Super Bowl contenders go head-to-head when the 14-1 Chiefs visit the 10-5 Steelers. The over/under is set at 43.5 points, with the away team entering the contest as modest three-point favorites. It might be a holiday, but don’t expect either of these defenses to be in the giving spirit; both units rank within the top ten in points allowed this season. Still, Kansas CIty has one thing no other team does: Patrick Mahomes. In a game that could clinch the number one seed in the AFC, will the two-time MVP deliver a Christmas day present for bettors?
Best Patrick Mahomes bet on DraftKings Sportsbook
The Chiefs might have just one loss, but it hasn’t always been pretty. Kansas City’s offense hasn’t been firing on all cylinders, ranking just 11th in total points scored (356) and 13th in total yardage (5,083). However, a passing attack hampered by several notable injuries has shown signs of life recently. Over his last five outings, Mahomes has thrown for an average of 240.8 yards to go along with eight total touchdowns and zero interceptions.
The Chiefs have passed the ball more in recent weeks, averaging 39.3 attempts over their last three games. That number, up from a season-long average of 36.3, is a direct result of an inability to run the ball. Through 15 contests, Kansas City’s backfield has produced the seventh-lowest yards per rush attempt (4.0). That doesn’t bode well against a Steelers defense that ranks seventh in that category, giving up 4.2 yards per rush.
Mahomes might not have to be a superhero in this one, but he should take advantage of a Pittsburgh secondary that has looked vulnerable. This season, the Steel Curtain has given up the 13th-most passing yards per game (220.7).
A fearsome pass rush led by T.J. Watt could pose problems, but a few statistics suggest they might not make much of a difference. According to the NFL’s Next Gen Stats, Pittsburgh’s defense ranks just 20th in average time to throw under pressure (2.73 seconds). Mahomes has excelled at getting the ball out quickly; last week against Houston, he finished 17 for 19 with 155 yards and a touchdown on throws under 2.5 seconds. In short, a defense that doesn’t get to the quarterback quickly won’t have many opportunities to disrupt an elite passer.
Betting on Mahomes to go over his passing total depends on two factors: the Steelers keep things close and Kansas City’s run game struggles. After looking over some of the trends for both teams, I’d feel comfortable banking on the NFL’s best player in this one.
The Play: Patrick Mahomes over 253.5 passing yards (-115)
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