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It is a busy week in the NFL with the playoffs drifting closer on the horizon. Three games have already taken place with the Chargers and Broncos playing on Thursday Night and a pair of games taking place on Saturday. There are still plenty of matchups set to take place with seven games in the early window and four taking place during the later slate of Sunday games.
Here is a breakdown of some players with a great opportunity to outperform their price point in Week 16. Be sure to get some superstars in your lineup, but here are some lower-budget names who could help you win your competitions!
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Quarterbacks:
Drake Maye ($5,800)
The New England Patriots are set to face off with the Buffalo Bills this week who look to be on a mission this season. Buffalo enters the matchup with an 11-3 record and has already clinched the AFC East divisional title. The Bills are a high-flying offense that ranks second in the league in scoring and have scored 30+ points in eight straight games leading into this matchup. They also have tallied 90 combined points across the past two weeks.
New England is not capable of this level of offensive output, but the opportunity is there for Drake Maye to have a successful fantasy football performance. On the season overall, Maye is averaging 16.3 fantasy points per game based on DraftKings scoring. This ranks 20th among quarterbacks. Maye has gone over his average each of the past two weeks and has tallied as many as 20.8 fantasy points in a game this year.
While the Patriots will not be close to the contender conversation this year and hold a record of just 3-11, all focus within the organization is on the continued development of their franchise quarterback. While the Bills offense has been strong they have struggled defensively. Buffalo ranks 12th in points allowed, 23rd in yards given up, 25th in passing yards allowed, 21st in touchdowns allowed, and 17th in net yards per pass attempt. The Lions are in a separate tier of a team compared to the Patriots, but Detroit recorded 473 passing yards last week against Buffalo. Count on Maye to rake up some garbage time opportunities and end up with a solid fantasy output as the Patriots continue to keep him on his developmental arc regardless of the score.
Michael Penix Jr ($4,500)
The Atlanta Falcons put an end to the Kirk Cousins era after handing him a four-year $180 million contract this offseason. After a five-week stretch in which Cousins threw for just one touchdown and nine interceptions, Atlanta elected to give Michael Penix Jr a chance at the starting role. This year’s eighth overall pick will be thrown to the fire and need to deliver with the Falcons still right in the playoff mix. Currently, they are one game behind the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the division.
While Penix has only attempted five passes at the NFL level thus far, he is one of the more NFL-ready rookies you will see. The 24-year-old spent four seasons at Indiana and two seasons at Washington before making the NFL leap. Penix led the PAC-12 in passing yards and pass attempts both seasons at Washington and was second in Heisman voting last year.
There are plays to be made in this Falcons offense that Kirk Cousins was unable to capitalize on. Atlanta would not have made this change if they did not believe Penix gave them a better chance to win and that he was ready for the moment. With players like Bijan Robinson, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts surrounding him, expect the game to be kept simple for Penix and for the skill position players to step up. This is a risky play, but don’t be shocked if Penix produces a performance that makes you wonder why they didn’t make the move sooner.
Running Backs
Jerome Ford ($5,600)
The Cleveland Browns made another quarterback change electing to send Jameis Winston to the bench. Dorian Thompson-Robinson will step in as the starter and will change the outlook of the offense pretty drastically. Winston had breathed some life into the passing game which vastly benefitted players like Jerry Jeudy and David Njoku. Expect the Browns to lean on a more rush-oriented attack with DTR under center.
While this is limited to a number of the position players, expect Jerome Ford to have a chance at a strong performance. More injury news hit the Browns last week as Nick Chubb suffered a broken foot. Ford stepped in and received 84% of the snaps and every running back opportunity following this point.
Overall this season, Ford has rushed the ball 87 times for 451 yards and two touchdowns. Cleveland will be facing off against the Cincinnati Bengals this week who rank 31st in points allowed and 29th in yards given up. They are 20th in rushing yards allowed and 27th in rushing touchdowns sustained. They also are last in fantasy points allowed to running backs across the past five weeks. With a struggling defense in front of him and more offensive opportunities on his plate, expect a solid performance from Ford.
Patrick Taylor Jr ($5,200)
The injury bug has seemingly lived in the San Franciso 49ers organization this season. Looking at just the running back position, Christian McCaffrey was able to suit up for just four games this year and Jordan Mason joined him on injured reserve with an ankle injury. Most recently Isaac Guerendo added to the lengthy list of injuries and will miss this week due to foot and hamstring injuries.
Someone still has to run the ball for the 49ers. Enter Patrick Taylor Jr., who is expected to be next in line for carries on the team. The fourth-year running back has carried the ball just 79 total times in his career for 311 yards and two touchdowns. He has carried the ball 14 times this season with the 49ers which has led to just 50 rushing yards and a touchdown.
There is not much of a sample size to say what Taylor Jr can or cannot do at this point. But we do know how friendly the 49ers’ system is to running backs. Since 2022, running backs in Kyle Shanahan’s system average 1.82 yards per carry before contact which is the second-best rate in the NFL and 36.8% better than the league average. San Francisco is set to face the Miami Dolphins who join them in the category of teams that have not lived up to their hopes for the season. The volume of opportunity is the best indicator of fantasy output and Taylor should see far more chances with the ball than his pricepoint would suggest.
Wide Receivers
Adam Thielen ($5,600)
The Carolina Panthers hold a 3-11 record and have lost four straight games entering this week’s matchup with the Cardinals. The focus for the organization continues to be on the development of Bryce Young, who has shown some flashes since being re-injected into the starting lineup. One of the biggest beneficiaries of this has been veteran wide receiver Adam Thielen.
On the season overall, Thielen has been limited to seven games and produced 33 receptions for 418 yards and two touchdowns. Thielen has tallied 50+ receiving yards in each of the past four games and recorded five or more catches across each of the last three games. Looking at just Weeks 12 and 13, Thielen combined for 17 catches for 201 yards.
In addition, Xavier Leggette is set to miss this week due to a hip injury while Jalen Coker is listed as questionable. Coker made his return to the field last week and led the team in receiving, but Thielen ran more routes. Arizona has struggled to defend the pass this season. They rank 17th in passing yards allowed and 23rd in net yards per pass attempt. The Cardinals also have allowed the second-highest targets to slot receivers this season, where Thielen ran 67% of his snaps last week. Expect the veteran to be active in the passing game and outperform his price point this week.
Wan’Dale Robinson ($4,100)
Through the early parts of the season, Wan’Dale Robinson was among the leaders in the entire NFL in targets and receptions. Things have drastically changed for the Giants since this point with then starter Daniel Jones no longer being with the organization and four different quarterbacks having taken snaps. Even amid the quarterback uncertainty, Robinson has recorded at least two catches in every game this year.
The Giants are set to face the Atlanta Falcons this week who made a quarterback change of their own. Looking at their defense, Atlanta ranks 25th in points allowed and 20th in yards given up. It also ranks 24th in passing yards allowed, 29th in passing touchdowns given up, and 24th in net yards per pass attempt.
While the Giants’ issues have been internal, Drew Lock is set to return to the starting lineup this week. Lock is far from a perfect quarterback, but possesses a willingness to let it fly and threw the ball 49 times the last time he started for the Giants. Robinson ranks 51st in fantasy points among wide receivers based on DraftKings scoring averaging 9.8 fantasy points per game. With a quarterback that will give him a chance to make plays, it is worth taking a flier on Robinson this week.
Tight End
Kyle Pitts ($4,000)
As the Falcons look to get Michael Penix comfortable, expect Kyle Pitts to be heavily involved in this game. Tight ends are a young quarterback’s best friend and Pitts is a player the Falcons are still desperately trying to get to play up to his potential. So far this season, Pitts has tallied 40 receptions for 536 receiving yards and three touchdowns.
The Giants have struggled to stop tight ends this season. They have allowed at least one catch to a tight end every game this season and are allowing an average of 40.1 receiving yards per game to the position. Looking at Pitts’ production, he is averaging 38.3 receiving yards per game. Kirk Cousins carries some of the blame for this and is part of the reason the decision to bench the veteran was made. Pitts is below his average receiving output last season and well below the 60.4 yards per game he produced as a rookie.
With New York’s defense being vulnerable to tight ends, Atlanta looking to get Penix comfortable and Pitts being an underutilized part of the offense, this has the makings of a big day. Expect Pitts to be viewed as a safety valve in the offense for the rookie quarterback. Count on him to be more involved than has been the case for most of the season.
Brenton Strange ($3,500)
There is not a lot of positive to take from the Jacksonville Jaguars this season, but Brenton Strange is an intriguing name to watch. Evan Engram has been ruled out for the season, providing the opportunity for Strange to step into the starting role.
Strange was a top-10 fantasy tight end during three of the four starts that he had while Engram was out earlier this year. He then re-annouced his presence last week recording 11 receptions for 73 yards. Jacksonville tight ends have also seen a heavier dose of action with Mac Jones in the lineup, averaging 8.4 targets in these games.
This matchup is also set to take place against the Las Vegas Raiders who have allowed the fourth-most yards and third-most fantasy points to tight ends this season. Strange is big and athletic and will cause some matchup issues. The Penn State product is an awesome low-cost option in Week 16.
Defense & Special Teams
Tennessee Titans Defense & Special Teams ($2,600)
The Tennessee Titans’ defensive metrics are all over the place this season. They rank 29th in points allowed but have given up the second-fewest yards on the season. Overall, they rank 28th in fantasy points allowed, but this is an intriguing matchup for them to have some success.
Tennessee will face off against the Indianapolis Colts this week. Anthony Richardson will continue to play through his growing pains as the starting quarterback. He has completed just 47% of his passes this year for an average of 168.3 passing yards per game, seven touchdowns, and 11 interceptions. Richardson has also fumbled the ball nine times this season.
While the Titans have some defensive concerns, the turnover variance that occurs when playing Richardson is enough to make it worth taking a chance on. One pick-six or notable turnover can pave the way for a successful fantasy output for the Titans and Richardson has not consistently shown to be able to command an offense. If you are looking to save money at the defensive spot for positional players, the Titans are worth taking a chance on this week.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $2.5M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st]
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is seanbarnard) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
