from being ready to contend for titles, and Curry is too close to retirement. Until Curry hangs up his sneakers, Golden State is never going to be a bad team, but without a top-30 player alongside him, it stands no chance of winning the title, either.
Los Angeles Lakers (18-13), +3500: Defensive effort from LeBron James
On the offensive side of the ball, James — who turned 40 on Monday — is nearly as good as ever, averaging 23.5 points, 7.9 rebounds, and 9.0 assists per game. He’s still enjoying a late-career shooting renaissance, connecting on 35.7% of his three-point attempts, the ninth-best rate of his career. In part due to his contributions, the Lakers still have an above-average offensive rating, pouring in 112.5 points per 100 possessions.
On defense, it’s a different story. Throughout his stint in Los Angeles, James has become a progressively more lackadaisical defender, preserving his energy to carry a heavy offensive load. But this season, he has a negative defensive box plus-minus for the first time since his rookie season, and, alarmingly, the Lakers are 10 points better per 100 possessions when he sits, marking the first time in his career he has had negative on-off splits. Los Angeles has been outscored by 3.6 points per game with James on the floor, the worst average on the team.
Head coach JJ Redick will need James to be more engaged on the defensive end if the Lakers want any chance of winning a playoff series. Although Los Angeles ended up losing its first-round series in five games to the Denver Nuggets in 2024, James led all postseason participants with a 3.0% steal percentage and a 4.0 defensive box plus-minus. He also saw a huge uptick in his defensive efficiency during the 2020 playoffs, when he was the best player on the court as the Lakers romped to his fourth NBA title.
James has looked slightly better on the defensive end in his first five games since returning from a two-game break, posting a 108 defensive rating as Los Angeles picked up four valuable wins. Even if it requires him to take more games off, James should prioritize the playoffs and ramp up his defensive intensity as needed.
LA Clippers (19-13), +4000: A healthy Kawhi Leonard
The Clippers’ floor, even without Leonard, appears to be the Play-In Tournament. Despite a lack of top-end talent on the roster — its best players are 35-year-old James Harden and veteran sharpshooter Norman Powell — LA holds the fifth seed in the Western Conference. The Clippers figured to finish in the bottom half of the West after losing wing Paul George in free agency, but they have posted a 108.0 defensive rating — the fourth-best in basketball — and vibes are good in the brand-new Intuit Dome, even if they’re not selling the 18,000-seat arena.
Leonard is set to make his season debut on January 4 after undergoing offseason knee surgery. When he plays, he’s one of the greatest two-way forces the league has ever seen, averaging 20.0 points and 1.7 steals per game on 50-39-86 splits. He is no longer his Toronto 2019 postseason peak, when he out-dueled Joel Embiid, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Stephen Curry in consecutive series, but he was spectacular in 2023-24, averaging nearly 24 points per game and coming within five made free throws of joining the elite 50-40-90 club. His return will fill probably the biggest weakness in LA’s starting lineup, as Lue would probably slide Powell and Derrick Jones Jr. up a position and send defensive ace Kris Dunn to the bench.
With a healthy Leonard in the postseason, the Clippers might have genuine championship aspirations. In 2020-21, the last time Leonard was mostly healthy for a playoff run, LA made its first conference finals in franchise history but fell to the Phoenix Suns because Leonard tore his ACL during Game 4 of the second-round series against Utah. Leonard has been much-maligned throughout his career for introducing “load management” into the NBA lexicon, but if it helps him stay available through the 2025 postseason, nobody will want to face the Clippers.
Southwest Divison
New Orleans Pelicans (5-28), +100000: Draft Cooper Flagg
The last time New Orleans selected a highly-touted power forward from Duke with the first overall pick, it turned out pretty well for them. Despite dealing with major injury concerns throughout his entire career, Zion Williamson has been pretty good when he been on the court, averaging 24.6 points, 6.6 rebounds, and 4.2 assists per game and making two All-Star appearances. Williamson has been maligned for his poor fitness and his defensive inattention, but at his best, he is a top-25 player in basketball.
The problem this year is that Williamson has appeared in just six games after suffering a left hamstring strain. In his absence, the Pelicans have floundered and, despite having a more talented roster than most of the other lottery-bound teams, have a good chance of finishing with one of the three worst records in basketball and having 14% odds to earn the first overall pick in the draft.
Flagg would provide New Orleans with plenty of options. At Duke, he’s averaging 16.3 points, 8.6 rebounds, and 3.5 assists per game while flashing some of the defensive potential that could make him a perennial All-Star in the NBA. He hasn’t been perfect — he’s shooting just 42.1% from the field and 25.0% from beyond the arc — but he’s still widely projected to go first overall. Flagg would provide the Pelicans with a stretch big to pair alongside Williamson or a replacement if they opt to trade their incumbent star. He would also allow New Orleans to move on from All-Star wing Brandon Ingram, who has been in trade rumors for years.
San Antonio Spurs (16-16), +60000: Figure out which pieces fit around Victor Wembanyama
Among the teams expected to participate in the NBA Draft Lottery, San Antonio is an a unique position in that it already has its franchise player. Barring injury, Wembanyama will be a top-ten player in basketball for the next 15 years. Wembanyama got off to a slow start in his first 10 games, but in 17 appearances since then, he has put up MVP-caliber numbers: 29.8 points, 9.9 rebounds, and 3.9 blocks on 50-39-86 shooting splits.
Wemby’s rookie season can be split into two phases: the first half, when he was a nominal power forward and enjoying a good but not special rookie season, and once he moved to center full time, when he played at a borderline All-Star level on a bad Spurs team. This season, he’s taken the All-Star-to-MVP leap, and San Antonio is competitive, hanging around the fringes of the play-in race.
After — possibly — June, the Spurs won’t have the chance to pair Wembanyama with another lottery talent for a long time, so they have to figure out which pieces will best accentuate their gargantuan star. Point guard Stephon Castle looks like an eventual two-way contributor who should form a lethal duo with Wembanyama on both ends of the floor. But what about Tre Jones, Julian Champagnie, and Jeremy Sochan? All three have shown plenty of growth this year, but can they ever be the core of a championship team? Will Devin Vassell and Keldon Johnson — who once shared the court with DeMar DeRozan — be too old by the time Castle and Wembanyama are ready to win championships?
Dallas Mavericks (20-13), +1100: A healthy Luka Dončić
Quite simply, Dallas’ hopes of contending come down to the availability of its star player. Dončić, who has been a First-Team All-NBA honoree in five of his first six seasons in the NBA, will be sidelined for at least the next month with a calf strain, and the Mavericks could easily tumble down the Western Conference standings without him. The brilliant Slovenian guard, who entered the season as one of the favorites to bring home his first MVP, has had somewhat of a down year by his lofty standards, but is still averaging 28.1 points, 8.3 rebounds, and 7.1 assists on 46-35-77 shooting splits.
With Dončić healthy, Dallas has basically no weaknesses. Prior to Dončić’s injury, the Mavericks had both a top-ten offense and top-ten defense with him in the lineup, and Dallas had won eight of its past 10 games. Shooting guard Kyrie Irving is arguably the best second option in the league, Klay Thompson provides elite spot-up shooting and serves as a floor spacer, and P.J. Washington and Daniel Gafford anchor the defense. If Dončić is healthy and playing up to his playoff best — his 30.9 postseason points per game average is second only to Michael Jordan in NBA history — the Mavericks stand a good chance of repeating as West champions.
Dallas has been 7-4 so far this season without Dončić, so it might be able to stay afloat in the playoff picture without him. Still, if the Mavericks want any real chance at winning a playoff series, it will need its superstar on the court and playing well.
Houston Rockets (21-11), +8000: Offensive improvement from Amen Thompson
After finishing just outside the play-in picture in 2023-24, the Rockets have truly arrived. Houston has enjoyed another leap from center Alperen Şengün, who finished third in Most Improved Player voting last season, and reserve wing Tari Eason. Former lottery picks Jalen Green and Jabari Smith Jr. have gotten the hang of NBA speed, and veterans Dillon Brooks and Fred VanVleet have provided a steadying presence.
But while Şengün might be the Rockets’ best player — and, according to Player Impact Estimate, the 10th-best in all of basketball — Amen Thompson might be the most important. The supremely athletic wing was the fourth overall pick in the 2023 draft, one slot ahead of his twin brother, Ausar, and he has blossomed into a game-wrecking defender, ranking fifth in the NBA with 1.5 defensive win shares despite playing just 27.8 minutes per game. He’s averaging 1.1 steals and 1.1 blocks per game, helping Houston to the second-best defensive rating in the league.
The problem is that Thompson can’t shoot. Amen is, at minimum, better than Ausar, who has put up a putrid 49-25-50 line in 17.4 minutes per game with the Detroit Pistons. Still, the Rockets can’t expect to win a championship this season if Thompson is shooting 26.2% from three-point range and 69.4% from the free throw line. He also turns the ball over 1.5 times per game while dishing out just 2.2 assists, and he’ll need to become a better playmaker to take over more ball-handling duties as VanVleet ages.
Memphis Grizzlies (22-11), +2200: Keep Ja Morant healthy and off Instagram
Two of the NBA’s three smallest markets have the two best records in the Western Conference, and while the Thunder have received their flowers, the Grizzlies still seem to be flying under the radar. But Memphis has few weaknesses; it has the fifth-best offensive rating in basketball and the fifth-best defensive rating. Power forward Jaren Jackson Jr. has been at his two-way best, averaging 21.6 points, 1.5 steals, and 1.7 blocks per game. Center Zach Edey is the favorite to win Rookie of the Year, even showing some of the floor-stretching potential that he rarely demonstrated at Purdue. Reserve forward Santi Aldama, by the NBA’s Player Impact Estimate, has been the 27th-best player in the league.
Still, Memphis’ chances start and end with Morant. The high-flying point guard has averaged 21.2 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 7.9 assists per game on 45-32-84 shooting splits while playing 20 of the Grizzlies’ 33 games. Memphis has outscored opponents by 12 points per 100 possessions with its star guard on the court and only 7.8 points when he sits. The Grizzlies won 51 games with Morant playing 61 games in 2022-23 but only 27 in 2023-24, when he only suited up for nine games after a 25-game suspension for conduct detrimental to the league and a shoulder injury.
As long as Morant isn’t flashing guns on Instagram Live — which he did repeatedly prior to his suspension but has not done since — Memphis should be a championship contender for years to come. If he does get himself in trouble and misses any time, the Grizzlies could easily sink towards the lottery.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook, lines and odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
