For the first half of his campaign, Brian Robinson Jr. was on the shortlist for best draft steal in fantasy. With a superstar signal caller and a much-improved offensive line, the third-year back seemed to have been a prime beneficiary of the new-look Commanders regime. His progress stuttered thanks to a lingering ankle injury, but Sunday, his performance was so destructive it’s hard to imagine an instant rebound.
On a day when his team completed a dramatic comeback win against a hated division rival, Robinson almost single-handedly put the victory out of grasp. He netted ten carries for 24 yards and lost a pair of fumbles in Philadelphia territory. The inefficient and sloppy showing landed Robinson on the bench, with questions swirling about how Washington will handle its backfield going forward.
Brian Robinson Jr. is a product of his environment
The latest outing was the latest in a string of underwhelming moments since the end of October. Across his last six games, he’s only averaged more than four yards a carry twice. He’s only found the end zone twice in that span, which has cratered his fantasy production. Robinson has failed to reach ten points in half the contests over that stretch, falling below four points twice.
Teams have been so terrified of Jaden Daniels torching them with his legs that they’ve started to force him to beat them with his arm. Defenses are starting to load the box, particularly on early downs, against Washington, which hasn’t boded well for Robinson. At 6’1″ and 228 pounds, he’s supposed to be a physical rusher who barrels through contact.
Robinson often opts to be an agile back but isn’t quick enough to escape tackles with precise lateral movement. There’s a world where he’s a quality change of pace back, but as it stands, he’s not talented enough to be a bell cow RB1.
The look ahead for Brian Robinson Jr.
Washington’s next game is against an Atlanta team that controls its own postseason destiny. The Falcons’ defense has started to come to life in the last few weeks and is a unit on the rise. They have a negative EPA against the run and have started to get more push up front.
Robinson’s inability to hold onto the rock in a crucial showdown will almost certainly cut into his upcoming workload. He should lose touches to Jeremy McNichols, Chris Rodriguez Jr., and even Daniels. Robinson is a sinking asset due to seeing less opportunity in a less-than-ideal matchup. He can recoup some value by punching in a touchdown, but Robinson isn’t worth the headache at a critical juncture on the fantasy calendar.
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