Chelsea staff, players and fans all continue to insist that they’re not in the title race. Well, there’s no way around around it, Blues fans: you are.
With the festive fixtures approaching, Liverpool’s lead at the top of the Premier League is just two points after it fought to a draw with 10 men against Fulham last week, although it still has a game in hand.
For those who are interested in getting into the football action, there are plenty of bets available at DraftKings Sportsbook. Here are my top betting picks for this weekend’s Premier League slate.
First, let’s take a look at the full schedule for Matchweek 17:
Manchester City at Aston Villa, 7:30 a.m. EST, December 21
Nottingham Forest at Brentford, 10 a.m. EST, December 21
Newcastle at Ipswich Town, 10 a.m. EST, December 21
Brighton at West Ham United, 10 a.m. EST, December 21
Arsenal at Crystal Palace, 12:30 p.m. EST, December 21
Chelsea at Everton, 9 a.m. EST, December 22
Southampton at Fulham, 9 a.m. EST, December 22
Wolverhampton Wanderers at Leicester City, 9 a.m. EST, December 22
AFC Bournemouth at Manchester United, 9 a.m. EST, December 22
Liverpool at Tottenham Hotspur, 11:30 a.m. EST, December 22
Jhon Duran Anytime Scorer (+150)
Some players have a penchant for big moments. Jhon Duran is one of them.
Aston Villa’s super-sub has been absolutely clinical this season, turning 3.8 expected goals into six shots that actually found the back of the net, including one of the most memorable screamers of the season. The 21-year-old Colombian is scoring a ridiculous 1.03 goals per 90 minutes, including a Champions League winner against Bayern Munich. Manager Unai Emery has begun to trust him more, giving him his first two Premier League starts of the season in the last two Matchweeks. He scored in both of them.
In Duran’s mind, Saturday’s home clash against Manchester City certainly counts as a big game. He is expected to start again as Villa’s sole striker against the four-time defending Premier League champions. Manchester City has only won one game in its last 11 across all competitions to drop to fifth in the table and, as manager Pep Guardiola has freely admitted, is out of the title race. Aston Villa, with 25 points to City’s 27, can leapfrog them in the table with a victory.
In particular, City’s defense has been leaky in recent weeks. Led by Norwegian striker Erling Haaland, the attack has been fine, as City still ranks sixth with 28 goals scored, but it has allowed 23 goals this season, ninth-most in the top flight. Villa has been on fire all season, sitting sixth in the Premier League and fifth in the Champions League, and Duran seems like a good bet to find the back of the net again on Saturday.
Nottingham Forest Moneyline (+200)
It’s been an incredible come-up for Nuno Espírito Santo’s men. Last season, Nottingham Forest technically still could’ve been relegated until the final day, edging out Luton Town by a six-point margin to stay in the top flight. This season, the Forest are flying high, sitting fourth in the table on 28 points, just eight points off league leaders Liverpool.
Brentford haven’t been bad either, sitting 11th in the table on 23 points. The Bees have been fun to watch, scoring 32 goals — third-most in the Premier League — but also conceding 30, more than all but three teams. They’ve been especially incredible at home, picking up a league-leading 22 points on friendly ground and only one point on the road. Their brilliant home form explains why they’re favored to pick up at least a draw against Nottingham Forest.
Brentford’s massive home-and-away differential might be a real thing, and the Gtech Community Stadium is certainly buzzing sometimes. Still, especially at plus odds, I think it’ll even out at some point. By expected goal differential, Nottingham Forest has actually gotten a little unlucky and Brentford a little lucky. The Forest have been five goals better than the Bees across the season, and I think they’ll continue their superb form on Saturday.
Fulham O2.5 Goals Scored (+135)
I’ve written several times about how bad Southampton is and how leaky its defense has been, and I’m going to do so again here. The Saints have shown no will to stay up in the Premier League, conceding five first-half goals to Tottenham in a drubbing that had even their fans leaving in the game’s first 25 minutes.
Meanwhile, Fulham has enjoyed a pretty good attack so far this season, with Raul Jimenez and Alex Iwobi each contributing five goals. The Cottagers have scored 24 goals this season, tied for the eighth-most in the league, and they quietly sit eighth in the table and are in excellent form after holding Arsenal and Liverpool to draws in each of the last two weeks. American defender Antonee Robinson, in particular, has been spectacular.
Although they only scored a combined three goals across those two matches, I back them to put three in against Southampton. The Saints have conceded five goals twice in their last three matches. Granted, they were to Tottenham and Chelsea, the league’s two most potent attacks, but fans can expect a third London club to get its way on Sunday.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
