Look, I’m not trying to be a pessimist — despite what it might seem like in these articles. However, after three weeks of the Kareem Hunt and Isiah Pacheco tandem backfield, I think I’m ready to lay down a marker: This backfield is terrible for fantasy.
I don’t think anyone expected to Hunt to simply vanish off the face of the Earth when Pacheco returned to full health, but we’ve now reached the point where believing the latter is going to get back to anything close to his previous bell cow role is a fool’s errand. At least this season. Consider that Pacheco logged a 79.6% snap share in Week 1 versus the Ravens. In his last three games that figure has been 36.6%, 46.4% and 37.3%, respectively. Obviously Week 15’s snap rate is the most damning, as Pacheco’s first two contests could have at least been perceived as a “ramp-up” period.
Since the beginning of Week 13 this RB committee has almost been a perfect split. Pacheco’s played 86 offensive snaps to Hunt’s 75. Pacheco’s seen 34 carries to Hunt’s 25. Neither’s reached double-digit FPTS in a single game and both have seen just a single high-leverage rushing attempt inside the opponent’s 10-yard line.
That last point is part of a larger issue that’s been plaguing the Chiefs — at least in the regular season — for the better part of two years. They’re simply no longer an elite offense. Kansas City is averaging 2.5 touchdowns per contest in 2024, which is tied with the Saints for the 13th-best mark in football. The team is averaging a respectable 3.9 red zone trips per game, yet it’s clear Andy Reid has a preference for throwing the ball near the goal line, as Patrick Mahomes ranks second in the league in red zone passing attempts (83). There’s just not much volume left over for a touchdown-dependant running back, let alone two.
Specific to Saturday’s tilt with the Texans, I don’t think Pacheco or Hunt is viable, regardless of whether we’re talking the season-long fantasy playoffs or DFS. By opponent yards per play, Houston has the NFL’s third-best defense. The Texans are also conceding the fourth-fewest FPTS per game to opposing backfields. There’s a reason the implied total for this contest is one of the lowest in Week 16.
Start or Sit Kareem Hunt and Isiah Pacheco? Sit.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
