After the Denver Broncos’ win over the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday, the AFC’s playoff picture is starting to take shape. We basically know that it’ll be the Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills, Pittsburgh Steelers, Houston Texans, Baltimore Ravens, the Broncos, and the Los Angeles Chargers suiting up beyond 17 games. What we don’t know is the seeding.
Thursday night’s clash will help solve that question, as Denver will travel to Los Angeles to take on the Chargers. Los Angeles has been one of the surprises of the season, sitting at 8-6 even after a blowout loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. New head coach Jim Harbaugh has seemingly coached the turnovers out of quarterback Justin Herbert’s game, as he’s thrown just two interceptions all season.
The difference between the No. 6 and No. 7 seeds could be the difference between a first-round date with the high-powered Bills and the relatively less menacing Steelers or Texans, so Thursday’s game will definitely bring a playoff atmosphere.
On DraftKings Sportsbook, the Chargers are 2.5-point favorites, and the point total is set at 42. Below, I’ve identified my favorite prop bet centered around Herbert.
Best Justin Herbert Prop Bet on DraftKings Sportsbook
Justin Herbert U235.5 Passing Yards (-115)
While Herbert may have been a gunslinger in his earlier years — especially in his second season, when he passed for over 5,000 yards — this season’s version has been a lot more conservative with the ball, as Los Angeles tends to rely on its ground game to win games. Even while dropping back to pass on 70% of the Chargers’ offensive snaps, Herbert couldn’t crack the 200-yard mark on Sunday, marking the fourth consecutive game in which he has thrown for fewer than 235 passing yards.
I don’t expect that to change on Thursday night against a Broncos secondary that is led by Pro Football Focus’ top-ranked cornerback, Patrick Surtain II. Denver has been challenged frequently through the air this season, with opposing quarterbacks attempting 509 passes, the third-most of any team. But opponents haven’t been particularly successful, completing just 63.1% of them for 3,318 yards, 17 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions. The Broncos hold opposing signal-callers to 6.5 yards per attempt, the third-least efficient rate in the league.
The Crown Is Yours: Sign up for DraftKings and experience the ultimate host for games and betting experiences!
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook, lines and odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
