The NFL has blessed us with a three-game Saturday slate––Chargers vs. Patriots, Broncos vs. Bengals and Cardinals vs. Rams. Every team besides the Patriots is looking to secure playoff spots, so hopefully, we get some high-scoring games that feature tons of touchdowns. Touchdown prop bets are always fun but nothing quite beats the rush of first touchdown scorer prop bets.
There are many intriguing options on DraftKings Sportsbook spread across all three games––J.K. Dobbins (+600), Ja’Marr Chase (+550), or maybe Puka Nacua (+600)? Below, I break down my favorite first touchdown scorer pick for each game.
Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots
Rhamondre Stevenson First TD Scorer (+700)
Stevenson has scored the first touchdown in two games this season and faces a middle-of-the-pack Chargers run defense that has allowed a rushing touchdown in back-to-back games. New England does not deploy a great rushing attack but Los Angeles’ defense ranks 15th in rush EPA. Stevenson has averaged 4.4 first-quarter carries and 7.8 first-half carries this season, too, and Drake Maye has looked better each week. The Chargers are stingy in the red zone but Stevenson leads the team in red zone attempts by a wide margin and will receive the nod over Antonio Gibson when the time comes.
Denver Broncos at Cincinnati Bengals
Audric Estime First TD Scorer (+1100)
It’s a gross play… I understand. I’m simply targeting Cincinnati’s awful defense, especially in the red zone. Denver’s running back room is nearly impossible to gauge but Estime is clearly the biggest back and will likely receive the bulk of the red zone carries. The Broncos have shown they can get going early, scoring 27+ points in five straight games. The Bengals rank 29th in rush EPA and have allowed the seventh-most touchdowns to opposing running backs this season.
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams
Kyren Williams First TD Scorer (+320)
There’s nothing to overthink here. Williams has scored 10 of his 15 touchdowns at home and has scored the first touchdown in four games this season. He scored Los Angeles’ lone touchdown in Week 2 against Arizona in a 41-10 blowout, and I doubt the outcome of this one will be the same with playoff implications added. Arizona’s defense ranks 27th in rush EPA and 26th in yards allowed per carry and has allowed opposing offenses to find success early over the last three games, allowing an average of eight first-quarter points. Feed that man the ball as much as possible.
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