With Christmas unofficially launching the NBA season into center stage, buckle up for the main stretch of the 2024-25 season. Eight games will take place tonight, including several stars from the Christmas slate returning to the floor.
Tipping off at 7 p.m. ET, the Knicks and Magic will start the night in an Eastern Conference clash. The Pacers will travel to face the Celtics while Victor Wembanyama and the Spurs will travel to Brooklyn to play the Nets in the 7:30 p.m. ET window.
The Rockets will host the Timberwolves while the Pelicans face the Grizzlies at 8 p.m. ET. At 9 p.m. ET, the Nuggets will host the Cavaliers while the Mavericks travel to face the Suns. Finally, the Warriors face the Clippers at 10 p.m. ET.
You can check out each matchup and all prop bets on DraftKings Sportsbook. Here are my favorite prop bets in each matchup on the Friday night slate.
Myles Turner Over 1.5 Made Three-Pointers (-115)
The Indiana Pacers are only 15-16 as they enter this matchup against the defending champion Celtics. Tyrese Haliburton is showing some concerning levels of play and the struggles of the team’s star have limited their overall chances in a major way. They will look to turn things around against a tough opponent on Friday.
The biggest storyline to note is the three-point volume. Boston leads the NBA in three-point attempts this season with an average of 50.4 perimeter shots per game. The Chicago Bulls are second in this category with 44 three-point attempts per game with the Hornets and Warriors being the only other teams to average more than 40 long-range shots per night.
Trading two points for three points is a losing formula so the Pacers must prepare for an increase in perimeter output tonight. Haliburton leads the charge for the team with 8.4 long-range shots per game while Myles Turner is second on the team with 5.1 three-point attempts per game. Turner has connected on 39.9 percent of these attempts which comes out to an average of 2.0 makes per game. He has recorded over 1.5 made three-pointers in 16 of the 29 games he has played this season.
This will be the second matchup between these two teams with Turner having missed the first game. Looking back at last year, the Pacers’ big man made over 1.5 three-pointers in two of the five matchups with the Celtics while shooting 1-11 from three across the other three games. Expect there to be enough volume from the perimeter tonight. Count on him to knock down two or more three-pointers for the 17th time this year.
Jaylen Wells Over 10.5 Points (-105)
After plenty of buzz leading up to the draft about how poor this rookie class would be, the Memphis Grizzlies managed to walk away with two players capable of making a playoff impact in year one. While Zach Edey heard his name come off the board sooner, it is Jaylen Wells who has quietly made a Rookie of the Year case for himself.
Wells is averaging 11.5 points, 3.2 rebounds and 1.7 assists across 24.5 minutes per game. He’s started in 26 of the 31 games he’s played. The Washington State product made the most of his opportunity during the Grizzlies’ injury issues and has latched onto a significant role within the team. He has scored over 10.5 points in seven of the past 13 games and 17 of the 31 games overall.
The Grizzlies play the Pelicans tonight who fall on the shortlist of teams with worse injury luck than Memphis. New Orleans has played at the seventh-fastest pace in the NBA over the past 15 games while the Grizzlies lead the league in pace on the season. Memphis has also led the league in offensive rebounds over the past five games which should lead to additional offensive opportunities. Wells has earned an increased offensive role and will continue to be active in the offense. Expect the up-tempo pace to benefit him and for the 21-year-old to record over 10.5 points for the 18th time this season.
Michael Porter Jr Under 18.5 Points (-110)
Nikola Jokic continues to play at an unbelievably high level, but Denver has struggled to get any sort of regular production from his supporting cast. Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr headline the inconsistency with each of these supposed co-stars falling short of expectations far too often this season. Porter is averaging 18.4 points, 6.8 rebounds and 2.8 assists per game. Despite him shooting 51.7 percent from the field and 38.7 percent from beyond the arc, Porter has had some memorable dips in his play.
Looking at tonight’s matchup, the Nuggets are set to face off with the Cavaliers. They have been one of the biggest surprises in the NBA this season and hold the best record in the league. Cleveland ranks ninth in opponents’ points per game, seventh in defensive efficiency and sixth in opponents shooting percentage. Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen patrol the paint and serve as the defensive anchors for the Cavaliers. They allow the perimeter defenders to make gambles in an attempt to create turnovers. Opposing small forwards are attempting the third-fewest three-point attempts per game when facing the Cavaliers, and Denver is ranked last in three-point attempts as a team.
Porter has been held to under 18.5 points in 14 of the 28 games. While he is coming off back-to-back games with at least 22 points, Porter was held to under 18.5 points in the previous four games. With a tough defense in front of him and Porter showing inconsistent outputs, expect a dip in production tonight. The Cavaliers have shown flashes of being one of the best defenses in the NBA, and despite a bit of recent regression, expect them to impose themselves tonight.
Buddy Hield Over 10.5 Points (-120)
Buddy Hield is averaging 13.6 points, 3.3 rebounds and 1.3 assists per game. He has recorded over 10.5 points in 18 of the 29 games this season. This includes two of the last three games.
The Warriors will play the Clippers, who have leaned on their defense as an identity this season. That said, Los Angeles still has some vulnerabilities that Hield and the Warriors can exploit. The Clippers rank fourth in the NBA in pace over the past five games while the Warriors rank seventh in this category when playing on the road. Golden State also ranks fifth in offensive rebounds which provides another route to additional opportunities. Opposing shooting guards are averaging 2.6 made three-pointers per game when playing the Clippers which is the eighth-highest rate in the league. They rank 12th in opponents’ three-point attempts per game overall. This creates a great chance for Hield as 67.6 percent of his shot attempts have come from beyond the three-point arc this season.
Golden State is still desperately searching for avenues of consistent offense outside of Steph Curry, and Hield is firmly in this mix. With the Clippers showing some vulnerabilities defending the perimeter and Hield capable of excelling with this opportunity, look for Hield to score at least 11 points tonight. He has been held under 10.5 in both matchups with the Clippers this season, but Hield has shot an uncharacteristic 6-21 (28.6 percent) from the field and 3-15 (20 percent) on three-point attempts in these games. Brush away these outlier shooting splits and count on a better performance tonight.
Place your NBA bets at DraftKings Sportsbook or by downloading the DraftKings Sportsbook app.
The Crown Is Yours: Sign up for DraftKings and experience the ultimate host for games and betting experiences!
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is seanbarnard) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
