Week 16 is here and it starts with an AFC West clash on Thursday Night Football between the Broncos and Chargers. These teams last met in Week 6 where the Chargers won, 23-16. There are heavy playoff implications, too, considering Denver and Los Angeles currently hold the No. 6 and 7 seeds in the AFC, respectively. It’s going to be a good one and while both teams are tied for first in points allowed per game (17.6), there has to be at least one touchdown… right? Please, football gods––don’t give us another 49ers vs. Rams situation.
Besides, we don’t care about the number of touchdowns––we only care about who scores the first one. Gus Edwards (+700) leads the way in terms of odds on DraftKings Sportsbook but I must admit, this game will likely be defense-focused and the choice for first touchdown scorer may truly be a shot-in-the-dark.
That said, somebody has to be the first touchdown scorer and I did my best to identify the best option on DraftKings Sportsbook for Broncos vs. Chargers. Read below for my favorite choice with analysis.
Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers
Courtland Sutton First TD Scorer (+950)
10-1 odds suggest that this play is, in fact, a shot-in-the-dark but I’m not sure what to expect of these teams. Los Angeles was embarrassed by Tampa Bay at home and Denver struggled for three quarters against Indianapolis. The Broncos have won four straight games while the Chargers have dropped three of their last four and are dealing with a slew of injuries on both sides of the ball.
Courtland Sutton feels like the safest choice. He has the volume, garnering an average of 9.2 targets and 6.8 receptions per game across the last five games. He has the production, totaling three touchdowns and at least 70 receiving yards in each of the last five games. Four of Sutton’s five touchdowns this season have come when playing on the road, too, and the Chargers’ secondary is very banged up. Los Angeles just got diced up by Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers offense last week and Sutton profiles similarly to Mike Evans (9-159-2 vs. LAC) as a contested-catch deep threat.
The Chargers have the best red zone defense in the league but Sutton still excels in the red zone and leads all pass-catchers with 19 red zone targets this season. There’s a chance that a backup or not 100 percent healthy cornerback has the task of covering Sutton throughout the game and his chemistry with Bo Nix has been far too strong to fade. Avoiding the headache of choosing the correct Broncos running back or random Chargers’ pass-catcher and trusting the clear-cut best Broncos offensive player is the route I’m taking.
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