The NFL playoffs are on the horizon and every game carries more significance at this stage of the season. All 32 teams will face off this week with the regular season winding down and the full playoff seedings, or draft order for other teams, needing to be decided.
These are my picks to win every Week 16 NFL game straight up, tiered by confidence level and ranked within each tier. You can bet on any of these games at DraftKings Sportsbook.
NFL Week 16 Confidence Picks
High Confidence
Bengals over Browns – The Cincinnati Bengals enter this week with a 6-8 record and are desperately trying to keep their playoff hopes alive. In contrast, the Browns have already shifted their attention to next season and elected to bench Jameis Winston in favor of Dorian Thompson-Robinson this week. While the outlook is bleak, the Bengals cannot afford any slip-ups and will have a focused effort on the field against their 3-11 opponents. Expect them to leave their foot on the gas from start to finish and produce their third consecutive victory.
Bills over Patriots – The Buffalo Bills enter with an 11-3 record and have already clinched the AFC East and playoff opportunity. On the other side of the divisional race sits the 3-11 New England Patriots who have not won a football game since November 10th. The Patriots have made plenty of head-scratching decisions in the past weeks and have little room for optimism for the remainder of the year. In contrast, Josh Allen is looking to cement his MVP campaign and have the team ready for a deep playoff run. Don’t expect the Patriots to be able to produce a scare and for the Bills to make this matchup a blowout early.
Lions over Bears – The injury bug continues to bite the Detroit Lions, but they hold a 12-2 record and have clinched their playoff opportunity. There is still plenty to play for as they are tied with the Minnesota Vikings for the best record in the NFC North. While the Chicago Bears were expected to be in this same mix, they hold a record of just 4-10 and have looked even more disastrous than the record indicates. Caleb Williams rightfully looks frustrated and there are significant issues on both sides of the ball. Expect Detroit to take care of business with as many active bodies as they have and for Chicago’s season to continue going up in flames.
Buccaneers over Cowboys – The Tampa Bay Buccaneers enter this week with an 8-6 record and hold a narrow lead in the NFC South. They will face off with a Dallas Cowboys team that enters with a 6-8 record but has won three of their past four. However, these victories came against the Panthers, the Giants, and the Commanders. Tampa Bay is a tier above this and enters riding a four-game winning streak. The Atlanta Falcons are right on their heels in the division and received a jolt of life following the quarterback change. Don’t expect the Buccaneers to take this matchup for granted and to control this game from start to finish.
Eagles over Commanders – The Philadelphia Eagles are clicking on all cylinders and coming off a statement victory over the Steelers last week. Jalen Hurts threw for 290 passing yards in the victory and put to bed the concerns of him leading the offensive charge with his arm against one of the better defenses in this league. This will be the second matchup between these two teams with Philadelphia producing a 26-18 victory just over a month ago. While Washington is no pushover, the Eagles are still playing for playoff seeding and this window seems more open than ever given the Lions’ injuries. Expect them to capitalize and take down their NFC East rival for the second time this year.
Packers over Saints – If the Green Bay Packers were in several other divisions, they would be leading the pack with their 10-4 record. Unfortunately, they trail both the Lions and Vikings in the NFC North who sit at 12-2. The Packers are still looking to fight their way to a Wild Card spot and will face the 5-9 Saints. New Orleans’ season has been widely derailed due to injuries while the Packers will continue to be hungry for wins. Green Bay has played some convincing football this season and will be prepared to produce another victory this week.
Medium Confidence
Ravens Over Steelers – Both the Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers have emerged as contenders in the AFC. Pittsburgh has clinched a playoff birth with their 10-4 record but has to pick themselves up off the mat after the loss to the Eagles last week. Baltimore enters with a 9-5 record and lost to the Steelers in Week 11. While Russell Wilson has done an impressive job raising the ceiling of this Steelers team, Baltimore has flashed to be a Super Bowl contender throughout the season and this is a huge game for them as they try to win the division. With the home crowd behind them, expect the Ravens to find a way to produce a win.
Rams over Jets – After the season looked to be off the rails in the early weeks, the Los Angeles Rams are back in the playoff hunt. They are tied with the Seattle Seahawks with an 8-6 record but hold a narrow lead due to the tiebreaker. Los Angeles does not have time to rest and have a great opportunity to get a win as they face off with the 4-10 Jets. While New York scrapped their way to a victory over the Jaguars last week, they have struggled on both sides of the ball this season. With the defense not being capable of getting regular stops and the Jets ranking 22nd in scoring, expect the Rams to come out victorious this week.
Vikings over Seahawks – Both of these teams are currently tied for the best record in their respective divisions but sit in second place due to tiebreakers. A win would go a long way for either side, but Minnesota has provided a more clear outlook for who they are as a team. The Vikings hold a 12-2 record and rank eighth in scoring and fourth in points allowed on the season. In contrast, the Seahawks rank 14th in scoring and 15th in points allowed and are coming off a frustrating 30-13 loss to the Packers last week. While the Vikings are not perfect, they have been more convincing overall on the season and carry a seven-game winning streak into this matchup. Expect them to continue to shine and stay in the victory column against Seattle.
Falcons over Giants – The Atlanta Falcons finally decided to send Kirk Cousins to the bench after signing him to a lucrative contract this summer. Cousins had tallied just one passing touchdown and nine interceptions across the past five weeks. The keys to the offense will be handed to eighth-overall pick Michael Penix Jr. The rookie quarterback has about as ideal of a debut situation as he could ask for. New York is tied for the worst record in the NFL at 2-12 and ranks dead last in scoring and 20th in points allowed. There is plenty of talent on this Falcons roster and they remain in the playoff hunt. Don’t expect the Giants to be capable of matching Atlanta’s scoring output and for Penix to provide a spark to this team.
Chargers over Broncos – The Los Angeles Chargers will face off with the Denver Broncos on Thursday Night Football this week. While both teams trail the 13-1 Chiefs in the AFC West, they each also hold playoff aspirations. The Broncos hold a 9-5 record while the Chargers sit at 8-6 on the year. The Chargers pulled out a 23-16 victory in Denver back in Week 6 and will be hoping for the same result in this one. Both teams have shown improvement throughout the season, but expect Bo Nix’s lack of experience to be shown against an impressive Chargers defense and for Los Angeles to bounce back from back-to-back losses with playoff seeding at stake.
Coin-Flip Games
Chiefs over Texans – The injury status of Patrick Mahomes is important to monitor leading up to this game, but this matchup would be a coin-flip to me regardless. The Chiefs with an NFL-best 13-1 record on the season, but rank 11th in point differential. They have a funny way of tempting fate seemingly every week but it has not hurt them yet. In contrast, the Texans have underperformed relative to expectation but still sit at 9-5 on the year and have clinched the AFC South. It is to be determined how dangerous they will be in the playoffs and there are too many question marks in this game.
Cardinals over Panthers – The Arizona Cardinals enter this matchup with a 7-7 record and trail the Rams and Seahawks in the NFC West. Kyler Murray has seen some regression in his decision-making and has not been able to sustain a high level of play. Arizona will now face off with a 3-11 Carolina Panthers team that feels destined for a victory. While they will not reach their goals for this season, Bryce Young is playing the best football of his NFL career. All focus is on continuing to build up their franchise quarterback and if things break right Young could lead the team to a win this week.
49ers over Dolphins – Injuries have fully derailed this season for the 49ers and they enter this week with a 6-8 record and in last place in the NFC West. The Dolphins share the same record and also have taken a notable step back from last year. Both teams hold narrow playoff hopes and would need some significant help getting in. While Miami has a higher chance at the playoffs, the 49ers have shown more positive signs throughout the season. Whoever wants this game more can probably take it with there being some notable issues on both sides.
Colts over Titans – There may not be a player in the NFL with a wider range of highs and lows as Anthony Richardson. While Jameis Winston may want to throw his hat in the ring for this discussion, the Colts will continue to live with the ups and downs of their young quarterback. Tennessee decided to put an end to this on their end benching Will Levis in favor of Mason Rudolph. It is tough to have any level of expectation for either of these teams and whichever side can get any sort of consistent output from the quarterback position will likely win this matchup.
Jaguars over Raiders – Don’t expect this matchup to get much screen time as the 2-12 Raiders will face the 3-11 Jaguars. Both of these teams would benefit more from losing this game from the wider view and neither team has consistently put forth an NFL-quality level of performance. These are two bad football teams and whichever side is able to limit their mistakes the most will come out victorious.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is seanbarnard) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
