It was an eventful Week 17 of NFL action with several games around the league playing a major role in deciding the playoff picture. The Detroit Lions will cap off the week facing the San Francisco 49ers but there will not be playoff stakes in this matchup.
All eyes will be on next week’s matchup with the Minnesota Vikings which will decide the winner of the NFC North and the top overall seed in the Conference. Detroit enters tonight’s game with a 13-2 record, which would have them locked in as the top spot in four other divisions, but the fight will continue until the final week against Minnesota. Regardless, they must focus on tonight’s matchup against the San Francisco 49ers who have already been eliminated from the playoff race with their 6-9 record.
The Lions enter this game as 3.5-point favorites at -198 on the Moneyline. The 49ers are +164 underdogs on the Moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook and the game total is set at 50.5 points.
There are plenty of ways to get involved in the Monday Night Football action. One of the more unique features on DraftKings this year is Pick6 Fantasy Football! In this article, we will look at my top Pick6 choices across both matchups and simply pick higher or lower on the set statistic for each player.
Isaac Guerendo More Than 82.5 Rushing & Receiving Yards
Injuries have been the unfortunate story of the season for the 49ers with this being especially impactful to their running backs. Christian McCaffrey started the season with injury concerns that proved to be far worse than the 49ers were letting on. He was able to suit up for just four games this season before officially being shut down with a PCL injury. McCaffrey was then joined by fellow running back Jordan Mason on injured reserve due to an ankle injury.
This has paved the way for Isaac Guerendo to step into the starting running back role. He also has not been immune to injuries himself and missed last week due to a hamstring issue. Guerendo was limited in practice this week but is expected to be able to suit up without limitations. Detroit’s defense has had similar luck with injuries and it feels as if they are signing guys off the street and throwing them on the field in recent weeks. While the team continues to have success, one has to wonder how long this can go on.
Looking at Guerendo’s production this season, he has carried the ball 73 times for 381 yards and four touchdowns. The former fourth-round pick has also added 11 receptions for 87 yards. He has recorded more than 82.5 combined rushing and receiving yards in three games already this season and will have a chance to add to this. While San Francisco’s goals for the season are already out of reach, Guerendo is still looking to cement his long-term role and prove he is capable of consistently producing at the NFL level. Expect him to make the most of his opportunity tonight and record more than 83 yards from scrimmage for the fourth time this year.
Jahmyr Gibbs Less Than 83.5 Rushing Yards
On the other side of the running back matchup sits Jahmry Gibbs. The Alabama product has skyrocketed up the list of most talented running backs and has already produced over 1,100 rushing yards and nearly 1,600 yards from scrimmage this season. Most of this came while splitting carries with David Montgomery, who suffered an MCL injury that has put the remainder of his season in doubt. This has made Gibbs the clear-cut top running back on the roster and increased his importance to the team.
While Dan Campbell told reporters he had no plans to rest players earlier this week, one has to wonder if his mind changed at all following Sunday’s results. Next week’s matchup with the Vikings will fully decide their seeding and Detroit would be wise to make sure Gibbs is available. While he will still surely see some opportunities, Craig Reynolds tallied four rushing attempts last week for the Lions and should be in line for increased opportunity.
Overall this season Gibbs has only rushed for more than 83.5 rushing yards in five games. While Montgomery’s carries certainly impacted this and does not make it quite fair to compare, Gibbs may not reach this rushing total even if receiving his full opportunity. With the importance of next week’s game in the minds of the Lions coaching staff, don’t be surprised if Gibbs’ role is even more limited than we expect.
Amon-Ra St. Brown Less Than 6.5 Receptions
Amon-Ra St. Browns has played his way into the conversation for one of the true top wide receivers in the league. The fourth-year wide receiver has tallied 101 receptions for 1,126 receiving yards, and a career-best 11 touchdowns already this season. He ranks fifth in the league in receptions, eighth in receiving yards, and is tied for third in receiving touchdowns.
St. Brown is averaging 6.7 receptions per game but also could be a player the Lions chose to conserve his workload. The 25-year-old has been held to less than 6.5 receptions in nine of the 15 games this year anyway including four of the past five weeks.
The San Francisco defense has been all over the place this season but has not lived up to their typical standard. They rank 20th in points allowed but second in yards given up. San Francisco also ranks third in passing yards allowed and seventh in passing touchdowns given up. With a respectable defense and the concern for his snaps being limited due to next week’s matchup, expect St. Brown to be held to less than 6.5 receptions for the 10th time this year.
Tim Patrick More Than 28.5 Receiving Yards
One of the more pleasant surprises this season for the Lions has been the gradual emergence of Tim Patrick. The former Broncos wide receiver missed each of the past two seasons due to a torn ACL and torn Achilles. He made his return to the field this year and has gradually seen his level of opportunity expand in the Detroit offense. Overall he has tallied 31 receptions for 379 receiving yards and three touchdowns this season.
Patrick has impressed as the season has gone on and logged 65% or more of the offensive snaps across each of the past four weeks. He has recorded more than 28.5 receiving yards in six games this season and will be the beneficiary if the workload is scaled back for St. Brown and the more notable names in the offense. While he was held without a catch last week, Patrick has recorded more than 28.5 receiving yards in the previous four games.
The more weapons the Lions continue to develop the more dangerous they become as an offense. They have shown a willingness to dig deep in their playbook beyond what any other team does and get creative. Patrick saw eight targets in a game just two weeks ago and should be more involved in the offense tonight as Detroit limits the risk on their more notable starts.
Jameson Williams More Than 51.5 Receiving Yards
Jameson Williams has been one of the more volatile players in the NFL this season. Overall he has tallied 47 receptions for 890 yards and six touchdowns. He has recorded over 120 receiving yards in three games this season but has also been held below 10 yards twice. The Alabama product is coming off a career-high 143 receiving yards last week and is averaging 68.5 receiving yards overall.
While Williams is a huge part of the Lions’ offense and a big play threat, Detroit likely will not be as cautious with him compared to players like Jahmyr Gibbs or Amon-Ra St. Brown. It has been tough to fully gauge this 49ers’ defense, but they have done a much better job shutting down the middle of the field this year. Williams does most of his damage on the outside and this could open the door for more production.
Williams has recorded more than 51.5 receiving yards in nine of the 13 games this year. He is the biggest big-play threat in the Detroit offense and it could take just one play to reach this number. Expect Williams to make his impact felt and record more than 52 or more yards for the 10th time this season.
Brock Purdy More Than 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
While the season has not lived up to expectations for the 49ers as a team, the organization should be encouraged by what they have seen from Brock Purdy this year. The lingering doubt of whether he can truly be put to bed and this will likely be proven with a massive contract extension in the offseason. The former Mr. Irrelevant has completed 65.0% of his passes this year for 3,487 yards and 17 touchdowns. The contract talks will be one of the larger talking points in the NFL this offseason and it would benefit Purdy to finish the season on a high note.
Detroit’s defense continues to perform well even as the injuries stack up. The biggest weakness in the Lions’ defense has been stopping the pass as they rank 28th in passing yards allowed and 22nd in net yards per pass attempt. They have, however, managed to hold opponents to the fewest passing touchdowns in the league. These numbers are a bit over-inflated due to the Lions holding a lead in just about every game this season.
Purdy has thrown for more than 1.5 passing touchdowns in five games this season and still has plenty to play for individually. Injuries have to begin playing a role on the Lions’ defense at some point even if this is just in the form of miscommunications from players unfamiliar with playing with each other. Expect Prudy to have San Francisco playing with their usual fire and throw for more than 1.5 touchdowns for the sixth time this season.
What is DraftKings Pick6?
Pick6 is a peer-to-peer fantasy variant where you build a lineup (“Pick Set”) of at least two players and select whether you believe each will outperform their listed stat projection. Enter your Pick Set in Pick6 contests to compete against other users. Get enough picks correct and win a share of cash prizes.
How to Play DraftKings Pick6
Create a Pick Set
Create a Pick Set by choosing 2+ players from the same sport and Pick Group (a set of picks available from a group of set competitions). For each player, simply select if you think they’ll have more or less than their listed stat projection. In each Pick Set, you cannot pick the same player twice and you must select players from at least two different teams.
Enter an Amount
Once you finalize your Pick Set, choose your entry fee amount. Your entries will be automatically distributed into available contests, subject to your confirmation.
Sweat Your Picks
When the games go live, use the My Picks tab to follow your picks in real time to track how your players are performing against their projections and how they stack up against other users.
Compete for Prizes
Make enough correct picks and win a share of the contests’ guaranteed prizes. Any prizes won will be credited to your DraftKings account after contests are finalized.
Play at DraftKings Pick6 or by downloading the DraftKings Pick6 app on Apple or Google!
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is seanbarnard) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
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