I’m still having a bit of a hard time wrapping my head around this whole “NFL games on a Wednesday” thing, but not nearly as hard a time as I’ve had wrapping my family’s Christmas presents. Ha! Little holiday humor for you there. T’is the season and so-forth.
We’ve got a pair of huge AFC contests on December 25, each with massive ramifications for the playoffs. Let’s dive in and break down everything you’ll need to know.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1M Christmas Special [$200K to 1st] (Wed)
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QUARTERBACK
Value
C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans vs. Baltimore Ravens, $6,000 – Let’s dispel something right off the jump: The Ravens’ secondary isn’t terrible. Yes, the unit has allowed the fourth-most FPTS per game to opposing QBs this season, yet Baltimore’s only allowing 5.5 yards per opponent pass attempt in its last three contests. Still, this projects to be the higher scoring game on Christmas, and if Lamar Jackson ($8,000) is going to put up points, Stroud will have to follow suit to keep things competitive. The former second-overall pick enters Week 17 ranking 12th in the NFL in passing yards (3,492) and 13th in passing touchdowns (19). He’s shown that he possesses a decent fantasy ceiling and his ownership should be much, much lower than Jackson’s.
RUNNING BACK
Stud
Derrick Henry, Baltimore Ravens at Houston Texans, $8,200 – Don’t overthink this one. Henry has been an absolute workhorse for the Ravens in 2024. The veteran ranks second in the league in rushing yards (1,636) and rushing touchdowns (13), while also sitting third in PPR fantasy points (283.8) and fourth in PPR points per snap (0.52) among qualified running backs. Despite rushing for over 140 yards twice in Baltimore’s past four games, Henry hasn’t found the end zone since all the way back in Week 11. Feels like that’s due to normalize, right?
Value
Kareem Hunt, Kansas City Chiefs at Pittsburgh Steelers, $5,200 – For a month I’ve waited for Isiah Pacheco ($5,700) to regain the “bell cow” role he had prior to his injury. It’s time to accept that it’s just not going to happen. Heck, Hunt was the more involved back in Week 16’s victory over the Texans. Hunt logged a 43.2% snap share — his highest since Pacheco returned back in Week 13. He also just straight up out-snapped Pacheco 32-to-26, seeing three red zone carries to his teammate’s goose egg. Not shockingly, that’s why Hunt found the end zone and registered 15.9 FPTS. If Hunt’s the goal line back, he shouldn’t be cheaper than Pacheco. It’s that simple.
WIDE RECEIVER
Stud
Xavier Worthy, Kansas City Chiefs at Pittsburgh Steelers, $5,600 – Despite briefly leaving the field due to ankle issue, Worthy was far and away the Chiefs No. 1 receiver in Week 16’s victory over Houston, logging a 79.7% snap share and seeing 11 targets for the second straight contest. For context, no other Kansas City wideout saw even a 53% snap rate on Saturday. There’s a chance that Hollywood Brown ($4,500) sees his role expand slightly in his second game back in action, yet that should affect Worthy too much. I’m expecting big things from the speedy rookie in a matchup with an injury-plagued Steelers’ secondary.
Value
Robert Woods, Houston Texans vs. Baltimore Ravens, $3,800 – When was the last time ol’ Bobby Trees was fantasy relevant? 2022? Well, with Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell sidelined, the Texans are going to need Woods to step-up. The veteran played 34 snaps in Saturday’s loss to the Chiefs — the second-most of any Houston wideout — setting new season-highs for targets (6) and receptions (3). I wouldn’t be expecting a huge performance from the 32-year-old, but he’ll be involved by necessity and the Ravens have surrendered the second-most FPTS to opposing WRs. Woods is also dirt cheap. That helps.
TIGHT END
Value
Dalton Schultz, Houston Texans vs. Baltimore Ravens, $4,100 – For as much as the aforementioned Woods will need to increase his production to help the Texans overcome the loss of Dell, it’s pretty clear that Schultz is now Houston’s No. 2 weapon in the passing attack, behind only Nico Collins ($8,300). With Dell limited to 30 snaps in Week 16, Schultz tied his season-high in both targets (8) and receptions (5). He’d finish with 15.5 FPTS. Schultz only being the third-most expensive TE on a two-game slate feels like an obvious buying window. He also pairs nicely with Stroud in a mini-stack.
D/ST
Value
Steelers D/ST vs. Kansas City Chiefs, $2,800 – For as much as using the Steelers defense against the Chiefs is a matter of leveraging ownership, it can not be overstated how good a unit this has been in 2024. Pittsburgh has forced a turnover on 17.4% of opponents’ drives — the highest mark in the NFL. The Steelers also have a 22.8% pressure rate, which is the second-highest mark of the four defenses taking the field on Wednesday. Kansas City hasn’t scored more than 30 points in a game this season. You don’t have to fear them like we did three years ago.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1M Christmas Special [$200K to 1st] (Wed)
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
