The second game of the NFL’s Christmas slate is a matchup between the 10-5 Ravens and 9-6 Texans. Both teams have already clinched the playoffs but the Ravens are tied with the Steelers atop the AFC North division and will be hard-pressed to pick up a win in Houston. Baltimore is a 5.5-point favorite and the game total is set at 46.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook.
The injury reports for both teams will make the choice for the first touchdown (TD) scorer a bit more difficult but this game is still full of highly-talented skill players. Derrick Henry (+400) and Joe Mixon (+550) unsurprisingly lead in terms of odds but I have my eyes on one player. See my favorite first touchdown (TD) scorer prop bet pick for Ravens vs. Texans below.
Baltimore Ravens at Houston Texans
Nico Collins First TD Scorer (+1000)
C.J. Stroud has lost both Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell to season-ending injuries, which leaves Collins, who has been his go-to target all season long. Collins has scored all six of his touchdowns while playing at home and draws a favorable matchup against a leaky Ravens secondary that has allowed the fourth-most receiving yards to opposing wide receivers this season.
He has also scored the first touchdown for Houston in two games this season. Baltimore has improved over the last few weeks defensively but is still susceptible to big plays, which is Collins’ bread and butter. The Ravens’ secondary ranks third in 20+ yard receptions allowed and 25th in EPA per dropback. I understand the concern for Baltimore blanketing Collins all game and forcing Stroud to spread the ball around but its defense has mightily struggled to limit opposing alpha WR1’s this season. Although it isn’t necessarily his forte, Collins also leads the team in red zone targets and receptions, and could take advantage in that department, too.
Let’s hope the game’s script opens with a 75-yard touchdown connection between Stroud and Collins on Houston’s opening drive, and we don’t even need to sweat it out.
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