The regular season is winding down, as there are only three more weeks of action before the playoffs commence. Before that, we have a great Week 16 slate, with plenty of great prop bets available for this weekend’s action. Below are some of my favorite picks on DraftKings Sportsbook.
OVER Picks
WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba Over 61.5 Rec Yds (-115)
Smith-Njigba has improved tremendously throughout the course of the season and finds himself at the top of the Seawhwaks receiving categories. He leads the team in targets, catches, yards and touchdown receptions. The former Ohio State wideout is currently sixth in the NFL in receiving yards with 994. He has been especially effective in recent games and has hit the over on this total in seven straight games.
This number is way too low, especially when you consider the matchup. The Seahawks face the Vikings on Sunday, who rank 29th in passing defense. The Seahawks may not win this game, but Smith-Njigba should continue to be peppered with targets and therefore hit the over on this number comfortably.
WR Christian Watson Over 46.5 Rec Yds (-115)
Similar to Smith-Njigba, Watson has really improved his game over the latter half of the season. He has become more of a staple of this offense in recent weeks and has hit the over on this number in four of his last five games. Two of those performances went for over 100 yards each, so his ceiling is extremely high.
The Packers have a great matchup for the weekend, as they host the Saints who are well below average against the pass. New Orleans ranks 28th in that category, allowing 242.2 pass yards per game. I expect Watson to continue his good run of form on Sunday.
WR Malik Nabers Over 68.5 Rec Yds (-115)
I simply cannot get enough of betting on Malik Nabers. He has received double-digit targets in six of his last seven games, so everyone knows where the ball is going. It doesn’t matter who is under center for New York, the game plan is always the same. Nabers has gone over this total in three consecutive games, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he made it four in a row on Sunday.
The Giants will travel to Atlanta this Sunday, who are not great against the pass, ranking 24th in the league. Assuming Nabers receives double-digit targets again, I have a hard time seeing him with 68 yards or less. If that happens, it means it was a pretty awful day for either the quarterback, Nabers, or both.
UNDER Picks
QB Josh Allen Under 0.5 INTs Thrown (-120)
This is easily my favorite under of the weekend and is a must-bet. Allen has only thrown five interceptions all season, including zero in his last three games. Only Lamar Jackson and Justin Herbert have thrown less out of all quarterbacks who have played at least 14 games. Allen rarely puts the ball in harm’s way, and he is matched up with a defense who has a hard time getting their hands on the ball.
The Bills will host New England this week, who only have six interceptions as a defense this season. That is the sixth fewest in the NFL. I think Josh Allen and the Bills will roll over the Patriots on Sunday, and hopefully, they can do that without their star player throwing an interception.
RB Kenneth Walker III Under 56.5 Rush Yds (-115)
Walker III will likely return this weekend after a two-game absence. That being said, he did not exactly leave on a good note. Walker had gone under this total in three straight games before the injury. Who knows what his workload will look like this Sunday after some time off, but I think that regardless, he will go under this number for the fourth straight game.
The Seahawks will have plenty of opportunity to attack the Vikings in the passing game, but the running game is a different story. Minnesota is the second-best rushing defense in football, only allowing 89.1 yards per game on the ground. This should be tough sledding for Walker, and coming off a two-week break is certainly far from ideal.
RB D’Andre Swift Under 56.5 Rush Yds (+100)
After a great month of October, Swift has started to slow down in recent weeks. He has gone under this total in three of his last four games, and will now be matched up with the Lions’ defense. Similar to Minnesota, Detroit is much better against the run than the pass, ranking sixth in the NFL against the ground game.
These two teams played each other on Thanksgiving, and it was a tough outing for Swift. He rushed 11 times for 39 yards, only averaging 3.5 yards per carry. I think it will be a similar game for him on Sunday, as the Bears should put the ball into Caleb Williams’s hands and let him try to win the game and move the ball. I think Swift will go under this total for the fourth time in five weeks against difficult opposition.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is ciarandoyle77) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
