GPPs are not won by using all of the most popular players on the slate. Being a contrarian in a big-field event can help separate your lineup and gain you leverage over the field when some of the more popular names bust. The goal of this article won’t be to highlight the popular “play-it-safe” NFL names your dad talks about at family dinner.
No. Us? We’re looking for some diamonds in the rough. Guys that no one talks about—not even their own coaches.
OK, we’re not going that deep, but you get the idea—lower ownership and high upside. We’re looking for players who we feel good about, but still make us feel alive inside. That’s the goal.
Let’s dive into Week 16.
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Top DFS Stack
Game Stack: Eagles at Commanders
Jalen Hurts ($7,800) – Devonta Smith ($5,800) – Terry McLaurin ($7,300) – Grant Calcaterra ($3,400)
This is a very boom-or-bust stack, but if the Eagles’ touchdowns break your way you can potentially gain a ton of leverage on Saquon Barkley lineups, a player who will be very high-owned this week.
I like Hurts over Barley this week for a couple of reasons, one being the fact he has played well over the past two games, and two being the fact he’s always capable of stealing away the one-yard touchdowns from Barkley.
He’s also coming off a nice game against the Steelers, where he completed 78% of his passes and threw for 9.0 yards per attempt, with two touchdowns. Hurts targeted the now-healthy Devonta Smith 12 times in that game and the two connected for 11 receptions, 109 yards, and a touchdown Pairing Hurts and Smith isn’t a hard duo to fit into your lineup but still gives you great exposure to this Eagles offense, while also giving you great leverage over two players in A.J. Brown and Saquon Barkley who will likely be popular picks.
As a comeback play, I also think Terry McLaurin makes plenty of sense. He’s posted target shares of 28% and 36% in his last two weeks and with a tough matchup, I can’t see DFS players flocking to him very hard in this spot. That could be a mistake. McLaurin did bust hard in the first meeting between these two teams but I would be shocked if the Commanders didn’t try and get him more involved early on in Week 16. Jayden Daniels is also healthier than he was for that first matchup which should boost his upside.
As an add-on, if you want a cheap way to approach tight end this week, and want a second receiver to add to your Jalen Hurts stack, then Grant Calcaterra is a viable name to consider. He caught his first touchdown two weeks ago against the Panthers in a game where he also had a 17% target share. The Commanders have allowed the fourth most touchdowns to opposing tight ends this season and gave up 60+ yards to Dallas Goedert in Week 11.
Quarterback
Michael Penix Jr. ($4,500)
We got news mid-week that Penix Jr. would be taking over for Kirk Cousins and that’s led to us having a shot at rostering him with a sub-$5,000 salary. It’s right to be mildly cautious in this scenario but Penix Jr. is an older rookie, who was one of the passers in college last season and has been adjusting to NFL life all season. He’ll also be playing in a dome for his first start against a Giants defense that is 29th in EPA per dropback.
You really couldn’t ask for a much better spot to bring on a rookie and it’s not like Penix Jr. hasn’t started in big games before, getting to the Championship game with Washington last season. Add in the fact you can stack him cheaply with names like Darnell Mooney ($5,400) or even Kyle Pitts ($4,000) and you have a solid spot to deploy him for a few GPP lineups in DFS this week.
Running Back
Bijan Robinson ($8,100)
As much as I like Penix Jr., all he may need to do in this spot is hand off the ball and dump off short passes to Robinson. The Giants are one of the worst rush defenses in the league, ranking 25th in success rate vs. the rush, and have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs. Robinson has also run the ball well of late, taking 22 carries against the Raiders in Week 15 for 5.7 yards per carry, and has held steady at a 75% snap share over his last three games.
In some ways, his higher price actually makes him more attractive for DFS purposes as most will flock to the cheaper Jahmyr Gibbs this week, which gives Robinson lineups more leverage in bigger fields.
Tank Bigsby ($5,300)
Despite not busting any big runs of late, Bigsby remains one of the best early down rushers in the league. He leads the league in yards after contact, per rush and will face a Raiders defense that has allowed 4.8 yards per carry over their last three games.
Bigsby’s workload is the main reason why he’s so cheap this week, but his carry rate has remained solid. He only played 22% of the snaps last week but still reeled off 11 carries against a tougher Jets rush defense. The week prior, he saw 18 carries and scored his first rushing touchdown since Week 7.
The game script against the Raiders means Bigsby will have a far better shot at hitting 15+ carries again and if he does, his odds of busting a big run or touchdown against this weaker defense go up exponentially. He makes for a great boom-bust target at under $5,500 this week.
Wide Receiver
Davante Adams ($7,100)
Adams has been on fire of late, going for nine catches in each of his last two games. I don’t necessarily see him slowing down this week either as he’ll be up against a Rams secondary that ranks 27th in EPA per dropback and has two undersized corners in Darius Williams (5’9) and Cobie Durant (5’11).
The Jets’ defense has been allowing a ton of points and yards themselves (25th in EPA per play) so the game flow is very likely to support another 10+ targets from Aaron Rodgers. Either way, Adams’ DFS price hasn’t caught up to his increased usage of late making him a great core value to build around for Week 16.
Jauan Jennings ($5,900)
Arrows are definitely pointing up for Jauan Jennings this week.
Over his last three games, he’s produced target shares of 29%, 32%, and 27%, and this week the 49ers will be up against a secondary in Miami that plays a lot of cover three and tends to allow a lot of easy, short completions. As a possession receiver who typically doesn’t see a ton of downfield work, this should be a great spot for Jennings and Purdy to get back on track after a poor Week 15 where Jennings only caught two of his nine targets.
Miami’s secondary has regressed as a whole as the season has gone on and has now allowed a 70% completion rate to opposing quarterbacks over their last three games, so this is certainly a spot where Jennings could rack up 7+ catches again, a feat he’s accomplished four times already this season.
Tight End
Sam LaPorta ($4,700)
LaPorta has been a disappointment for much of the season but the Lions’ injury issues have pushed him more to the forefront of late and I expect that trend to continue this week against the Bears. The second-year tight end saw a season-high 10 targets in his last game and posted 111 yards and seven receptions against the Bills, in one of the wilder games of the season.
The Lions will be looking to run the ball more but are also without their inside-the-tackles hammer David Montgomery, which is likely to push them toward the short passing game a little more. The Bears may not look like the greatest matchup on paper, but this secondary has given up a lot of receptions of late and has allowed two 100+ yard performances to an opposing tight end over their last four games.
I wouldn’t hesitate to go back to LaPorta in this spot, whose price hasn’t caught up to the fact that his usage has risen substantially from early in the season.
Defense/Special Teams
Titans D/ST ($2,600)
Every time a defense is going up against Anthony Richardson, they are startable. Richardson has now thrown four interceptions over his last two games and has 11 on the season to go with three lost fumbles. The Titans’ defense has also been a solid performer of late. They now have five interceptions over their last three games and have produced 8.0 and 9.0 DK FPTS over the last two games as well.
Tennessee hasn’t been great at pressuring the quarterback this season but the addition of Chidobe Awuzie to the secondary has helped solidify things on the backend. They also likely get a small bump from having Mason Rudolph play quarterback this week, who is likely to be more conservative and far less likely to give up some kind of back-breaking turnover that gives the Colts points or great field position.
All things considered, this is a great price for a solid unit that is up against a turnover-prone quarterback and unlikely to be heavily rostered.
Be sure to set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $2.25M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st]
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is wavegoodbye) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
