Unabated is an industry leader in real-time betting data and profitable sports betting tools. For the NBA season, they created the industry’s first-ever Conditional Projections. Every day, the Unabated NBA team creates projection sets for different scenarios based upon which key players are Questionable on the injury report with massive potential ramifications on the slate.
If you’ve played an NBA slate as a DFS player or prop bettor, you know the deal with the NBA: The injuries are everything. A minute here or there can be the difference between good chalk and bad chalk, quality value or lineup-ruining value, or an over/under winning or losing by the hook.
Every day we have dozens of players marked as Questionable up until game time with their statuses often impacting the edges or microedges you can have. A couple of times each week here on DraftKings Network, I’ll bring you the latest news and information on a few of the players who seem most noteworthy in Unabated’s Conditional Projections.
The Unabated NBA team, led by industry veteran Justin Phan, currently projects one of the league’s top stars, Luka Doncic, to have a 50% chance to play tonight versus Portland. Doncic has been out since his mammoth 45-point game versus Golden State and could return tonight at home versus the Blazers. On an NBA slate where Giannis Antetokounmpo has already been ruled out, Doncic’ status is key for DFS players tonight as well as prop bettors.
Dallas is currently a 10.5-point favorite versus Portland, a line that reflects the 50/50 probability of Luka to play tonight.
If Luka Doncic plays, he’d bring his usual 32.3% usage rate, 12.5% rebound rate and 35.3% assist rate to the table — a lot of possessions would flow his way. Doncic has produced at a 1.49 DraftKings Point Per Minute clip this year and Unabated’s NBA data team would have him projected for 27.7 points, eight rebounds and 8.2 assists.
If Doncic misses, he’ll open up a lot of production for his key Mavericks teammates. In particular, you’d see massive changes to the projections for Kyrie Irving and P.J. Washington:
- Kyrie Irving projects for 27.5 points, 5.6 rebounds and 6.7 assists (23.3 points, 5 rebounds and 5.3 assists if Doncic plays)
- P.J. Washington projects for 15.2 points, 8.1 rebounds and 2.8 assists (13.1 points, 7.3 rebounds and 2.3 assists if Doncic plays)
Unabated would project 15.5% Expected Value on Washington’s current 25.3 Points + Rebounds + Assists line if Doncic were to miss tonight. There’d be an even higher 33.7% EV on Irving’s 33.5 PRAs line if Doncic sits. Both players would become substantially more appealing at their DraftKings price tags as well for tonight’s DFS tournaments.
There are currently 15 (!!!) different Conditional Projection sets on Unabated for tonight’s 13-game NBA slate with an ungodly amount of key Questionable players on tonight’s slate. Keep your eyes on social media — and Unabated’s data — for many highly necessary updates to come.
See all of the Conditional Projections for tonight’s slate along with live news updates and premium content on Unabated NBA. Start now with promo code SPLASH to get $30 off as a special thank you to DraftKings Network readers.
