These are my picks to win every Week 17 NFL game straight up, tiered by confidence level and ranked within each tier. You can bet on any of these games at DraftKings Sportsbook.
NFL Week 17 Confidence Picks
High Confidence
Bills over Jets- The Bills are on their way to securing the No. 2 seed in the AFC and they should be able to take care of the Jets with ease. Josh Allen and some other Bills are dealing with injuries but they should come into this game with a run-heavy approach and control the flow of the game. The Jets’ defense ranks 24th in EPA/rush and 29th in rushing success rate. This should be a big game for James Cook and Buffalo should cruise to a victory.
Colts over Giants- The Colts are in the midst of the AFC Wild-Card race and they are desperate for a win. Meanwhile, the Giants’ season has been a total disaster. Drew Lock is starting at quarterback and he has been a bottom-five quarterback in the league this season out of 50 qualified quarterbacks. The Colts’ defense should shut down the Giants, allowing the Colts to just run the ball and control this game.
Eagles over Cowboys- The Eagles are still in contention for the No. 1 seed in the NFC so they have something to play for here. The Cowboys are playing better but the Eagles ultimately have too much talent and should win this game. Their defense is playing at a really high level and should be able to slow down the Cowboys’ offense, allowing Saquon Barkley to control the clock by moving the ball on the ground.
Buccaneers over Panthers- The Buccaneers are fighting for the NFC South divisional title these last two weeks and should put forward their best effort. They have a top-five defense, measured by EPA/play, over the past month and should be able to limit what the Panthers can do offensively. The Panthers’ run defense has a lot of issues and the Bucs should be able to move the ball effectively on the ground with Bucky Irving.
Dolphins over Browns- The Dolphins are also in the heat of the AFC Wild-Card race and need this win. The Browns’ season has been a mess and is only getting worse as time goes on. Miami should be able to move the ball against the Browns through the air and get points on the board. Meanwhile, the Browns’ offense ranks dead last in EPA/dropback and will really struggle to move the ball with DTR at quarterback.
Medium Confidence
Ravens over Texans- The Ravens are looking to win back the AFC North over these last two weeks and they likely need to win both of their games to do so. Their defense has really improved over the past few weeks and they are starting to look like a more complete team. Meanwhile, the Texans have been decimated by injuries over the past few weeks on both sides of the ball. They are just too worn down to beat the Ravens in this spot where they will be desperate to get the win.
Rams over Cardinals- The Rams and Cardinals are both still alive in the wild NFC West divisional race. However, the Rams are playing much better at the moment. Their offense has been really good since Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua got healthy and they should be able to throw on the Cardinals. Meanwhile, the Cardinals have been dealing with injuries and Kyler Murray’s play has declined in recent weeks. The Rams should have enough to pick up this win.
Chargers over Patriots- The Chargers need a win to secure their spot in the playoffs. The Patriots are looking to play spoiler but they have struggled to find ways to win games. New England has lost five games in a row and the Chargers should make it six here. The offense just doesn’t have enough firepower and the defense should struggle to stop the Chargers.
Commanders over Falcons- The Commanders are looking to improve to secure a playoff berth with a win over the Falcons. Their offense has been one of the best in the league this season and among qualified quarterbacks, Jayden Daniels ranks fifth in EPA+CPOE composite this season. The Commanders should be able to outscore the Falcons in what is just Michael Penix’s second career start.
Bengals over Broncos- The Bengals are still alive in the AFC Wild-Card race and the Broncos are one of the teams that stand in their way, so this is the definition of a must-win. Cincinnati is a top-five offense in the league by EPA/play this season and it should be able to score on the Denver defense that shuts so many other teams down. Bo Nix is good in games where Denver can just control a low-scoring battle but I don’t think he’ll be able to outscore Joe Burrow in a shootout.
Seahawks over Bears- The Bears are a disaster at the moment. They have lost nine straight games and they are really bad on both sides of the ball. The defense has slowly gotten worse as the season has progressed and their offensive line injuries have made their offensive problems even worse. The Seahawks are still fighting for their playoff lives and should have too much on both sides of the ball for Chicago.
Coin-Flip Games
Lions over 49ers- The Lions need a win here to stay atop the NFC North and the NFC as a whole. It should be a close game between these two teams but ultimately, the Lions should have enough to pull out the win. They are still the second-best team in the NFL by DVOA and are elite on both sides of the ball.
Chiefs over Steelers- The Chiefs take on the Steelers on Christmas Day and it should be a great game. The Chiefs’ defense is playing at a really high level and should be able to slow down the Steelers. However, the reason I am backing the Chiefs is because they have found ways to win these games over and over again this season. They are masterful at winning these tight one-possession games and they should be able to do so again on Christmas.
Raiders over Saints- These are two teams that are struggling mightily but the Raiders have been a bit more competitive. Aidan O’Connell is playing decent football and the Raiders still have a couple of skill-position players that are dangerous. The Saints’ offense has been completely decimated by injuries and Spencer Rattler has been forced to try to run this offense with all backups. The Raiders should find a way to score one or two touchdowns where the Saints don’t.
Packers over Vikings- This is one of the best games of the week between two NFC North teams looking to pull ahead of each other and the other teams atop the conference. The Packers seem to have momentum on their side at the moment. They have one of the best offenses in the league and they rank third in the NFL in DVOA. Green Bay also has an elite defense over the past month and should be able to slow down Sam Darnold.
Jaguars over Titans- These are two of the worst teams in the league who have both found ways to lose games all season. This game is nearly impossible to pick but the Jaguars have been slightly more competitive in recent weeks. Mac Jones is starting to figure out the offense a bit and the Jaguars have some life running the ball. Meanwhile, the Titans have been a disaster in every area so I am backing the Jaguars here.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and customer (my username is blakekrass) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and cannot access any non-public information.
