Denver Broncos at Cincinnati Bengals (Saturday 4:30pm ET)
As good as the Broncos have been compared to expectations this season, the underdog role has brought them back to average. Denver is an NFL-best 11-4 ATS this season, but just 4-4 ATS as a dog, losing by five points per game. That includes last Thursday night, when the Broncos went on the road and blew a big second half lead to the Chargers in Los Angeles. Denver feels like its due for some regression here, especially on the road against hungry teams. The Bengals are one of those teams, still looking to make up ground for some unfortunate results early in the season. Cincy has finally found some momentum, ripping off three wins in a row, all by at least a touchdown. I think we see that continue at home on Saturday afternoon.
The Play: Bengals -3 (-120) – 1.5-units
Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Sunday 1:00pm ET)
We’ve been riding Bucky Irving’s rushing props all season, and even though he’s peaked at a new high number, I’m going to continue to trust him in this spot. Irving has only rushed for over 80 yards four times this season, but three of them have come over his last five games. That game includes an overtime victory at Carolina, where he put up a whopping 152 rushing yards on 25 carries in this very matchup. The Panthers continue to rank dead-last in rushing yards allowed this season, and have given up an average of well over 200 per game over their last three games. Over Carolina’s last seven games, it has allowed six 100-yard rushers, with those players each averaging over 133 rushing yards per game. It’s a big number, but look for Bucky to go off once again.
The Play: Bucky Irving OVER 79.5 Rushing Yards (-120) – 1-unit
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (Sunday 1:00pm ET)
Just playing the narrative here, as Aaron Rodgers enters Sunday with 499 career touchdown passes. Obviously, the Jets season is down the drain, so while they aren’t playing to win, Rodgers does care about career milestones like this. Adams caught career touchdown passes 200 and 400 from Rodgers with Green Bay, and said it would be “dope” to keep adding his name to the history books by catching No. 500. Again, with nothing real on the line in this game, look for Rodgers to make a conscious effort to find Adams in the end zone. It doesn’t hurt that DraftKings Sportsbook has a terrific price on this prop, with most of the market in the +115 to +125 range.
The Play: Davante Adams Anytime Touchdown (+150) – 1-unit
Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars (Sunday 1:00pm ET)
This one is another narrative play to a degree, as Ridley faces his former team in Jacksonville. Tennessee made an effort to get him the ball the first time these two teams played this season, targeting Ridley 12 times in the game — which he turned into seven receptions for 59 yards. That was with Will Levis under center, though, and Mason Rudolph should give his pass-catchers a higher ceiling. Rudolph and Ridley hooked up for 78 yards and a touchdown last week against the Colts, and now face a Jacksonville secondary that’s allowing the most passing yards per game in the NFL by nearly 13 yards per. Combine that matchup and the revenge angle, and I think we see a big game out of Ridley here, who’s working towards a 1,00-yard season.
The Play: Calvin Ridley OVER 63.5 Receiving Yards (-115) – 1-unit
Miami Dolphins at Cleveland Browns (Sunday 4:05pm ET)
Just a gross game here, from a weather standpoint in Cleveland, as well as the play on the field. Miami struggles mightily without Tua Tagovailoa to begin with, and now has to face a decent Browns defense in poor conditions. We know missing Tua also usually has a massive impact on limiting Tyreek Hill, which takes away a lot of the big play ability. On the other side, Dorian Thompson-Robinson has been completely incapable of moving Cleveland’s offense. The Browns haven’t scored more than 14 points in any game that he’s played meaningful snaps, including 13 total points the last two weeks. In his start last week, DTR could only lead the team to six points against a Cincinnati defense among the league’s worst. Super low total here, but these offenses should be in position for dreadful results. Hopefully this game is like watching paint dry and we can cash an under on low number.
The Play: UNDER 33 (-110) – 1-unit
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (Sunday 4:25pm ET)
This is a monster game in the NFC for the division and the conference. Both teams are playing tremendous football, winning games in different ways. Minnesota won this matchup on the road earlier this season, in a game that began a blowout, but wound up being just a two-point margin. The Packers look like they figured something out throughout that game, and even if some of it was desperation, I expect them to carry some confidence into this game.
While he did have to sling it 54 times due to game script, Jordan Love threw for 389 yards and four touchdowns in that matchup. The Vikings, despite all the success this season, have allowed the third-most passing yards per game this season. That includes the big day to Love, as well as over 300 passing yards allowed just last week in Seattle. Ultimately, I feel the Packers are the better team, and get revenge on the road here. To do so, I expect another big game from Love, so I’ll play his passing prop as well as GB on the moneyline.
The Plays: Packers ML (-102) for 1.5-units (added more Sunday morning) and Jordan Love 250+ Passing Yards (-105) for 1-unit
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook, lines and odds subject to change.
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
