Green Bay is heavily favored vs. New Orleans on MNF, so it’s not surprising to see the direction in which the predictions for Packers vs. Saints have gone.
Let’s get into those numbers and predictions by breaking down the moneyline, spread and game total betting splits for Packers vs. Saints. Following that, you’ll find some of the betable streaks that are active for this MNF matchup.
Game splits
Moneyline
As -950 favorites, the Packers have seen 97% of this game’s moneyline bets. Those predictions have accounted for 95% of Packers vs. Saints’ moneyline handle, so there isn’t a sharp lean toward Green Bay. But with the odds being so short, that’s not entirely a surprise.
Regardless, the small amount of bets that’ve been made in favor of the Saints winning straight up seem to be sizable positions, which usually indicates some level of sharp money.
Spread
Despite being two-touchdown favorites, bettors still seem to think the Packers can cover vs. the Saints. Sixty-seven percent of the spread bets have been cast in the Packers’ direction. Furthermore, those bets have accounted for 77% of the handle, indicating this public play is also sharp.
This spread opened at 13-even, dipped to 12.5, then climbed to 14.5 before fluctuating between that mark and 14-even. The move from 13 to 14 is important because that one point is the difference between two touchdowns and two PATs covering vs. two touchdowns, a PAT and 2-point conversion being required (along with other, less cut-and-dried variations).
Regardless, the spread’s movement is in line with the betting splits.
Total
This MNF total opened at 41.5, which is the lowest it’s gotten to. It’s not gone higher than the current 42.5 mark, but there’s been quite a bit of fluctuation in between.
Most importantly, the total being higher than its opening mark fits with the betting splits. The over has seen 88% of the game-total handle on 68% of the game-total bets. Popular play with a sharp lean.
Trends to note
To close things out, here are a few trends to consider before making your Packers vs. Saints predictions:
- The Packers have won the last eight games in which they were the favorite. They also scored the first touchdown in each of those games.
- The Packers have not covered in any of the last six games that they were favored vs. the NFC South.
- Josh Jacobs scored a touchdown in each of the last six games that the Packers were favored. He also logged 17-plus receiving yards in each of his last five MNF games. (Receiving yards O/U is 15.5.)
- The Packers won the first quarter in each of the prior five games that they were favored vs. another NFC team.
- Romeo Doubs has 49-plus receiving yards in each of his last four games that the Packers were favored following a win. (Receiving yards O/U is 37.5.)
- Cedrick Wilson has 18-plus receiving yards in each of the last four games that his team was coming off a loss. (Receiving yards O/U is 7.5.)
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
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