Another round of Saturday Night Lights, another heated divisional rivalry. Last Saturday it was the Steelers and the Ravens; this time it’s the Los Angeles Rams and the Arizona Cardinals. Let’s get you set for the NFL $600K Saturday Night Showdown [$200K to 1st] (ARI @ LAR) NFL DFS contest on DraftKings, where I think there’s a ton of value in some utility players for both teams.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $600K Saturday Night Showdown [$200K to 1st] (ARI @ LAR)
For up-to-the-minute news, analysis and lineups, download the DK Network app. You also can follow DK Network on Twitter @dknetwork.
SHOWDOWN STRATEGY
Captain’s Picks
Kyler Murray ($15,000 CP) – The hinges on the swinging doors you just heard silence the entire establishment was indeed Kyler Murray strutting his way into the Last Chance Saloon. Sure, he’s still been a tad flashy, particularly on last week’s touchdown scamper against the Carolina Panthers. And, headed into Week 14, Kyler Murray led all quarterbacks with +57 rushing yards over expectation, according to NFL Next Gen Stats.
Frankly, I think people might be evaluating this game as too easy a win for the Rams. Let’s not forget how slowly the Rams tend to start on offense, as was their reputation during their injury-riddled 1-4 start. But for the barnburner against the Bills, this has been a bit of an unfortunate identity to Los Angeles’ offense, even in December. This could allow Kyler Murray to hang a hefty number on the Rams with his dynamism, especially in a bounceback spot. Murray torched the Rams for 28.54 FPTs last time he played them. I expect a similar number here—well worthy of the investment.
Kyren Williams ($15,900 CP) – Call it recency bias, if you want, with the Rams’ last two games being so run-heavy. I can see the argument that this might change; the Niners and the Jets played the Rams tight, and McVay’s clear plan was to get clean wins on the road as conservatively as possible. And, likely, with as few injuries as possible—weather and conditions were indeed a factor for a good portion of both the Niners and Jets games.
But, in any case, Williams’s 122 rushing yards on 23 carries against the Jets in Week 16 is exactly the sort of performance the Rams expect of him when they rely on their run game. And, according to NFL Next Gen Stats, Kyren did a whole lot of that work himself:
He may be without Rob Havenstein in this game, but Kyren’s finally been running behind a consistent offensive line grouping. Not to mention, Cooper Kupp seems to be operating in more of a pre-snap motion/blocker utility role these days, which only creates more room for Williams in boxes where his line has the advantage.
Blake Corum will steal some touches for sure, but Williams is the feature back in Los Angeles, and he’s as greased-up as ever. If you’re not comfortable taking Kyler because of his recent play, it should stand to reason you’d want to back Williams because of his stellar play.
FLEX Plays
Greg Dortch ($2,200) – I like Dortch here because of the success we saw Hunter Henry and Garrett Wilson have on short routes against the Rams in both their inter-conference AFC East games. Their pass rush is good, but even though they mostly rush only four, their linebackers tend to give lots of over-the-middle cushion. It’s allowed zone-beaters like the above to feast over the middle, such that utility players such as Dortch, here, might feast at this absolute dollar-store price tag.
Admittedly, Dortch’s offensive snaps have declined as the season has gone on. He averages around 15-20 in recent weeks, as opposed to 30-35 in the beginning of the year. Having said that, I’m taking a complete flier on him to be the unexpected piece that gashes the Rams’ vulnerable defensive unit.
Call it a feel play. Call it a shoutout for all my Greg Dortch apologists.
Tyler Higbee ($3,200) – Momentum is its own reward. That’s our motto for backing Higbee, here, to whom Sean McVay and the rest of the Rams joyously handed Week 16’s game ball for his touchdown against the Jets. It was something storybook for Higbee, on whom many analysts were high after an ascendant 2023—that is, until he tore his ACL in the Wild Card Playoff game against the Detroit Lions.
There’s reason to believe Higbee’s return might open up more opportunity for Cooper Kupp to run intermediate routes, and serve less as a utility man (pre-snap motions, blocking, etc.). But I’m going to believe Higbee provides 200%-300% returns on this dirt-cheap price, and perhaps finds the end zone.
Fades
Marvin Harrison, Jr. ($7,400) – Good grief. Do we chalk it up to rookie doldrums? Usually, we wait for the second-year campaign to start making excuses for shooting stars that end up looking a lot like dirty chemtrails, but we’ve gotta find some sort of rhetorical exercise to give MHJ a break. Or else all of us are very, very wrong. All of us!
Still, I think this is a McBride/Dortch/maybe Michael Wilson-ish game. Harrison’s specialty is in beating defenses over the top, and the best strategy for beating the Rams has been attacking them over the middle and sustaining long possessions. This isn’t a game where Marvin Harrison’s big-play ability is going to need to be on full display. I expect him to get plenty of targets in this one, but I’m discouraged by his recent performances and lack of production.
I don’t think Murray will need to force success to MHJ in this game, so I think he’s unlikely to get more than the eight targets he saw last week against Carolina. I’d be surprised if he crosses the fifty-yard threshold, but for an explosive play or blown coverage.
Lineup Construction
If you take the risk and back Murray as your CP, and follow my FLEX picks as well, you can grab Trey McBride, Cooper Kupp, and Kyren Williams as your big-three FLEX picks. Grabbing Kupp might cover your bases if Higbee doesn’t provide astronomic returns on his value.
THE OUTCOME
This’ll be closer than most folks think. Massive bounceback spot for the Cardinals, who were embarrassed by the Panthers. I would imagine the Cards cover this spread and give the Rams a hell of a time, just like they did back in Week 2. I’m fading Marvin Harrison Jr. but it’s entirely in the realm of possibility that he can exploit the Rams’ young (or, in the case of Witherspoon, simply-too-old) secondary. It could be his game; it will certainly be a Kyler game.
Rams still win, though. They keep finding ways.
Final Score: Los Angeles 24, Arizona 23
The Crown Is Yours: Sign up for DraftKings and experience the ultimate host for games and betting experiences!
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is thegreatdansby9) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
