Only two more weeks in the regular season to go. Then you will be done with my terrible flow. Maybe that happened long ago. Anyways, I’m sad this slate does not have Cincy Joe, who has recently been putting on quite the show. As of now, I don’t see any games forecast for snow. Good. Let’s save that stuff for the ski slopes nestled next to the chateaus. Ya know? Good luck this week. May one of you bink and make stacks of dough. Merry Christmas to all. Ho! Ho! Ho!
There are eight games on the main slate. DraftKings Sportsbook has two games with an O/U of at least 45: CAR/TB (49.5) and GB/MIN (49). There are two games with a total of 40 or below: LV/NO (40) and MIA/CLE (40).
There is no double-digit spread favorite, although PHI is -9.5 over DAL. There are three games within a field goal: MIN -1 over GB, NO -1.5 over LV and JAX -1 over TEN.
DISCLAIMER: This piece is written early in the week, so it won’t factor in injuries or lineup changes that occur closer to Sunday.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $2.25M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st].
Quarterback
Stud
Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Carolina Panthers ($6,900) – I like all three options that I have listed. There is a risk with Mayfield, as the Panthers have a porous run defense, so the Bucs could score their points on the ground. Also, he put up only 12.2 FPTS the last time he faced Carolina. The last time the Packers and Vikings met, the score was 31-29. Both of these games have a total of at least 49 points, but I’m going to side with Mayfield because the Panthers’ defense is bad, while the Vikings and Packers both have good defenses, and I could see that game being lower-scoring. Mayfield has put up at least 22 FPTS in each of the last three games and has three games over 30 FPTS on the season, so there is access to ceiling. In addition, Bryce Young has been playing better recently and the Bucs can be exploited through the air, so I can see this game being a back-and-forth affair.
Other Options – Sam Darnold ($6,400), Jordan Love ($6,200)
Value
Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($5,600) – Young put up 27.12 FPTS in the Week 16 win over Arizona. He went for 23.62 FPTS in Week 13 against the Buccaneers and, as mentioned in the Mayfield section, I think this game has a chance of being a back-and-forth affair. Tampa Bay has allowed the fifth-highest EPA per dropback.
Other Options – Anthony Richardson ($5,900), Mason Rudolph ($5,000) or Will Levis ($5,000), whichever starts.
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Running Back
Stud
Saquon Barkley, Philadelphia Eagles vs. Dallas Cowboys ($8,600) – Barkley rushed 14 times for 66 yards, good for 8.8 FPTS, when the Eagles faced the Cowboys in Week 10. Jalen Hurts threw for two touchdowns and rushed for another two. Hurts is in concussion protocol, so even if he plays, I doubt the team will expose him to extra hits with the playoffs only a few weeks away. In addition, Barkley needs 268 yards to break the single-season rushing record and Dallas has allowed the most EPA per carry on the season while allowing the most rushing touchdowns.
Other Options – Josh Jacobs ($8,100), Jonathan Taylor ($7,900), James Cook ($7,200), Bucky Irving ($6,700)
Value
Jerome Ford, New York Jets vs. Miami Dolphins ($5,900) – The matchup isn’t great, as the Dolphins have allowed the seventh-lowest EPA per carry. And the quarterback play will be suspect with Dorian Thompson-Robinson expected to start once again. But an 80% snap share, five targets in the passing game and five red zone opportunities in Week 16 are B. U. T. ful.
Other Options – Kendre Miller ($5,500), Tyjae Spears ($5,400), Ameer Abdullah ($5,100), Devin Singletary ($4,200) if Tracy is out
Wide Receiver
Stud
Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Carolina Panther ($6,300) – If I like Mayfield, I have to like his receivers, and it just so happens to be that Evans is one of the best in the game. Against the Panthers in Week 13, Evans caught eight of 12 targets for 118 yards and a touchdown, good for 28.8 FPTS. Two games ago, he hauled in nine of 11 targets for 159 yards and two touchdowns, good for 39.9 FPTS. The ceiling is there. Just have to hope that the rushing game doesn’t vulture all the scoring opportunities.
Other Options – Justin Jefferson ($8,300), Davante Adams ($7,100), Brian Thomas Jr. ($6,800), Malik Nabers ($6,600), Jordan Addison ($6,300)
Value
Jalen Coker, Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($4,300) – Coker has missed six games this season, but the 6-foot-3, 213-pound undrafted rookie has flashed when given the opportunity. Two weeks ago, Coker caught four of six targets for 110 yards and a touchdown, good for 24 FPTS. Against a stout Denver defense in Week 8, Coker caught four of six targets for 78 yards and a touchdown. Last week, he played 82 percent of the snaps, and received five targets and two red zone looks.
Other Options – Jayden Reed ($5,900), Adam Thielen ($5,700), Calvin Ridley ($5,500), Romeo Doubs ($5,100), Christian Watson ($4,900), Jalen McMillan ($4,600)
Tight End
Stud
TJ Hockenson, Minnesota Vikings vs. Green Bay Packers ($4,500) – Hockenson has scored single-digit FPTS in three of the last four games. Since returning to action, he’s finished in single digits five times, but he has three games over 10 FPTS with a high of 21.4 FPTS. Last week was the first time Hockenson played 70 percent of the snaps. The Packers have allowed the 11th-most receptions to tight ends.
Other Options – Brock Bowers ($6,700)
Value
Chig Okonkwo, Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars ($3,600) – Over the last two games, Okonkwo has seen 10 and 11 targets, catching eight and nine for 59 and 81 yards. That’s been good for 13.9 and 19.1 FPTS. It’s good to see Okonkwo start producing, as he’s always been known as a physical marvel, running a 4.52 40 at 6-foot-2 and 243 pounds.
Other Options – Jordan Akins ($2,700) if Njoku is out
Defense/Special Teams
Stud
Eagles DST vs. Dallas Cowboys ($3,100) – The Eagles held Cooper Rush to 13-of-23 passing for 45 yards in the prior meeting. Trey Lance also played in that one and the unit finished with an interception, four fumbles and three sacks. Philadelphia is favored by 9 points, so Dallas will likely have to drop back often to try and keep up, presenting opportunites for sacks and turnovers.
Other Options – Colts DST ($3,500), Dolphins DST ($3,200)
Value
Giants DST vs. Indianapolis Colts ($2,300) – It’s certainly possible that the Colts just ground-and-pound the Giants into submission. Anthony Richardson only threw 11 times in a 38-30 win last week. That said, he still threw an interception and got sacked once. Over the last three games, Richardson has thrown five interceptions and been sacked three times. The Giants blitz at the seventh-highest rate and are second in the league with an 8.3 percent sack rate.
Other Options – Browns DST ($2,400)
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $2.25M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st].
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
