Of the five-game Christmas Day slate, arguably none has bigger playoff implications than the rematch of last year’s Western Conference Finals.
Back in May, the Dallas Mavericks came out on top, ousting the upstart Minnesota Timberwolves in five games. This season, based on current form, has been much of the same; Dallas has won eight of its last 10 games to climb to 19-10, good for fourth place in the Western Conference, while the Timberwolves have lost their last three games and sit in 10th.
The Mavericks have the second-shortest odds to win the Western Conference, and it’s not hard to see why. Luka Dončić is one of four players with a realistic claim as the league’s best player, and Kyrie Irving has a real case as its best second option. This season, Irving is averaging 23.4 points, 4.6 rebounds, and 5.2 assists per game while shooting 45.1% from beyond the arc, which ranks ninth among 168 players who have played at least 20 games and attempted at least three three-pointers per game.
On DraftKings Sportsbook, Dallas (-205) is a clear favorite and the point total is set to 221. Below, I’ve highlighted my favorite prop bets centered around Uncle Drew.
Best Kyrie Irving Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Kyrie Irving U20.5 Points (-105)
Although the Timberwolves’ defense has let them down during the team’s current three-game skid — conceding a combined 363 points to the New York Knicks, Golden State Warriors, and Atlanta Hawks — it is still one of the strongest units in the league. Over the last ten games, Minnesota’s defensive rating is still a stifling 101.2 points per 100 possessions, a number that would have led the league every season since 2015-16.
Irving’s stats will be further depressed by the fact that Minnesota’s offense plays at the seventh-slowest pace in the league, averaging just 98 possessions per game so far. For the season, the Timberwolves allow the fourth-fewest points, eighth-fewest rebounds, and seventh-fewest assists per game, partially owing to the strong perimeter defense of Anthony Edwards and Jaden McDaniels and the post presence of four-time Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert. Edwards, McDaniels, and Gobert all rank as top-30 defenders in the league by defensive win shares.
They also have recent history of clamping up small, ball-dominant point guards: although Trae Young and Stephen Curry had good performances against Minnesota in the last two games, the Timberwolves held Knicks All-Star point guard Jalen Brunson to just 14 points on December 19.
Meanwhile, Irving has scored 20 or fewer points in nine of his 26 starts so far this season, two of which have come in his last four games. Dončić is starting to find his groove after a slow start to the season and will have had another two days to recover from the heel contusion that cost him two games last week. With Dallas’ option A back in the lineup, I don’t think Irving’s usage will be quite high enough to put up a huge performance on Wednesday.
Kyrie Irving O1.5 Steals (+170)
One of Minnesota’s weaknesses is its propensity to turn the ball over. The Timberwolves cough the ball up 16.0 times per game, the ninth-worst figure in the league and worse than only three teams that sit at .500 or better. Although the individual leap that he has taken this year is impressive, Edwards’ 3.1 turnovers per game rank 22nd in the NBA.
Irving is far from an elite defender, but the quick hands that have made him arguably the best ball-handler in NBA history come into play on the less glamorous side of the ball too. He is averaging 1.2 steals per game this season and has never averaged fewer than 1.0 across a full season in his entire 14-year career. Irving ranks 15th among regular rotation players with 3.0 deflections per game this season, and he has notched at least two steals three times in his past eight games.
The Crown Is Yours: Sign up for DraftKings and experience the ultimate host for games and betting experiences!
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook, lines and odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
