Bring on the Harbaugh Bowl!
With John Harbaugh’s Baltimore Ravens currently holding the third seed in the AFC and younger brother Jim Harbaugh guiding the Los Angeles Chargers to an almost-guaranteed playoff berth in his first season in Southern California, the Harbaughs are currently on track to meet in the Wild Card round of the playoffs.
But before he can worry about taking down his older brother in the playoffs, the younger Harbaugh must first contend with a banana peel game against the New England Patriots, who sit in last place in the AFC with a 3-12 record. The only silver lining for New England is that the game will take place in Foxborough, Mass., where the high for Saturday is just 39 degrees.
Leading the line for the Chargers will be quarterback Justin Herbert, who has evolved beyond just the reckless gunslinger he was in the early part of his career. He has become a somewhat more cautious passer, but it has helped him avoid mistakes. This season, Herbert has completed 64.7% of his passes for 3,243 yards, 18 touchdowns, and just three interceptions.
On DraftKings Sportsbook, Los Angeles is a four-point favorite, and the point total is set at 42.5. Below, I’ve identified my favorite prop bets centered around Herbert.
Best Justin Herbert Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Justin Herbert O231.5 Passing Yards (-110)
This season, the Chargers have operated a relatively conservative offense, dropping back to pass on only 55.0% of plays, the 13th-lowest rate in football. Herbert has thrown for fewer than 200 yards in seven games this season, including two of his last four weeks. But recently, Los Angeles has gotten more aggressive, calling passing plays on 65.6% of its snaps in the past three weeks, the fifth-highest rate in football.
Expect that reliance on the pass to continue in relatively mild conditions in New England; although it will be cold, there is no concern about precipitation or wind gusts, which should make ideal passing conditions for Herbert and the Chargers offense. Running back Gus Edwards was ruled out with an ankle injury and his backfield partner, JK Dobbins, is questionable. If neither of them suits up on Saturday, passing will seem like a much more appealing option for Los Angeles. Dobbins has missed the last four weeks with an ankle injury, but Edwards has been in the lineup.
Meanwhile, the Patriots have a pretty average passing defense. New England hasn’t been challenged super frequently, having given up only 3,339 passing yards so far this season, fewer than all but seven teams. However, opposing quarterbacks have been pretty effective when they have thrown at the Patriots, putting up a 97.2 passer rating, the eighth-best in football. New England has also given up a first down on 36% of throws, the fifth-highest rate in the league, so Herbert should be able to extend drives and rack up yards.
Justin Herbert O1.5 Touchdown Passes (-105)
Although Herbert hasn’t thrown a ton of touchdown passes this season, he has tossed at least two in each of his past two games as the Chargers’ offense has gotten more aggressive. Los Angeles has also gotten healthier, with wide receiver Ladd McConkey returning in Week 14 after a one-game injury absence and tight end Will Dissly could play after missing the last two weeks. With the playoffs right around the corner, the Chargers also have a lot more to play for than the Patriots do.
New England has been relatively susceptible through the air, allowing 23 touchdown passes this year, more than all but 13 teams. The Patriots’ defense has also regressed a little bit as the season has gone on, giving up at least 24 points in each of the last five games. Meanwhile, Los Angeles’ 34-point outburst against a strong Denver Broncos defense last Thursday was tied for its best offensive performance of the season.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook, lines and odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
