The final push for playoff seedings is on around the NFL. Unfortunately, the Week 17 Monday Night matchup is not one that will play a role in this.
The Detroit Lions will travel to San Francisco to face the 49ers and have looked like Super Bowl contenders from start to finish this season. All eyes will be on their matchup with the Minnesota Vikings next week, as this will decide the winner of the NFC North and the top seed in the Conference. Detroit enters tonight’s game with a 13-2 record, which would have locked up the top spot in four other divisions, but the fight will continue until the final week against Minnesota.
Regardless, the Lions must suit up and face the 49ers tonight. San Francisco has a 6-9 record and has already been eliminated from the playoff race. Injuries have stacked up for each of these teams this season, but neither will roll over, even with tonight’s matchup holding no stakes.
The Lions enter this game as 3.5-point favorites at -198 on the Moneyline. The 49ers are +164 underdogs on the Moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook, and the game total is set at 50.5 points. With the stage set, here are my favorite prop bets for the Monday night clash.
Jahmyr Gibbs Under 16.5 Rush Attempts (-120)
It did not take long for Jahmyr Gibbs to climb into the short list of most talented running backs in the NFL. The Alabama product has already rushed for over 1,100 yards this season and is just under 1,600 total yards from scrimmage. Most of this came while splitting carries with David Montgomery, who suffered an MCL injury that has put the remainder of his season in doubt. This has made Gibbs the clear-cut top running back on the roster, but expect the Lions to continue keeping him in check, with this game not carrying any stakes.
Dan Campbell told reporters he has no plans to rest players, but it makes sense not to push a player like Gibbs to the max with Detroit’s seeding outlook entirely coming down to next week regardless of tonight’s result. Gibbs is an explosive running back, and his rushing yard prop sits at 85.5 rushing yards. His ability to take any given touch for a score points me toward the number of rush attempts rather than the yardage.
Looking at this season’s output overall, Gibbs has only rushed for over 16.5 carries in three games. This is not entirely fair given Montgomery’s impact and that Gibbs had a season-high 23 rush attempts last week. However, Craig Reynolds stepped in for four carries and should see an expanded chance this week. Count on Campbell to make sure his star running back is not overused ahead of next week’s divisional showdown.
Jameson Williams Over 52.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Jameson Williams is one of the more volatile players from a betting and fantasy football perspective, but I like his outlook tonight. On the season overall, Williams has tallied 47 receptions for 890 yards and six touchdowns. He has recorded over 120 receiving yards three times this season but has also been held below 10 yards twice. Williams is coming off a career-high 143 receiving yards last week and is averaging 68.5 receiving yards per game overall.
The 49ers’ defense has not lived up to their expectations this year. They rank 20th in points allowed and also are second to last in rushing touchdowns allowed. San Francisco is best at locking down the middle of the field, which could create some opportunities on the outside where Williams tends to do most of his damage. Williams is a key part of this Lions team, but not a guy who likely makes the cut for limiting opportunities to keep him healthy.
Williams has gone over 52.5 receiving yards in nine of the 13 games he has played. Detroit shows a willingness to dig deep into its playbook every week, and this should be further maximized by the low stakes of tonight’s game. Williams is the biggest big-play threat in the offense, and it also could be worth taking a chance on the alternate lines such as 60+ yards at +120 odds or 80+ yards for +270. Expect him to be the beneficiary of a lighter workload for some of the bigger stars and for Williamson to make a big play or two tonight.
Isaac Guerendo Over 82.5 Rushing & Receiving Yards (-115)
Injuries have ravaged the 49ers’ rushing attack all season. This started with Christian McCaffrey, who was injured much worse than the team let on leading into the season and was only able to play in just four games this year. In addition, Jordan Mason joined McCaffrey on injured reserve with an ankle injury. This has paved the way for Isaac Guerendo to step into the starting running back role, but he has battled injury issues as well. He missed last week’s game with a hamstring injury and was limited in practice this week. However, Guerendo is expected to be a full go for this game and has plenty to play for individually.
Detroit has been impressive defensively this season. They rank seventh in points allowed, 19th in yards given up, fourth in rushing yards allowed, and 19th in net yards per rush attempt. However, the injury issues continue to get worse, and it feels like they are nearly pulling bodies off the street to come in and play. Despite this, the Lions have continued to produce at a high level. While this is incredibly impressive, there has to be a limit to this.
Looking at Guerendo’s production this season, the rookie has carried the ball 73 times for 381 yards and four touchdowns. He also has added 11 receptions for 87 yards. He has recorded over 82.5 yards from scrimmage in three games this season. While the team goals for the 49ers are off the table, Guerendo is still looking to cement his long-term role. Expect him to make the most of his opportunity and for Guerendo to record at least 83 yards from scrimmage for the fourth time this year.
George Kittle Anytime TD (+130)
While it has been a frustrating year for the San Francisco 49ers, George Kittle is in the midst of a great season. Across the 13 games he has played, Kittle has tallied 68 receptions for 967 yards and eight touchdowns. He leads the team in receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns.
While Detroit has been effective at stopping tight ends this season, Kittle will stretch them in unique ways. He is among the best blocking tight ends and can often leak out as a pass-catcher as an escape valve. Detroit has given up three touchdowns to tight end this season, and Kittle will be among the top options whenever the 49ers are in the red zone.
Brock Purdy is still in search of a massive contract this offseason and will be leaving it all on the field in the final two games. Adding a few more passing touchdowns to his resume will certainly help his case, and Kittle is the most reliable target to accomplish this. Expect the star tight end to continue playing at a high level and find the end zone for the ninth time this season.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is seanbarnard) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
