The 11-4 Green Bay Packers head east this Sunday to face the 13-2 Minnesota Vikings at home for an NFC North clash that is sure to bring fireworks. Matt LaFleur and his squad are coming off of a convincing shutout win over the struggling New Orleans Saints, while Sam Darnold and Justin Jefferson led Minnesota to a late-game victory against the Seahawks in Week 16.
While both teams have already clinched their playoff births, playoff seeding is affected by the result of this matchup: Minnesota can become King of the North by winning out if the Lions lose out, while the Packers can only finish second in the North at best with a No. 5 seed in the NFC.
Per ESPN’s Rob Demovsky and Kevin Seifert, the Pack’s and Vikings’ combined 24 wins is the second most in the modern history of the franchises—plain and simple, we’re in for a treat on Sunday.
Below, I’ve listed and broke down my top picks on the DraftKings Sportsbook for Packers vs. Vikings at 4:25 p.m. ET.
TOP PICKS FOR GB-MIN
Jordan Love Over 248.5 Passing Yards (-120): The last time these two teams met, J. Love was starting under center for the first time after suffering a knee injury in Week 1 vs. the Eagles. As a result, the QB was inaccurate, struggled against the blitz, and threw three interceptions. However, he tossed four touchdowns and 389 yards in a rallying effort to pull the Pack within two points of a victory. What’s changed since then? A lot. Love is healthy, more mobile, capable of escaping pressure, and hasn’t thrown a pick in his last five contests. While the Vikings blitz at the highest rate in the league (38%), Love has improved against the blitz as of late, completing 9/11 attempts in Week 16 and 8/14 attempts for two touchdowns when facing the blitz in Week 14 (vs. Detroit).
It’s also no secret Brian Flores’ run defense is top-notch. Minnesota currently ranks second against the run, allowing just 87.1 yards per game. While Josh Jacobs has been a tackle-breaking dominant force, he faces a tough battle on the ground—Jacobs only produced 51 rush yards the last time these two teams met. Love will have to make smart, insightful decisions in the pocket to evade oncoming pressure, and balance the passing game with the run game the Pack have established the past handful of games. I like Love to hit over 248.5 yards, and blowing this number out of the water isn’t out of the question.
Jordan Addison Over 4.5 Receptions (-105): Minnesota has a great passing attack. From arguable the best wide receiver in the league in Justin Jefferson—the Ja’Marr Chase conversation is for another day—a brilliant mind in Kevin O’Connell, a talented WR2 that could be a WR1 on many teams in the league, and a resurgent QB in Sam Darnold, this team is very well-rounded. Let’s talk about the latter two for now. Jordan Addison and Darnold have built a chemistry that unlocks this offense when facing zone coverage. Darnold has faced zone at the 3rd-highest rate this season according to Next Gen Stats, and has thrown five touchdowns and a +36.9 EPA when targeting Addison—that’s the 4th-most amongst QB-WR duos.
While the Packers’ secondary is on the stronger side of the league, they are missing star cornerback Jaire Alexander. With Alexander on the field, Green Bay has allowed a 61% completion percentage to quarterbacks, which is 11% lower than when he is not on the field. That being said, this isn’t a defense you will take the top off of. GB has allowed the lowest completion percentage above expected on deep pass attempts with the 2nd-most picks on those types of attempts. I’d expect Addison to be utilized through the slot and the middle of the field rather than as a deep downfield option, and will rack up targets in what is guaranteed to be a tough matchup for both parties involved.
DraftKings Sportsbook has a litany of stats provided for you to preview the game and aid in placing bets on the sportsbook! Here are some notable statistics ahead of Sunday’s matchup:
- Justin Jefferson has recorded 81+ receiving yards in each of the Vikings’ last six Sunday games at U.S. Bank Stadium.
- Sam Darnold has recorded 231+ passing yards in each of the Vikings’ last 10 games.
- Josh Jacobs has scored at least one touchdown in each of the Packers’ last six games.
The NFC North this season is absolutely unreal. It’s a gift to get this matchup towards the end of the season, with Minnesota-Detroit right around the corner. Buckle up people, because the King of the North will be revealed in due time.
Place your NFL bets at DraftKings Sportsbook or by downloading the DraftKings Sportsbook app.
The Crown Is Yours: Sign up for DraftKings and experience the ultimate host for games and betting experiences!
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook, lines and odds subject to change.
