GPPs are not won by using all of the most popular players on the slate. Being a contrarian in a big-field event can help separate your lineup and gain you leverage over the field when some of the more popular names bust. The goal of this article won’t be to highlight the popular “play-it-safe” NFL names your dad talks about at family dinner.
No. Us? We’re looking for some diamonds in the rough. Guys that no one talks about—not even their own coaches.
OK, we’re not going that deep, but you get the idea—lower ownership and high upside. We’re looking for players who we feel good about, but still make us feel alive inside. That’s the goal.
Let’s dive into Week 17.
Be sure to set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: $2.25M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st]
Top DFS Stack
Game Stack: Buccaneers vs. Panthers
Baker Mayfield ($6,900) – Mike Evans ($7,500) – Rachaad White ($5,700) – Adam Thielen ($5,700)
With a lot of games this week featuring inclement weather or poor quarterbacks, I don’t see any reason why we can’t attack this Tampa Bay – Carolina game that features two poor defenses and lots of potential for big plays in the passing game on both sides of the ball.
The Bucs and Baker Mayfield is coming off a loss to Dallas but continues to impress with his output for fantasy. He’s thrown for nine TDs over his last three games and competed 75% of his passes over his last two. This week, he faces off against a Panthers team that ranks 30th in EPA per play and success rate vs the pass, and has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing QBs this season.
If we’re rolling with the more expensive Mayfield, then we might as well go big and pair him with the also expensive Mike Evans, who has three million reasons to keep trying to make plays this week. Evans has a $3M contract bonus that kicks in when he reaches 70 catches, 1000 yards and 9 TDs, milestones he’s within reach of, if he has a big game vs the Panthers. This wouldn’t be reason enough to play Evans for me most weeks but when you add in the easier matchup and the fact the Buccaneers own defense allowed 23 points against the last time these teams played, then I think the Evans-Mayfield connection makes sense to pay up for this week, on a shorter Sunday slate without as many options as usual.
While we could think about pairing up another WR with Baker, I also like the idea of getting in Rachaad White, who remains the best pass-catcher out of the backfield for Tampa. White already has six receiving TDs on the season so the correlation between him and Mayfield has been outstanding for fantasy this season.
If we’re playing for a comeback play from Carolina, I also wouldn’t recommend getting too fancy. While Ja’Tavion Sanders is a name I could see get some run this week at TE, Adam Thielen makes the most sense as the Panther to target, as he’s posted target shares of 26%, 34%, 27% and 26% over his last four games. Long story short, Theilen is getting WR1 targeting but still available at a very decent price on DraftKings, and up against a Tampa Bay secondary that has now allowed the ninth-most passing TDs and is ranked 31st in success rate vs the pass.
Quarterback
Jordan Love ($6,200)
The Packers haven’t needed Love to do much over the last month or so. He’s thrown the ball less than 30 times in six straight games and has thrown for a single TD in three of those six starts (all of which were Packers wins). However, this week should be different. On top of playing in a dome where we should get more back-and-forth action (and potentially big plays) Green Bay is taking on one of the better rush defenses in the league in Minnesota who ranks second in EPA against the rush this season.
Love had a pass-heavy game script when these two teams met back in Week 4 and threw for 4 TDs and 389 yards in the loss, in his first game back from injury. This week, he’s completely healthy and has been playing extremely efficient ball for the most part, which should set him up for more success against the Vikings’ pass funnel defense. With him having several cheap receivers to stack with, I see no reason not to build around Love, given he’s still relatively cheap at just $6.2K.
Running Back
Breece Hall ($6,300)
Hall took 19 touches in the Jets’ loss to the Rams and looked healthy. He was off the injury report again in Week 17 and has a terrific matchup vs the Bills who have allowed six receiving TDs to opposing RBs and six total TDs to opposing RBs over their last six games.
Further, with this being a division rivalry game it’s hard to see Hall’s usage dropping much from last week, where he played on 79% of the snaps and took 70% of the touches. Overall, this is a great price to take a shot with one of the more dynamic backs in the game vs a Bills defense that allows a ton of big plays from out of the backfield––and against whom Hall went for five receptions and 169 total yards back in Week 7.
Ameer Abdullah ($5,100)
The Raiders don’t run the ball particularly well but they do use their RBs in the passing game a decent amount. Abdullah has actually caught 12 passes over his last two starts, posting target shares of 17% and 20% in those two games. Further, he’s also working behind one of the worst lead-backs in the NFL, Alexander Mattison, which allows him to get some rushing attempts from time to time. In Week 16 vs the Jaguars, he was even able to get a couple of red zone touches, one of which he promptly turned into rushing a TD.
Whichever way you slice it, Abdullah is actually a big part of the Raiders offense at the moment and certainly usable for DFS as his price has only crept up a few hundred dollars over last week. With an easy matchup vs the Saints, who have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing RBs, Abdullah feels like a sneaky good value to use in core lineups this week.
Wide Receiver
Brian Thomas Jr. ($6,800)
A lot of the top WRs are banged up or in questionable spots this week which makes the sub-7K price tag on Brian Thomas Jr. even more appealing. The Jaguars/ number one wideout has now averaged an obscene 13 targets over his last three games and posted 100+ yards and a TD in back-to-back games. For the season, he’s now gone over 20.0 DK FPTS five times and gone over 30.0 DK FPTS in each of his last two games with Mac Jones at the helm.
The matchup with Tennessee doesn’t look great on paper as they’ve only allowed the fourth-most points per game to opposing WRs. However, they’ve had issues keeping bigger WRs out of the end zone all season and Thomas Jr. certainly will have a size advantage on both of their starting corners. There’s nothing here to suggest that Thomas won’t have another solid day and at under $7K he still looks too undervalued to think about fading.
Dontayvion Wicks ($3,900)
Wicks is in a nice upside spot this week. Christian Watson is out for Week 17 with a knee injury which is going to open up some targets for players like Wicks, who is coming off a game vs the Saints where he posted a 24% target share and was targeted seven times.
The matchup this week is also phenomenal for Wicks to post solid production. For the season, Minnesota has now allowed the most fantasy points per game to opposing WRs and gave up TDs to both DK Metcalf and Jaxon Smith-Njigba last week. In Week 4 of this season, Wicks posted a monster game going for 78 yards and two TDs vs this Vikings defense. It’s a good time to roll out the sub-4K WR in GPP lineups this week.
Tight End
Chig Okonkwo ($3,600)
Okonkwo’s been a fantasy stud of late, going for 17 catches on 21 targets over his last two games. Even prior to Mason Rudolph getting the start at QB, Okonkwo was starting to get a few more targets but since he took over his usage has skyrocketed. He’s posted target shares of 28% and 31% over the last two weeks and managed 19.1 fantasy points vs the Colts, despite not scoring a TD.
Despite the big couple of games, his price is still relatively flat over Week 16. He’s just $3,600 and facing a Jaguars team that is 27th in success rate vs the pass and has allowed the 7th most fantasy points to opposing TEs this season––including seven TDs.
Overall, Okonkwo’s in a great spot to finish strong and potentially get himself re-upped before the start of next season, given his contract runs out after 2025. For DFS, he’s a perfect upside option at TE for Week 17 for those using an expensive game stack like the TB-CAR one recommended above.
Defense/Special Teams
Packers D/ST ($2,700)
The Packers defense has been humming of late. They’ve scored 15 and 17 DK FPTS points respectively in each of their last two starts and averaged 2 turnovers and 5 sacks per game over that span.
They’re also likely to get healthier this week as CBs Corey Ballentine and potentially Jaire Alexander could both return for this game. Regardless, Green Bay’s defense has proven itself to be a top unit of late, and even against an elite receiving core like Minnesota have plenty of upside. QB Sam Darnold has been great this season but has also faced a relatively easy schedule of pass defenses of late. Darnold still has 11 INTs and Minnesota does allow the ninth-most sacks per game.
From a game theory perspective, I also love this spot for Green Bay’s D/ST in general. Many DFS players will be targeting this game for offensive purposes, but few will think of deploying either D/ST. The Packers are cheap, have solid upside, and will be low-owned making them a great leverage play for lineups not going overweight on offensive players from GB and MIN.
Be sure to set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: $2.25M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st]
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is wavegoodbye) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
