The Week 17 Sunday slate will conclude with a thrilling matchup between rookie quarterbacks with playoff stakes on the line.
Washington will host the matchup and enter with a 10-5 record. They can officially clinch a playoff opportunity with a victory. Jayden Daniels has changed the outlook for the franchise greatly and has played his way into being the Rookie of the Year favorite. Washington rallies around their star rookie and the organization has the most buzz it has had in years.
It has not been as clean of a ride for the Atlanta Falcons this season. Atlanta is still heavily in the playoff mix and entered the day tied with the Buccaneers for the top of the NFC South with their 8-7 record. After several weeks of underwhelming production from Kirk Cousins, Atlanta elected to elevate Michael Penix Jr to the starting role. He made his debut last week completing 18 of his 27 pass attempts for 202 passing yards. Penix will be looking to build off this in his second start and has a chance to make a statement with the bright lights of prime time upon him.
The Commanders enter this game as 3.5-point favorites and -175 on the Moneyline. The Falcons are +145 underdogs on the Moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook and the game total is set at 46 points. With the stage set, here are my favorite prop bets for the Sunday night clash.
Drake London Over 5.5 Receptions (+110)
Drake London has been the biggest beneficiary of the Falcons’ quarterback change. Despite missing about the final 20 minutes of last week’s game, London caught five passes on eight targets. His 30.8% target share showed a belief from Penix and was an indication he should be the clear-cut number one moving forward. Darnell Mooney and Ray-Ray McCloud had each battled for targets with Cousins under center, but there were encouraging signs for London last week.
This also is a great matchup for the Falcons’ pass-catchers as a whole. Washington will be without Marshon Lattimore this week due to a hamstring injury leaving them shorthanded at the corner spot.
Overall, London has recorded over 5.5 receptions in eight of the 15 games he has played including as many as 12 in a matchup. Atlanta’s quarterback uncertainty throughout London’s career has made it difficult to evaluate exactly where he stacks up in the hierarchy of wide receivers. Look for the former first-round pick to flourish as Penix begins to settle in. Expect there to be a conscious effort to get London involved in the offense and for him to record at least six receptions for the ninth time this season.
Jayden Daniels Over 48.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
While his arm has been plenty impressive in its own right, Jayden Daniels’ dual-threat ability is what makes him so special. The Heisman winner battled some mid-season rib injuries but has returned to 100% and has looked more willing as a runner in recent games. Overall, he is averaging 49.1 rushing yards per game and has recorded over 48.5 rushing yards in seven of the 15 games. Just last week he ran for 81 yards on nine carries and produced 66 yards with his legs the week prior.
There have been inconsistent levels of production from the Falcons’ defense this season. Overall they rank 20th in points allowed, 16th in yards given up, and 11th in rushing yards allowed. They have not faced very many dual-threat quarterbacks this year, but it should be noted that Jalen Hurts rushed for 85 yards against the Falcons back in Week 2.
With the playoff stakes on the line and Daniels looking healthy again in recent weeks, expect Washington to be willing to rely on Daniels’ legs. The LSU product has reached this number in back-to-back weeks leading into this game and expect everything to be on the table with their playoff goals on the line. Daniels can break free for more than 48.5 yards on any given run and expect him to have no problem reaching this total on Sunday Night Football.
Michael Penix Jr Over 199.5 Passing Yards (-120)
Everyone was shocked at the Falcons’ decision to draft Michael Penix Jr with the eighth overall pick in this year’s NFL Draft just weeks after handing Kirk Cousins a massive contract. It turns out the team is relieved they did and plugged in the rookie to the starting lineup with their playoff hopes still in sight. Penix was uninspiring in his debut but still managed to eclipse 199.5 passing yards. He completed 18 of his 27 pass attempts for 202 passing yards.
With another week of reps as the starter, expect Penix to look even more comfortable. The Washington product was looked at as one of the more NFL-ready quarterbacks in this class and will be expected to make an immediate impact in this matchup. The 24-year-old is incredibly impressive at making reads at the line of scrimmage and has the arm talent to make whatever throws are asked of him.
The injuries to the Washington defense should further maximize the opportunities for Penix to make plays. There are plays to be made in the Atlanta passing attack that Cousins was unable to capitalize on. Expect an improved performance from the rookie in his second start and for him to throw for 200+ yards in the second consecutive game.
Drake London & Terry McLaurin to Combined for 150+ Receiving Yards (+125)
Located in the player specials section on DraftKings, taking a chance on Drake London and Terry McLaurin to combine for over 150+ receiving yards at +125 odds is great value. Looking at their individual receiving yard props, London sits at 61.5 for the game while McLaurin’s is set at 64.5.
Both of these wide receivers are averaging more receiving yards than their prop number on the season and have appealing matchups. While we discussed London’s growth in the offense above, McLaurin finds himself in a similar spot. With Noah Brown done for the year, McLaurin has received 16 total targets across the past two games. Atlanta also is battling injuries in the secondary with Kevin King headlining their list of absences.
McLaurin has recorded 100+ yard receiving games five times already this year while London has recorded a 150+ yards game individually this year. Atlanta allows the ninth-most targets, ninth-most receiving yards, and 11th-most yards per route run. Expect both pass-catchers to play a role in this game and capitalize on the +125 odds for the two top wideouts to combine for 150+ receiving yards.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is seanbarnard) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
