Week 17 of the NFL season is off to an early start. The league kicked off with a pair of Christmas Day matchups as the Kansas City Chiefs beat the Pittsburgh Steelers before the Houston Texans faced off with the Baltimore Ravens.
The week will continue with the usual Thursday Night Football matchup as the Seattle Seahawks and Chicago Bears face off. Seattle is one game behind the Los Angeles Rams in the NFC West and will need help to get into the playoffs. Chicago has failed to reach their goals for the season with their playoff hopes dashed much earlier than hoped, but they’re still trying to find positive takeaways to end the year. Playing spoiler to the Seahawks would certainly fit this description.
The Seahawks enter this game as four-point favorites in the matchup and -218 on the Moneyline. The Bears are +180 underdogs on the Moneyline via DraftKings Sportsbook and the game total is set at 42.5 points. With the stage set, here are my favorite prop bets for the Thursday night thriller.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba Over 69.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
The torch seems to have passed from DK Metcalf to Jaxon Smith-Njigba for the top wide receiver title in the Seahawks’ offense. The Ohio State product has tallied 93 receptions this season for 1,089 yards and six touchdowns. He leads the Seahawks in each of these categories and has been especially impressive in recent weeks.
Week 8 marks the last time Jaxon Smith-Njigba was held below 68 receiving yards in a game. Across the past seven games, he has produced receiving totals of 180, 110, 77, 74, 82, 83, and 95 yards. He has been targeted at least four times in each of these games and recorded 10+ targets in six contests this season, including each of the past two weeks. He has logged at least six catches in seven of the eight games and is trusted to run a versatile route tree.
Looking at the Bears defense, they rank 13th in points allowed and 26th in yardage given up this season. Chicago also ranks 23rd in passing yards allowed and 31st in net yards per pass attempt. The Bears’ defense got shredded by the Lions last week, and while the Seahawks are not quite the same caliber of offense, Seattle can exploit the same weaknesses. Smith-Njigba has recorded over 69.5 yards in seven consecutive games leading into this matchup and the Bears are not equipped to challenge this.
D.K. Metcalf Under 4.5 Receptions (-130)
On the opposite side of the passing attack sits DK Metcalf. He falls on the other end of the spectrum, with Smith-Njigba’s growing opportunity taking away targets. So far this season, the 27-year-old has tallied 60 receptions for 897 yards and four touchdowns.
On the season overall, Metcalf has been held under 4.5 receptions in 10-of-13 games. He has not recorded over 4.5 receptions since Week 10 when he had seven receptions for 70 yards. This is just his second career matchup with Chicago, and Metcalf was limited to two receptions in the first game.
While Metcalf will not be kept fully under control, the 4.5 receptions line is too high based on what has been seen from him this season. The Ole Miss product has taken a backseat in the offense and there are no signs of this changing. Chicago has proven capable of self-destructing any given week and if this game gets out of control, expect the Seahawks to be completely content keeping the ball on the ground and running out the clock. One way or another, count on Metcalf to be held under 4.5 receptions in the Thursday Night Football matchup.
Caleb Williams Over 215.5 Passing Yards (-115)
While all team goals are out the window this year, the Chicago Bears are heavily invested in getting Caleb Williams on the proper developmental path. The first-overall pick has had some ups and downs in his rookie year with organizational issues distracting from his play far too often.
Looking at his on-field production, Williams has completed 62.2% of his pass attempts this season for 3,271 yards, 19 touchdowns, and five interceptions. He has thrown for an average of 218.1 passing yards per game and gone over 215.5 passing yards in seven of the 15 games this year. He also has reached this number in four of the past six games, including 334 passing yards last week.
This Seahawks defense does not carry the same level of impact they once did. Seattle ranks 12th in points allowed, 17th in yards given up, 16th in passing yards allowed, and 20th in passing touchdowns conceded. Expect the Bears to continue focusing on Caleb Williams’ development and have a strong game plan in play for him. His level of growth and production matter far more than the results at this stage of the season, so expect the Bears to give him plenty of opportunity to throw for over 215.5 passing yards.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba Anytime TD (+180)
In addition to the yardage output that Jaxon Smith-Njigba has produced in recent games, he has become a much more dangerous weapon around the end zone. JSN has tallied six receiving touchdowns on the season with each coming in Week 5 and beyond. He is coming off eight receptions on 12 targets, plus a touchdown just last week. He has made it into the end zone in four of the past seven games, including two touchdowns against the Rams.
Smith-Njigba has been targeted 12 times in back-to-back weeks and is cementing his spot as the top wide receiver in the Seattle offense. He has played 88% of snaps or greater in each of the past three weeks, including a snap count high as 97%. He is capable of breaking free for a big-play touchdown, but also has grown into more of a threat around the red zone than was shown across his four touchdown receptions last year.
As the Seahawks fight for their playoff lives, expect Jaxon Smith-Njigba to be heavily involved in the offense and get a few opportunities for a touchdown. The Bears have a vulnerable defense and quarterback Geno Smith is plenty comfortable letting it fly, so expect Smith-Njigba to be the beneficiary of this approach. Taking a chance on the +180 odds is great value on a team that has gotten some inconsistent output from their run game.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is seanbarnard) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
