Now that most of the Christmas festivities have concluded, we’re back to our regularly scheduled programming and it starts with Thursday Night Football between the Seahawks and Bears. Chicago doesn’t have much to play for at this point with a 4-11 record but Seattle is just one game behind Los Angeles in the NFC West. The Seahawks are 3.5-point road favorites and the game total is set at O/U 43.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Who will be the first touchdown (TD) scorer? Both Kenneth Walker III (+370) and Zach Charbonnet (+390) lead in terms of odds but are dealing with injuries. One particular player stands out tonight––check out my top first touchdown scorer prop bet choice for Seahawks vs. Bears on Thursday Night Football below.
Seattle Seahawks at Chicago Bears
Jaxon-Smith Njigba First TD Scorer (+1000)
Seattle’s running back situation is too much of a headache to deal with, so I’m pivoting to Geno Smith’s favorite target, Smith-Njigba. It is worth noting that the Seahawks have not scored the first touchdown since Week 9 but the Bears have no idea how to score first or in the first quarter, averaging a league-worst 1.3 first-quarter points. Plus, its secondary has struggled a bit more than usual in recent games.
Smith-Njigba has found the end zone in three of the last five games and is coming off of back-to-back 12-target games. He has produced nearly all of his production while lining up in the slot and draws a favorable matchup against slot corner, Kyler Gordon. Per Next Gen Stats, Gordon owns a 5.2 target EPA, which ranks eighth-worst among slot cornerbacks with at least 175 coverage snaps. JSN has totaled 921 of his 1,089 yards and five of his six touchdowns from the slot this season.
He has scored the first touchdown just once this season and has nearly double the red zone targets than both DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett combined. The Bears field the third-best red zone defense but his slot matchup versus Gordon suggests this could be a spot where JSN can break the trends.
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