After weeks and weeks of waiting — likely too much waiting for owners in season-long formats — Deebo Samuel ($7,800) finally had a huge fantasy performance in Week 16. Thanks primarily to seven receptions for 96 yards and a hard-fought touchdown, Samuel finished the loss in Miami with a season-best 25.1 FPTS. It was his first trip to the end zone since all the way back in Week 6.
The question for DFS players is now whether or not you can trust Samuel to have back-to-back good games.
Volume, not matchup, is certainly the concern in Week 17. Samuel’s nine targets against the Dolphins were the most he’d seen in a start going back to Week 2. In fact, from Week 3 to Week 16, Samuel didn’t see more than seven targets in a single contest. You’d also expect the wideout to have a less diverse role on Monday Night Football with Isaac Guerendo ($8,400) set to return from injury. When Guerendo’s been healthy, he’s functioned as a bell cow RB for the 49ers. However, with the rookie sidelined last Sunday and Patrick Taylor Jr. ($6,400) starting in the backfield, Samuel garnered five carries and 25 rushing yards — including a red zone rushing attempt from inside the 10-yard line. That’s unlikely to be the case again this evening.
Despite the usual concerns with Samuel, this does feel like too good of a matchup to ignore. Due mostly to their commanding point differential, the Lions have bled fantasy points to opponent passing attacks all season long. In fact, Detroit has surrendered the second-most FPTS per game to opposing wide receivers.
Now, the Lions’ defense is also ravaged by injuries, which has only made the matchup more enticing. In the last three weeks, Detroit’s conceding 294.7 opponent passing yards per contest — the most of any NFC squad. In that same span, the Lions are allowing opponents to average 9.4 yards per pass attempt, which is easily the worst mark in the NFL.
This tilt has all the makings of a shootout and, in such a scenario, I want some exposure to the big-play ability of Deebo Samuel. It definitely doesn’t hurt that’s he’s cheaper than both George Kittle ($9,000) and Jauan Jennings ($7,800), too.
Start or Sit Deebo Samuel? Start.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
