We’ve got just a single week of the regular season left, and while the sane among us probably ended their fantasy league’s this past weekend, there’s still a lot of reasons to care about the madness that is Week 18. DFS and betting being right at the top of the list.
So what do we know? Well, we actually know 12 of the 14 squads that will advance to the playoffs. Yet there’s still a lot of seeding implications up for grabs on Saturday and Sunday.
Let’s start in the AFC. The Chiefs wrapped up the one-seed and a first-round bye with a win over the Steelers on Christmas Day. The Bills also claimed the two-seed in Week 17 thanks to a resounding victory against the Jets. However, that’s where the simplicity ends. Pittsburgh and Baltimore are still fighting for a division crown and a home game in the Wild Card round; the Chargers can slide up into the five-seed and a matchup with the struggling Texans with a win and some help; while the Broncos need a victory to hold off the Dolphins and the Bengals for the final spot in the dance.
In the NFC, the drama begins right at the top. No matter the result of tonight’s tilt between the Lions and the 49ers, Detroit and Minnesota will square-off for the NFC North title and a first-round bye in Week 18. The other big domino yet to fall is in the NFC South, where the Buccaneers need a win over the Saints to take the division from the Falcons.
Got all that? Good. Let’s see how it all might affect coaching decisions and lineups for Week 18. This space will be updated throughout the week as more news comes in, so make sure to check back before kickoff.
Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos
While nothing is official as of yet, we got reports over the weekend that it’s very likely that the Chiefs will be resting their starters in Week 18’s matchup with the Broncos. That means Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce will be watching from the sidelines as Carson Wentz decides the playoff fate of the Broncos, Dolphins and Bengals.
Sounds like fun. …Unless you’re a Miami or Cincinnati fan, that is.
UPDATE: Here is the Chiefs official injury report for Week 18.
Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots
Like the Chiefs, the Bills are locked into their seed in the AFC playoff picture. As such, they’ll be resting their starters in Week 18’s matchup with the Patriots. Well, they’ll be resting their starters with a twist.
As a point of reference for how long Josh Allen might play, we can look back to Week 17 of 2020 — then the final week of the regular season — where the former first-round pick played the whole first-half in what would become a 56-26 blowout of the Dolphins. However, I doubt “short” means two quarters this time around. I’d expect Allen to play a drive or two, making the Bills a stay-away for DFS purposes.
Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams
The Rams secured the NFC West in Week 17 with their victory over the Cardinals and a little bit of help. Though the team could technically fall out of the three-seed to the four-seed with a loss in Week 18, it appears that Sean McVay is leaning towards resting his key players.
In an interview with Los Angeles’ team site, McVay stated that rest was “probably the direction we’ll go” against the Seahawks. He also specifically pointed to Jimmy Garoppolo and Blake Corum as players that could now see extended run.
UPDATE: The Rams will be resting several players in Week 18, including Matthew Stafford, Kyren Williams, Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua.
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles
Again, we don’t have anything definitive yet on whether or not the Eagles will be resting their starters with the NFC’s two-seed all locked up. On the surface, it seems like it would be an easy decision, but there are some fascinating storylines percolating beneath the surface in Philadelphia.
First and foremost: Saquon Barkley’s pursuit of the all-time single-season rushing record. After racking up 167 rushing yards in Week 17, Barkley sits only 101 yards behind Eric Dickerson. Asked post-game is Barkley would be given the opportunity to chase the record this Sunday against his former team, Nick Sirianni was as non-committal as humanly possible.
The other elephant in the room is the health of starting QB Jalen Hurts, who missed Sunday’s win over the Cowboys due to a lingering concussion. The choice will be out of Sirianni’s hands if Hurts can’t clear the protocol, yet if he does, it’s possible the Eagles would want to get Hurts back out on the field before the Wild Card round. A three-week gap between game action doesn’t sound ideal.
UPDATE: Both Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley are unlikely to play in Week 18, per Nick Sirianni. With Kenny Pickett also injured, and listed as questionable, it appears that Tanner McKee will start at QB, as he was taking first-team snaps in practice on Friday.
Barkley, DeVonta Smith and A.J. Brown are all officially listed as doubtful for Sunday.
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans
Yet another situation with no clear answer at the present. The Texans can not improve their position within the AFC on Sunday. After winning the AFC South, they are locked into the four-seed and a home game in the Wild Card round.
Still, for as positive as that sounds, the Texans have been struggling as of late. Coming out of its Week 14 bye, Houston scraped by the Dolphins in a contest where it gained a microscopic 181 yards of total offense. The Texans then dropped a game against the Chiefs and followed that up by registering a putrid two points in a lopsided loss to the Ravens on Christmas Day. There’s a chance DeMeco Ryans will want his team to get back on track before heading into the playoffs, even if that means having C.J. Stroud, Joe Mixon and Nico Collins play a few series versus the Titans.
On the other hand, with Tank Dell’s injury still very much front of mind for Houston, the team may decide to play it safe in Week 18.
Los Angeles Chargers at Las Vegas Raiders
The NFL tries its best to make sure there are no “meaningless” games on the Week 18 schedule by lining up all the teams that affect each other’s playoff positioning. However, this is a rare example where that’s not the case.
If the Steelers lose to the Bengals on Saturday — and they’re currently 2.5-point home underdogs on DraftKings Sportsbook — the Chargers will have the chance to move into the five-seed in the AFC, meaning they’d play the aforementioned Texans instead of the Ravens. That’s something any team would certainly want to do. However, if Pittsburgh beats Cincinnati, Los Angeles would be locked into the six-seed and might take the opportunity to rest Justin Herbert and the rest of the roster. We’ll have our answer before midnight ET on January 4.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
