The final push for the NFL playoffs is here, and this Thursday Night matchup will play a key role in shaping the picture. The Broncos and Chargers will face off in an AFC West divisional matchup, with both teams having eyes on the postseason.
This is the second matchup between these two teams. In Week 6, the Chargers defeated the Broncos 23-16. Los Angeles will now host Denver for this matchup and is holding an 8-6 record on the season. The Chargers are coming off back-to-back losses and will play the 9-5 Denver Broncos who enter on a four-game winning streak.
The Chargers enter as 2.5-point favorites in the matchup while the Broncos are +124 underdogs on the Moneyline. The game total is set at 42 points on DraftKings Sportsbook.
There are far more ways to get involved in the action than just traditional betting. One of the more unique features on DraftKings this year is Pick6 Fantasy Football! This article will look at my top Pick6 choices where you simply choose if a player will produce more or less regarding a set statistic.
Broncos at Chargers Pick6 Plays:
Based on ESPN’s calculations, the Denver Broncos hold a 93% chance of making the playoffs and the Los Angeles Chargers hold 88% odds entering this week. This matchup will just about directly decide seeding between them from a playoff perspective. Denver currently holds a one-game lead in the standings, but a Chargers victory would tie the record and Los Angeles would have taken both head-to-head matchups if this proves to be the case.
Both the Broncos and Chargers have taken some notable strides forward throughout the season. Bo Nix and Justin Herbert have each been given more freedom within the offense and both teams have dangerous defenses. Each team has shaped up into more legitimate playoff threats than most expected entering the season and this will be a huge measuring stick matchup for both sides.
With the stage fully set, here are my picks for Week 16’s Thursday Night Football Pick6 slate.
Justin Herbert More Than 230.5 Passing Yards
So far this season Justin Herbert has completed 255 of his 399 pass attempts for 2,959 passing yards and 16 passing touchdowns. He has thrown just two interceptions on the season and a league-best 0.5% interception rate. Overall, he is averaging 211.4 passing yards per game. Herbert was limited in his opportunities to throw the ball through the early parts of the season, and the first matchup with the Broncos marked his first breakout from the limited role.
Through the opening four games, Herbert attempted 27 or fewer passes in each game and was limited to 179 passing yards or fewer. In the Week 6 matchup following their bye, Herbert completed 21 of his 34 pass attempts for 237 passing yards and a touchdown. Across the nine weeks following this matchup, Herbert is averaging 238.2 passing yards per game and has thrown the ball 30+ times in six of the nine games.
Looking at the matchup, the Broncos are tied for the fewest points allowed in the league, rank eighth in yards allowed, 16th in passing yards conceded, and ninth in passing touchdowns given up. They are a solid defensive team, but Herbert threw for more than 230.5 passing yards in the first game and has only seen his role in the offense grow from there. Even considering he is battling injuries, expect the Chargers to continue to allow Herbert to steer the offense and receive plenty of opportunities to throw the ball. He has reached this number in five games this season and look for Herbert to be ready to deliver with the primetime lights shining on him.
Courtland Sutton More Than 63.5 Receiving Yards
Courtland Sutton has emerged as the clear-cut top wide receiver in the Broncos’ offense. This outlook was solidified this offseason when the team elected to trade Jerry Jeudy to the Cleveland Browns and Sutton has delivered this season. Overall he has tallied 66 receptions for 878 receiving yards and six touchdowns. No other member of the Broncos roster has exceeded 40 receptions, 377 receiving yards, or three receiving touchdowns.
Sutton has been especially impressive in recent weeks. Leading into this matchup, Sutton has recorded 70 or more yards in six of the past seven games. Looking back at the Week 6 matchup, Sutton tallied four receptions for 53 receiving yards and a touchdown against the Chargers. Los Angeles is tied with Denver for the fewest points allowed on the season. They rank tenth in passing yards allowed, 12th in passing touchdowns conceded, and seventh in net yards per pass attempt.
Sutton has seen his opportunity grow as Bo Nix has improved throughout the season. He has recorded more than 63.5 receiving yards seven times this season with six of these coming across the past seven weeks. Expect Denver to continue allowing Nix to air the ball out more and for Sutton to remain the clearcut top target within the offense. Look for him to record more than 63.5 receiving yards tonight and continue chasing his second career 1,000-yard receiving season.
Stone Smartt Less Than 3.5 Receptions
One of the more recent breakout stories of the season has been the production of Stone Smartt. The third-year tight end was held to just three total catches across the first 12 games. Across the past two matchups, he has tallied eight receptions for 104 receiving yards. The 37% and 67% of offensive snaps Smartt logged the past two weeks mark season-highs with the 67% marking the highest rate in his career.
This door has largely been opened due to the injury to Will Dissly. The 28-year-old has tallied 43 receptions for 418 yards and a touchdown this season. Dissly suffered a shoulder injury in Week 14 which kept him out last week. While he has not officially been ruled out for the matchup yet, Dissly does not seem to be on track to return to the field on the short week.
While Smartt will continue to see his role grow if Dissly is to miss, the number has gotten a bit too inflated for my liking. Through his three years in the NFL, Smartt has tallied just 26 total receptions with eight of these coming over the past two weeks. Expect for Herbert to rely on his more familiar pass-catchers with Smartt taking a bit of a backseat. Getting a cushion of 3.5 receptions is perfectly comfortable and count on Smartt to record less than this number.
Quentin Johnston More Than 41.5 Receiving Yards
Now in his second season in the NFL, Quentin Johnston has shown some exciting steps in his development. Through the 12 games he has played this season, Johnston has tallied 34 receptions for 459 receiving yards and eight touchdowns. He enters this game having scored a touchdown in back-to-back weeks and recorded more than 41.5 receiving yards in both games.
This is a difficult matchup for the Chargers. Denver is tied for the fewest points allowed, ranks eighth in yards allowed, and 16th in passing yards given up. Star cornerback Patrick Surtain II is tied for eighth in the league in interceptions and is holding opposing QBs to the fourth-worst passer rating in the league. Even still, Johnston is coming off a season-high ten targets and has recorded more than 41.5 receiving yards in four of the past seven games.
During the first matchup between these two teams, Pat Surtain II suffered a concussion on the first defensive snap. While it is impossible to take much from this, Surtain II was matched up with Ladd McConkey in this play. McConkey returned from injury last week and Johnston still recorded his season-high in targets. Looking at this matchup, expect Surtain to have his eyes on McConkey and for Johnston to have his moments where he shines. Based on what his role in the offense has grown to be, feel confident in Johnston recording more than 41.5 receiving yards for the third consecutive week and the seventh time this season.
Bo Nix More Than 32.5 Pass Attempts
Without much expectations entering the season, the Denver Broncos’ clear focus was the evaluation and development of Bo Nix. Now entering Week 16 and firmly in the playoff mix, the training wheels have come off. Overall this season, Nix has completed 297 of his 467 pass attempts for 2,972 passing yards, 20 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions. He is averaging 33.4 pass attempts per game on the season and has thrown for more than 32.5 pass attempts in four straight games leading into this matchup. He also attempted 33 pass attempts in the first matchup with the Chargers.
Los Angeles also has a strong defense, but there is more trust in Nix at this point than was the case for most of the year. The Chargers had no problem grabbing control of the game in the first matchup with the Broncos and have a great chance to do the same this week with the home crowd behind them. While 33 or more pass attempts are within Nix’s range in a normal game, expect the pathway to be clear if the Broncos are playing from behind. He has thrown for more than 32.5 pass attempts in ten of the 14 games this season and each of the past four matchups. Count on Nix to add to this on Thursday Night.
Marvin Mims Jr. More Than 24.5 Receiving Yards
Another notable breakout player in the late weeks of the season has been Marvin Mims Jr. The second-year wide receiver was limited to three total catches through the opening six games of the season. Since that point, he has tallied 20 catches which he has converted to 261 yards. In Week 13 against the Browns, Mims erupted for 105 receiving yards and a touchdown.
Overall, Mims has recorded more than 24.5 receiving yards just three times this season. However, all three of these performances have come across in the past four weeks. The lone week that he did not reach it during this period, Mims still tallied four receptions for 20 yards. He did not record a catch in the first matchup with the Chargers but was targeted three times.
The team’s willingness to allow Nix to make plays has opened doors for all pass-catchers and Mims has been one of the primary beneficiaries. He has received four or more targets in four of the past five weeks and has shown some chemistry with Nix. It could take just one catch for Mims to break free for 24.5 yards. Expect him to remain in the game plan, continue to see some volume of opportunity, and for the second-year wideout to eclipse 24.5 receiving yards for the fourth time in five games.
What is DraftKings Pick6?
Pick6 is a peer-to-peer fantasy variant where you build a lineup (your “Pick Set”) of 2 to 6 players and select whether or not you believe each will outperform their listed stat projection. Enter your Pick Set in Pick6 contests to compete against other users. Get enough picks correct and win a share of cash prizes.
How to Play DraftKings Pick6
Create a Pick Set
Create a Pick Set by choosing between 2-6 players from the same sport and Pick Group (a set of picks available from a group of set competitions). For each player, simply select if you think they’ll have more or less than their listed stat projection. In each Pick Set, you can not pick the same player twice and you must pick players from at least two different teams.
Enter an Amount
Once you finalize your Pick Set, choose your entry fee amount. Your entries will be automatically distributed into available contests, subject to your confirmation.
Sweat Your Picks
When the games go live, use the My Picks tab to follow your picks in real time to track how your players are performing against their projections and how they stack up against other users.
Compete for Prizes
Make enough correct picks and win a share of the contests’ guaranteed prizes. Any prizes won will be credited to your DraftKings account after contests are finalized.
Play at DraftKings Pick6 or by downloading the DraftKings Pick6 app on Apple or Google!
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is seanbarnard) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.Must be at least 18 years or older. Higher age limits may apply in some states. Eligibility restrictions apply. Valid only in states where DraftKings Pick6 operates. Void where prohibited. For entertainment purposes only. Winning a contest on DraftKings depends on knowledge and exercise of skill. See terms at pick6.draftkings.com.
