Unabated is an industry leader in real-time betting data and profitable sports betting tools. For the NBA season, they created the industry’s first-ever Conditional Projections. Every day, the Unabated NBA team creates projection sets for different scenarios based upon which key players are Questionable on the injury report with massive potential ramifications on the slate.
If you’ve played an NBA slate as a DFS player or prop bettor, you know the deal with the NBA: The injuries are everything. A minute here or there can be the difference between good chalk and bad chalk, quality value or lineup-ruining value, or an over/under winning or losing by the hook.
Every day we have dozens of players marked as questionable up until game time with their statuses often impacting the edges or microedges you can have. A couple of times each week here on DraftKings Network, I’ll bring you the latest news and information on a few of the players who seem most noteworthy in Unabated’s Conditional Projections.
The Unabated NBA team, led by industry veteran Justin Phan, currently projects the always questionable Joel Embiid to have a 50% chance to play today. Embiid has been on pace to recover from his recent sinus fracture. With Philadelphia on a back-to-back and a more meaningful game tomorrow night versus Cleveland, there’s legitimate questions on if Embiid will be available tonight versus a shorthanded Hornets team.
Embiid’s rates have been down overall this year with the aggressive usage for Paul George, Tyrese Maxey and the now-injured Jared McCain. But since the Sixers’ “locker room leak” situation and being called out by his teammates, Embiid has averaged a 40.2% usage rate, 16.7% rebound rate and 37.5% rebound rate in a limited sample size of 107 possessions due to his persistent injury absences. These rates are much closer to his historical averages.
If Embiid plays, he projects well with 22.9 points, 8.1 rebounds and 3.8 assists. Industry estimates have him projected to be around 35% owned in large field DraftKings tournaments tonight.
If Embiid sits, he’ll open up a lot of opportunity for his Sixers teammates in a game they’re an 11-point favorite at home versus a Charlotte squad without LaMelo Ball, Brandon Miller and Mark Williams.
- Paul George projects for 22.2 points, 6.0 rebounds and 5.6 assists (19.7 points, 5.7 rebounds and 5.2 assists if Embiid plays)
- Tyrese Maxey projects for 27.7 points, 4.0 rebounds and 6.4 assists (24.0 points, 3.7 rebounds and 5.8 assists if Embiid plays)
- Kelly Oubre projects for 15.7 points, 5.5 rebounds and 1.5 assists (13.9 points, 5.2 rebounds and 1.4 assists if Embiid plays)
If Embiid were out, Tyrese Maxey would have an 11% Expected Value on his current 35.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists line on DraftKings Sportsbook. Paul George would have an even higher 16.6% EV on his 30.5 PRAs line on DraftKings Sportsbook. There are huge values in betting and key DFS ramifications if Joel Embiid sits again tonight.
See all of the Conditional Projections for tonight’s slate along with live news updates and premium content on Unabated NBA. Start now with promo code SPLASH to get $30 off as a special thank you to DraftKings Network readers.
