Week 16 of the NFL season will kick off with a thrilling AFC West matchup. Both the Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Chargers have exceeded expectations this season and are firmly in the playoff mix. While they each trail the 13-1 Kansas City Chiefs for the top of the division, this game’s outcome will play a key role in seeding for the Wild Card spots.
Currently, the Denver Broncos hold a 9-5 record and a one-game lead over the 8-6 Los Angeles Chargers. This will be the second matchup between these two teams this season with the Chargers producing a 23-16 victory back in Week 6 in Denver. Both these teams have been playing better football since this point with Bo Nix coming into his own and Justin Herbert being granted more freedom in the offense. With playoff seeding on the line, the Chargers would benefit greatly from sweeping the season series with the home crowd behind them.
The Chargers enter this game as 2.5-point favorites in the matchup and -142 on the moneyline. The Broncos are +120 underdogs on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook and the game total is set at 41.5 points. With the stage set, here are my favorite prop bets for the Thursday Night thriller.
Courtland Sutton Over 64.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
The Denver Broncos made it clear that they viewed Courtland Sutton as the top pass catcher this summer when they elected to move on from Jerry Jeudy in a trade. The 29-year-old has delivered in this role and proven to be a reliable weapon for his rookie quarterback this season. Overall, he has tallied 66 receptions for 878 receiving yards, and six touchdowns. No other member of the Broncos roster has exceeded 40 receptions, 377 receiving yards, or three receiving touchdowns.
With Bo Nix continuing to progress in his development, Sutton has been especially impactful in recent weeks. He has recorded 70 or more receiving yards in six of the last seven games. Looking back at the Week 6 matchup, he was held to four receptions for 53 yards against Denver. However, Nix is currently playing at a higher level and Sutton has been targeted eight or more times in each of the past seven games.
The Chargers have a strong defense which is tied with Denver and Philadelphia for the fewest points given up. They also rank 10th in passing yards allowed, 12th in passing touchdowns given up, and seventh in net yards per pass attempt. Even still, expect there to be enough volume for Sutton to chip away and reach this number. He has recorded over 64.5 receiving yards seven times this season with six of these coming across the past seven weeks. Expect him to continue chasing his second career 1,000-yard season and put a notable dent in it by recording over 64.5 receiving yards against the Chargers.
Justin Herbert Over 232.5 Passing Yards (-110)
The Los Angeles Chargers entered this season with an extremely conservative approach to their offense. In the opening four games, Justin Herbert was limited to 27 or fewer pass attempts and did not throw for more than 179 yards in a game. His first breakout came in Week 6 against the Broncos when Herbert completed 21 of his 34 pass attempts for 237 passing yards and a touchdown. Across the nine weeks following the matchup, Herbert is averaging 238.3 passing yards per game and has thrown the ball 30+ times in six of the nine games.
Denver also possesses a tough defense. In addition to being tied for the fewest points allowed, they rank eighth in total yards allowed, 16th in passing touchdowns conceded, and ninth in passing touchdowns given up. While the numbers look strong, Denver has faded a bit in recent weeks. Just two weeks ago Jameis Winston threw for 497 passing yards against them and the week before that Gardner Minshew passed for 290 yards.
Hebert has shown impressive control of the football, currently leading the NFL in interception rate, and has been granted more freedom in the offense as the weeks have progressed. He threw for over 232.5 passing yards in the first matchup with the Broncos and has built off this in the weeks following. Even with him battling injuries, expect Herbert to be prepared to do enough to give the team a chance to win and for this to involve airing things out. Expect Herbert to throw for over 232.5 for the second time against the Broncos and the sixth time this season with the bright lights on prime time on him.
Quinten Johnston Anytime TD (+255)
In his second NFL season, Quentin Johnston is beginning to put it all together. Through the opening 12 games, he has recorded 34 receptions for 459 receiving yards and eight receiving touchdowns. Johnston enters this matchup having scored touchdowns in back-to-back games and is also coming off a career-high 10 targets last week.
While Denver’s defense is impressive overall, it is Patrick Surtain II who headlines their ability to stop the pass. The star cornerback is tied for eighth in the league in interceptions and has held opposing QBs to the fourth-worst passer rating in the league. In the first matchup between these two teams, Surtain sustained a concussion on the first defensive play in the first matchup between these two teams. It is impossible to take too much away from this but Surtain was matched up with Ladd McConkey on this play and it shouldn’t be a surprise if this is his primary task again this week. McConkey returned from injury last week and has been the best pass-catcher on the Chargers this season.
Regardless of how the coverage shakes out, count on Johnston to be to top red zone option for the Chargers. He makes use of his 6-foot-3 frame and can make his way into the end zone in a variety of ways. Johnston has scored at least one touchdown in seven of the 12 games he has played this year and five of the past seven games. At +255 odds, this is great value based on his track record for getting in the end zone and where Johnston ranks on the Chargers pecking order. Count on him to deliver on Thursday night with this passing attack continuing to become a bigger and bigger part of the Chargers’ overall offense.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is seanbarnard) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
