Super Bowl contenders meet on Saturday afternoon when the 13-1 Chiefs host the 9-5 Texans. Houston enters Week 16 looking to establish itself as one of the NFL’s elite, while the Chiefs are hoping to clinch the number one seed in the AFC. While there’s offensive firepower on each sideline, both teams are comfortable leaning on their elite defense to ‘win ugly.’ Kansas City opens the contest as 3.5-point favorites, with the over/under set at 42.5 points.
Best Joe Mixon Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
The Texans made it a priority to improve their running game this offseason, trading for Bengals running back Joe Mixon. Despite fears that he was beginning to decline, the 28-year-old is on pace for a career year. The former Pro Bowler has gained 1187 yards from scrimmage (107.9) and 12 total touchdowns through 11 games.
Compared to last season, Houston has had a more difficult time moving the ball, ranking 19th in the league in passing yards (212.8) and total yards (324.2). That hasn’t necessarily hurt Mixon, as head coach DeMeco Ryans has turned to the backfield more often in close games. Historically, a below-average passing attack isn’t a recipe for success at Arrowhead Stadium.
The Texans will need to throw, especially against Kansas City’s ferocious defensive line. This season, the Chiefs are allowing the third-fewest rushing yards (91.9) and the seventh-fewest rushing touchdowns (11) in football. Still, Mixon has shown he can produce regardless of game script. In games with more than 30 Houston pass attempts, the running back has averaged 85.3 rushing yards per game.
Kansas City could get out to an early lead, but nothing about either of these squads suggests a blowout is in the works. As long as Houston stays in the game, Ryans should continue to give his star back plenty of touches. At plus-money, hitting the over on Mixon rushing yards could deliver serious value.
The Play: Joe Mixon over 70.5 rushing yards (+130)
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