Penn State will be hosting SMU in the first round of the College Football Playoff. Here are the best player props to consider for the matchup on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Penn State lost the Big Ten Championship Game and SMU lost the ACC Championship Game but both teams are still in the playoff. SMU has the 8th highest-scoring offense in the country while Penn State has the 8th-best scoring defense in the country. This should be a great battle between those two units but there are a couple of players that could make the key difference in deciding who wins this game.
Tyler Warren 70+ Receiving Yards (-130)
Tyler Warren was the 2024 Mackey Award winner, given to the best tight end in college football. He has been the difference-maker for the Penn State offense all season. They have a good two-pronged rushing attack but they lack an elite wide receiver. That is why Tyler Warren has been so important to the Penn State offense. He has twice as many receptions as the next-best receiver on the roster, leads the team in touchdowns and has over 1,000 receiving yards on the season.
SMU has an elite run defense. They rank third in defensive EPA/rush and they will make life really difficult for the Penn State running back duo. Drew Allar will need to look to Tyler Warren for Penn State to move the ball. Warren has 70+ receiving yards in four of his past five games, with 68 yards in the one game where he didn’t clear that total. He is always going to get a large share of the targets in this offense and he will be able to break some of those passes for big chunks of yardage. In a playoff game where everything is on the line, Drew Allar will go to his top target and Warren should have a big day.
Roderick Daniels Jr. 39+ Receiving Yards (-115)
The SMU offense is one of the best units in the country. Ever since Kevin Jennings took over at quarterback, they have been an unstoppable force. They have been a much more efficient passing offense than a rushing one. They rank 10th in offensive EPA/pass but 92 in offensive EPA/rush. This also matches up well with the Penn State defense. Penn State has an elite rushing defense, ranking 6th in defensive EPA/rush. Meanwhile, Penn State ranks 25th in defensive EPA/pass. They still have a great secondary but not as elite as their run defense.
SMU’s struggles on the ground, along with Penn State’s elite run defense, should make this an extremely pass-heavy approach by SMU. Roderick Daniels leads this SMU offense in both receptions and receiving yards this season. He is also the most in-form of the SMU receivers, averaging 76.5 receiving yards per game over his past six games. He also has his three highest reception totals of the season in his past three games. Daniels is the guy that Jennings has the best connection with at the moment and he should clear this number against Penn State.
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