Monday’s 14-game NBA slate will see a true David vs. Goliath clash, as the 22-5 Oklahoma City Thunder, who have the second-best record in basketball and the best net rating, take on the 4-22 Washington Wizards, who have the worst record and worst net rating. To make matters even worse for the Wizards, it’ll take place in Oklahoma City, where the Thunder have lost just twice this season.
Oklahoma City point guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander finished second in MVP voting last season and is hoping to do one better in 2024-25. He’s off to a good start, averaging 30.1 points, 5.5 rebounds, 6.2 assists, and 2.0 steals per game — virtually identical stats to those he put up in 2023-24. He currently has +240 odds to win the award at DraftKings Sportsbook.
On DraftKings Sportsbook, the Thunder are 18-point favorites — the largest spread of any game this season so far — with the point total set at 223. Below, I’ve highlighted my favorite prop bets centered around SGA.
Best Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 45+ Points + Rebounds + Assists (+120)
There is literally no silver lining in Washington’s nightmare season. The Wizards have the third-worst net rating in NBA history and hold bottom-ten ranks in opponent points, rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks, as well as made field goals, three-pointers, and free throws. Washington’s offense also plays at the league’s fourth-fastest pace, ratcheting up the number of possessions and allowing opponents to score in bunches.
Meanwhile, Gilgeous-Alexander is one of the NBA’s most well-rounded players, which should allow him to put up huge stats against a Wizards team that struggles in every facet of the game. He’s also one of the league’s most consistent players, scoring fewer than 20 points just once, recording fewer than five assists just seven times, and grabbing fewer than five rebounds only 10 times.
Virtually the only reason to be pessimistic about Gilgeous-Alexander’s potential for statistical output tonight is the possibility that Oklahoma City might blow Washington out, relegating SGA to the bench for most of the fourth quarter. However, he has played 30-plus minutes and scored 30-plus points in several Thunder blowouts this season, so he should get enough playing time to make a huge all-around impact tonight.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 3+ Steals (+220)
Offensively, Washington has struggled to protect the ball. The Wizards have allowed opponents to rack up 9.5 steals per game, the sixth-most in basketball, and its 15.9% turnover percentage is the ninth-worst in the league. Washington point guard Jordan Poole, the undisputed focal point of the Wizards’ offense since forward Kyle Kuzma got injured, ranks 11th with 3.6 turnovers per game and has the 12th-highest turnover percentage among players who have played at least 20 games and 20 minutes per game.
Meanwhile, Gilgeous-Alexander has always been a dangerous defender, finishing seventh in Defensive Player of the Year voting in 2023-24. So far this season, he has recorded only five games with zero steals and has gotten three or more steals nine times, and his 2.0 defensive win shares lead the league. He has been an especially dangerous ball hawk in recent games, recording at least three steals in three of his last four games, and with how sloppy Washington has been, I like his chances of doing so again tonight.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook, lines and odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
