For some, today will mark the official start of the NBA season as the league steps to center stage for a Christmas Day slate. Five matchups are tipping off throughout the day with each game bringing a notable matchup or storyline.
Starting at noon EST, Victor Wembanyama is taking on the New York Knicks at Madison Square Garden. The second matchup of the day will take place between the Minnesota Timberwolves and Dallas Mavericks in a rematch of last year’s Western Conference Finals. Next, the Boston Celtics will host the Philadelphia 76ers, who are finally showing some signs of life on the season—winning seven of their past ten. Later in the night on the West Coast, the Golden State Warriors will host the Los Angeles Lakers for the first time this season before the Phoenix Suns take on the Denver Nuggets in the second consecutive matchup between these two teams.
You can check out each matchup and all prop bets on DraftKings Sportsbook. Here are my favorite prop bets in each matchup on the holiday slate.
Klay Thompson Over 2.5 Made Three-Pointers (-130)
The Dallas Mavericks and Minnesota Timberwolves will face off in a rematch of last year’s Western Conference Finals. Both teams have gone through some notable roster changes this offseason. The most notable addition for the Mavericks has been four-time NBA Champion Klay Thompson.
After so much success in Golden State, the five-time all-star is still fully finding his footing with his new squad. Thompson is averaging 14.4 points, 3.4 rebounds, and 1.8 assists per game. He is attempting 7.9 three-point attempts per game and connecting at a 39.1% rate on the season. This comes out to an average of 3.1 made three-pointers per game, which is still his lowest output since the 2018-19 season. Thompson has made over 2.5 three-pointers in 15 of the 25 games this season.
Looking at this matchup, the Timberwolves still lean on their defensive identity. This season they rank fourth in opponents’ points per game, fifth in defensive efficiency, ninth in opponent field goal percentage, and sixth in opponents’ three-point percentage. Even still, these are the types of big games that Thompson was brought in to provide a boost to this Dallas team. He has 158 games of playoff experience and this will make his 10th career Christmas game. Thompson has made over 2.5 three-pointers in back-to-back games and six of his past seven games leading into this matchup. Expect Thompson to be ready to capitalize on his catch-and-shoot opportunities and knock down at least three perimeter shots today.
Joel Embiid Over 25.5 Points (-120)
It has been a season from hell for Joel Embiid thus far. With him finally getting past his injury issues and suspension, Embiid was most recently ejected from the previous matchup for getting two consecutive technicals after arguing a charge call. When he has been on the floor, which has been for just eight games, Embiid is averaging just 20.6 points, 6.8 rebounds, and 4.1 assists per game. Each of these numbers falls well below the lofty bar of expectations for the former NBA MVP.
The only way to change the frustrating start to the season is to perform better on the floor. Even with the addition of Paul George and the continued ascension of Tyrese Maxey, the Sixers will only go as Joel Embiid will take them. While the numbers are ugly, there have been some positive eye test takeaways from Embiid in recent games. The seven-time all-star has noticeably slimmed down and looks to be moving like himself on the floor. Excluding the ejection on Monday which limited him to just 14:22 of game time, Embiid had scored 31 or more points in three of the previous four games.
There is plenty of bad blood throughout the years between the Sixers and Celtics which should add some intensity to the matchup. The defending champions look right in line for being title contenders again this season. In contrast, the Sixers have stumbled out of the gates and are searching for a signature victory as they start to build momentum. This is the type of opportunity they are searching for, and expect Embiid and the Sixers to leave it all on the line. Embiid has averaged over 25.5 points in each of the past four seasons and went over this number in 35 of the 39 games he played last year. Expect him to lead the scoring charge and record over 25.5 points tonight as he and the Sixers attempt to return to normalcy. For the sake of this article, we will stick to this number, but there also is some value in the alternate lines such as 30+ points at +170 odds.
Dennis Schroder Over 16.5 Points & Assists (-120)
The Golden State Warriors are desperately trying to keep the championship window open around Steph Curry. In their latest effort, they made a trade for Nets’ guard Dennis Schroder to provide some necessary offensive support. Across the 23 games he spent with the Nets, Schroder averaged 18.4 points and 6.6 assists. He recorded over 16.5 combined points and assists in 19 of the 23 games.
He has yet to fully settle in with Golden State thus far. Schroeder has suited up for just three games with the Warriors and has not had his statistical breakout just yet. Across these three games, he is averaging just 7.7 points and 3.7 assists but Schroeder has played 21:56 or more minutes in each game. The German guard also has shot an uncharacteristic 27.6% from the floor and 9.1% on three-point attempts in this limited sample size.
As he finally starts to settle in with his new team, expect a better performance from Schroder tonight. The Warriors brought him in to fill a set role and he has proven to be capable of playing at a much higher level than he has shown in the first three games. The Lakers rank 18th in opponents’ points allowed and 21st in defensive efficiency. Steph Curry has struggled of late and has had too much on his plate offensively for stretches this season. Expect Schroder to be the guy to step up and change this and for the new addition to record over 16.5 points and assists as he settles in and provides some necessary offensive relief.
Kevin Durant Over 2.5 Made Three-Pointers (-125)
This will mark the second consecutive matchup between these two teams with the Denver Nuggets producing a blowout victory on Monday. Kevin Durant finished with 23 points in this matchup but was limited to just 15 shot attempts. Phoenix was also held to just 11 points scored in the fourth quarter of this matchup which resulted in a 117-90 loss.
The Suns will continue to be without Devin Booker as he recovers from his groin injury. This will continue to put more responsibility on Durant’s plate and the four-time scoring champ is more than capable of delivering in these opportunities. Across the 18 games he has played this year, Durant is averaging 27.1 points, 6.7 rebounds, and 3.8 assists. The 14-time all-star is shooting 42.7% from beyond the three-point arc while launching 6.1 long-range shots per game. Across the 11 games in his career he has played on Christman, Durant has averaged 28.6 points, 7.5 rebounds, and 4.8 assists while producing 51/41/87 shooting splits.
Durant has made over 2.5 three-pointers in nine of the 18 games this season. Expect even more offensive opportunities as the team is without the 25.1 points per game and 7.7 three-point attempts that Devin Booker typically accounts for. In addition, Denver ranks 23rd in opponents’ points per game, 13th in opponents’ three-point percentage, and 25th in opponents’ three-point attempts. Expect Durant to be aggressive in this matchup and perform at his best with the bright lights of the Christmas matchup on him. Count on him to record over 2.5 made three-pointers for the 10th time this season and lead the Suns’ offensive attack tonight.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is seanbarnard) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
