In the second half of the Saturday NFL slate, the Baltimore Ravens will host the Pittsburgh Steelers in an AFC North clash. This is a huge matchup for playoff seedings and a near must-win from Baltimore’s perspective.
The Steelers enter this matchup with a 10-4 record and have already clinched a playoff opportunity. A victory in this game would clinch the division as Pittsburgh holds a one-game lead over the Ravens. These two sides faced off in Week 11 with the Steelers producing an 18-16 victory.
Baltimore holds a record of 9-5 on the season with that loss to the Steelers being a notable blemish against them. Even with a victory, they will need some help to claim the division title but this door will fully be shut with a loss.
The Ravens enter this game as 6.5-point favorites in the matchup and -305 on the Moneyline. The Steelers are +245 underdogs on the Moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook and the game total is set at 44.5 points. With the stage set, here are my favorite prop bets for the Saturday afternoon matchup.
Justice Hill Over 22.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Justice Hill has quietly emerged as a key piece in the Ravens passing attack. While Derrick Henry rightfully steals the spotlight at the running back position, Hill has carved out a nice role for himself as the passing down back and made an impact for this Ravens team. He is especially coming on strong towards the end of the season and has logged nine receptions for 76 yards and a receiving touchdown across the past two games.
Hill has tallied at least one reception in every game this season and recorded over 22.5 receiving yards in six different games. This includes the first matchup with the Steelers in which Hill hauled in four of his seven targets for 28 yards. Pittsburgh has allowed 496 receiving yards to the running back position this season and this was an area Baltimore looked to exploit in the first matchup.
Even with Henry being as significant a part of the team as he is, Hill has logged at least 33% of the offensive snaps every game this season with this number reaching as high as 54% in two separate games. On the season overall, he has tallied 45 rush attempts for 198 yards and a touchdown as well as 42 receptions for 383 yards and three touchdowns. With Hill continuing to see his role grow as the season has progressed and this being a hole in the Steelers’ defense, expect him to see a healthy dose of targets this week. It can take just one opportunity for him to break free for 23+ receiving yards. He is seeing an average of 3.6 targets per game and reached this total in the first matchup with the Steelers. Expect Hill to make an impact in this game and record over 22.5 receiving yards.
Jaylen Warren Over 51.5 Rushing and Receiving Yards (-110)
While Najee Harris has held down the role of the primary running back for most of the season, Jaylen Warren has now recorded more snaps in back-to-back weeks. Harris logged just 33% of the offensive snaps last week against the Philadelphia Eagles and was held to only six carries for 14 yards and one catch for seven yards. This was his lowest level of opportunity all season.
Jaylen Warren is a more effective pass-catcher and if the Ravens can grab an early lead this will be especially noteworthy. Warren has recorded over 51.5 combined rushing and receiving yards in eight of the 12 games he has played this season. In the first matchup with Baltimore, Warren tallied nine rush attempts for 41 yards while adding four receptions for 27 yards.
Warren’s ability as a pass-catcher puts him in a position to impact the game in a variety of ways. While Harris will still see some opportunities, this may be more of a trend than an outlier that Warren is seeing a higher percentage of snaps. Expect his increase in opportunity to occur for the third straight week and for Warren to see enough touches to record over 51.5 yards from scrimmage for the ninth time this season.
Lamar Jackson Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-110)
Lamar Jackson has been statically better than either of his MVP seasons, but Josh Allen sits at the forefront of the discussion for the award this year. While Jackson and the Ravens have larger goals ahead, don’t consider this race fully over just yet. The Louisville product leads the NFL in touchdown percentage, interception rate, passer rating, net yards gained per pass attempt, and a handful of other advanced passing metrics. Overall he has thrown for 3,580 passing yards, 34 touchdowns, and just three interceptions this year. This goes without mentioning the 743 rushing yards and three touchdowns on the ground.
Any lingering concerns about Jackson’s ability as a passer have been put to bed and he has been picking opponents apart with his arm this season. He has thrown for over 1.5 passing touchdowns in nine of the 14 games this season. He also is coming off a week in which he produced five passing touchdowns against the Giants. He has thrown for over 1.5 touchdowns in three consecutive games leading into this matchup. The last time he did not throw two or more touchdowns was the previous matchup with the Steelers.
Pittsburgh’s defense ranks 22nd in passing yards allowed but sixth in passing touchdowns conceded. Last week they were picked apart by Jalen Hurts who threw for two touchdowns and added one with his legs. Jackson is a more talented passer and this is a huge matchup for the Ravens. While he struggled a bit in the first matchup with the Steelers, expect a different result with the home crowd behind him and so much at stake. Look for Jackson to do everything possible to lead the Ravens to a crucial win this week and throw for at least two touchdowns in the process.
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