Divisional rivals meet on Thursday Night Football when the 8-6 Chargers host the 9-5 Broncos at SoFi Stadium. Although the AFC playoff picture is all but decided, seeding (and bragging rights) are still up for grabs. The last time these two teams met in October, Los Angeles delivered a commanding 23-16 road win. This week, the Bolts are 2.5-point favorites, with the over/under set at 42 points.
A game between two of the NFL’s best defenses makes it tough to project a touchdown scorer. Both quarterbacks, Justin Herbert and Bo Nix, are capable of slinging it, but their head coaches would prefer to run out the clock. That’s especially true for the Chargers, who rank 29th in total pass attempts. That low number is inflated by the past two weeks, in which the team found itself trailing by multiple scores against the Chiefs and Buccaneers.
Since LA is far likelier to pound the rock as home favorites, it makes more sense to back Denver’s passing game. Sean Payton has shown an affinity for the run over his seventeen-year head coaching career, but he might not have the current personnel to pull it off. The Broncos have failed to get much production from their running backs; Javonte Williams leads the team with 462 rushing yards (32.9 yards per game). It also helps that the team has shown it can win by throwing the ball downfield, going 4-2 in games where Nix has 35 or more pass attempts.
Speaking of Nix, Denver’s rookie phenom has been one of the season’s biggest surprises. After looking overmatched in Week 1, the Oregon product has continued to progress as a passer. Now, he enters Week 16 as a legitimate Offensive Rookie of the Year candidate, throwing for 2972 yards and 20 touchdowns for a playoff-bound squad. It’s clear that the 24-year-old has earned some trust with Payton, as the Broncos rank tenth in the league in pass attempts over their past three games (36.7).
Behind every great quarterback is a quality wide receiver, and that’s Courtland Sutton. The former Pro Bowler is enjoying the best season of his career, hauling in 66 catches for 878 yards and six touchdowns. The seven-year veteran is Nix’s go-to scoring threat, garnering a team-leading 19 red zone targets; the next-closest pass catcher has seven.
If Los Angeles shuts down the run, expect the Broncos to make an effort to feed their top weapon on offense. Sutton has grabbed six touchdowns over his previous eight games against the Chargers, including the last time these teams met in Week 6. Don’t be surprised if Denver looks his way often in this pivotal primetime clash.
The Play: Courtland Sutton anytime touchdown (+165)
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