With Christmas Day this year falling in the middle of the week, the NFL scheduled four of its playoff teams to suit up on a Wednesday, which leaves an unusually dry matchup for the traditional Thursday marquee slot.
Instead of being blessed with an all-important battle for playoff positioning, we will have the honor of watching a sliding Seattle Seahawks team travel to the Windy City to take on the Chicago Bears, losers of nine straight.
Alas, NFL football is still NFL football, and the 8-7 Seahawks are still in the thick of the NFC playoff race if the Los Angeles Rams slip up on Saturday against the Arizona Cardinals. For the Bears, it offers another chance for rookie quarterback Caleb Williams — who hasn’t thrown an interception since Week 6 — to deliver under the bright lights of a nationally-televised showcase.
DraftKings is offering a DFS Showdown contest for tonight’s matchup. Let’s dive in.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.25M Thursday Night Showdown [$300K to 1st] (SEA @ CHI)
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SHOWDOWN STRATEGY
Captain’s Picks
Caleb Williams ($14,400 CP) – Jayden Daniels and Bo Nix have stolen most of the attention among rookie signal-callers, and for good reason; Daniels has led the Washington Commanders to a 10-5 record and an almost-guaranteed playoff berth, while Nix and the Denver Broncos are close to clinching a playoff spot of their own. But strip away the expectations and the team records, and Williams has been just as good as Nix. A 3,271-yard, 19-touchdown, five-interception rookie season is far from disappointing.
As you might expect from a raw rookie, Williams has gotten better as the season has gone on. In his last five games, he has completed 62.8% of his passes for 1,255 yards, 10 touchdowns, no interceptions, and a 102.0 passer rating — play that would make him the seventh-best quarterback in the league across the full season. He still takes too many sacks and fumbles too much, but the flashes of brilliance that made him arguably the most highly-touted college prospect since Andrew Luck in 2012 have been there. Chicago lost all five games, but one of its defeats was due to historic clock mismanagement by Matt Eberflus that cost him his job.
Williams should have no trouble performing against a Seahawks defense that is extremely average in all aspects of football. Seattle has allowed the 13th-highest completion percentage, 16th-most yards, ninth-most touchdowns, and 15th-most FPTS to opposing quarterbacks. With an almost-completely healthy Bears offense around him, Williams should continue his strong form tonight.
Zach Charbonnet ($12,600 CP) – The second-year back from UCLA was fairly productive as a rookie in 2023 and has followed it up with a better sophomore campaign. Operating in primarily a time-sharing role with Kenneth Walker III, Charbonnet has taken 106 carries for 453 yards and eight scores while adding 39 catches, 289 yards, and another score through the air. Pro Football Focus grades him as the 21st best running back in football.
This week presents a perfect opportunity for Charbonnet to thrive, as Walker will miss the game with an ankle injury. Charbonnet has already garnered four starts this season in the games that Walker has missed, and he has taken full advantage, racking up 317 yards on 5.1 yards per carry and finding the end zone six times. In his starts, he is averaging 23.8 FPTS per game.
Meanwhile, Chicago’s porous defense will provide Charbonnet with an opportunity to thrive. The Bears have allowed opposing ball-carriers to rack up 2,012 yards, the seventh-most in football, on 4.7 yards per carry, the eighth-best efficiency. Chicago has also struggled to keep opposing backs out of the end zone, allowing 18 rushing touchdowns, more than all but eight teams. Overall, the Bears have allowed the third-most FPTS to running backs, making Charbonnet an easy selection as captain.
FLEX Plays
Keenan Allen ($9,800) – Chicago has had a pretty egalitarian offense this season, with each of Allen, D.J. Moore, and rookie Rome Odunze racking up over 650 receiving yards and garnering a 20% target share. Of the three, Allen’s overall target share (27.8%) is the highest, and his end zone target share (18.3%) slightly trails Odunze. Factor in the fact that Allen has caught seven touchdown passes this season compared to Moore’s five and Odunze’s three and he starts to stand out as the Bears’ WR1.
Plus, Allen is peaking at the right time. Williams targeted him 13 times in each of the past two games, and he was able to total 15 catches for 223 yards and two scores. I like him to succeed against a Seattle defense whose secondary talent drops off significantly after nickelback Devon Witherspoon and former Pro Bowler Riq Woolen. By traditional counting statistics, the Seahawks have a very average defense, but by FPTS, they allow the 10th-most to opposing wideouts, making Allen a smart play.
Noah Fant ($3,600) – For a value play, I like Fant’s potential against a Bears defense that has been vulnerable against opposing tight ends.
Fant’s fantasy output has been somewhat stifled this season by the fact that he hasn’t found the end zone, but he has still been a consistent feature in the Seattle offense, garnering at least three targets in all but one game this season. Fant also has reliable hands, having caught 73.6% of quarterback Geno Smith’s passes in his direction. The Seahawks’ most recent game was one of his best, as he caught three passes for 50 yards.
Strangely enough, the Bears have been one of the best teams at defending wide receivers — allowing the sixth-fewest fantasy points to them — and among the worst against opposing tight ends, allowing the seventh-most fantasy points to tight ends. A quick look at the depth chart explains why. Chicago has a lot of depth at the cornerback position, but a spate of injuries has left it thin in both safeties and linebackers.
Fades
Geno Smith ($9,400) – Smith’s comeback has been one of the best stories in the NFL across the past few seasons. He was a former second-round pick from West Virginia who had a terrible two-year stint as the New York Jets’ starter, completing less than 60% of his passes and throwing more interceptions than touchdowns before fading into NFL obscurity.
Then, in 2022, Russell Wilson left Seattle and the Seahawks handed the reins over to Smith, who led the league in completion percentage, tossed 30 touchdown passes and only 11 interceptions, and finished ninth in MVP voting. He signed a three-year, $75 million extension the following offseason and followed it up in 2023 with another Pro Bowl-worthy performance. But in the second season of his big-money deal, the 34-year-old is showing signs of his age.
He’s still completing more than 70% of his passes — a figure that ranks fourth in the NFL — but he’s doing it more conservatively than ever, averaging his fewest air yards per attempt (6.82) since his stint with the Jets. He’s also had a major interception problem, throwing 15, which is tied with Baker Mayfield for the second-most in football, one behind the recently ousted Kirk Cousins. The Seahawks might’ve upset the 12-2 Minnesota Vikings in Week 16 if not for two Smith interceptions deep in his own territory.
Meanwhile, despite the Bears allowing 7.9 yards per attempt to opposing quarterbacks, they’ve actually been pretty good overall. Chicago has been challenged only 455 times this season, and it allows only a 64% completion percentage, both top-ten ranks in football. The Bears have also been great at protecting the end zone, allowing only 17 touchdowns, the fourth-fewest in the league. Since they’re very stout through the air and very exploitable against the run, expect head coach Mike Macdonald to rely more on Charbonnet and less on Smith.
THE OUTCOME
Neither of these teams are particularly good, but prior to its two recent losses against Green Bay and Minnesota — both solid playoff teams — the Seahawks had won four games in a row, and they have a lot to play for, with the NFC West title still on the line.
Meanwhile, Chicago had been playing competitive football in the middle of the season, with impressive one-possession losses to playoff teams, but its games have been far uglier recently, even with Williams’ improved play. The Bears have lost by a combined 60 points in their last three games, and Chicago fans have their eyes on the top of the 2025 NFL draft.
Final Score: Seattle 27, Chicago 17
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $200K Showdown Special [$50K to 1st] (KC @ PIT)
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All views expressed are my own. I am a promoter at DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
