Thank you, football gods, for blessing us with NFL football on a Saturday. Saturday’s two-game slate begins with C.J. Stroud and the Texans vs. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. Kansas City is unsurprisingly a 3.5-point favorite at home and the game total is set at O/U 42.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook.
The defenses are very good on both sides but there are bound to be at least a few touchdowns, right? If you’re here, you’re looking for who will score the first touchdown of the game, and I broke down my favorite choice below.
Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs
Joe Mixon First TD Scorer (+500)
It’s never an easy task to go into Arrowhead Stadium and score first but this is exactly where Mixon has excelled this season. He has scored at least one touchdown and averaged over 115 rushing yards per game in all six road games and will likely be leaned on early considering C.J. Stroud’s home vs. road splits this season. Kansas City’s run defense stands near the top, ranking fifth in rush EPA and allowing the third-fewest rushing yards per game. But, its defense has been a bit more susceptible against the run in recent weeks, allowing over 5.0 yards per carry.
A primary reason I’m backing Mixon is because of how these teams tend to start the first quarters of games. It’s worth noting that both teams have struggled to score early across the last three weeks but Houston still ranks sixth in first-quarter points and eighth in first-quarter points when playing on the road. Mixon also gets going early, averaging 4.3 first-quarter carries and scoring Houston’s first touchdown in two games this season. He leads the team with 54 total red zone touches against a Chiefs red zone defense that surprisingly performs slightly worse at home this season.
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